NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Travorum]

https://i.postimg.cc/sgPtRP8N/Melissa.jpg
Melissa is supposed to be going N at 78.1W and continues moving WNW. This should move the landfall point farther W on Jamaica.

I think not for certain? If it is further south when the trough grabs it, there's more time for it to be pulled east. So there's two opposing factors, the W movement and the lack of N movement.

[zzzh]

This is one of the strongest dropsonde I've ever seen

[ATDoel]

https://i.postimg.cc/sgPtRP8N/Melissa.jpg
Melissa is supposed to be going N at 78.1W and continues moving WNW. This should move the landfall point farther W on Jamaica.

If there's any silver lining, the odds of a direct hit on Kingston are going down every hour.

[kevin]

910.5 mb extrapolated pressure. Again 156 kt peak FL wind, which imo seems sufficient to support 145 kt.

Edit: removed surface pressure estimate using FL winds in the eye.

[Teban54]

AF is about to make its SW to NE pass. Let’s see if we get any differences in the data.

Two 153 kt FL readings in the SW quad. Extrap is 910.9 mb so far.

AF measured two 156 kt FL readings in the NE quad, as well as a slightly lower extrap of 910.5 mb on the way out.

Do two identical readings imply anything differently from a single one?

[zzzh]

910.5 mb extrapolated with 18 kt nearby. Supports 909 - 910 mb. Again 156 kt peak FL wind, which imo seems sufficient to support 145 kt.

again you can't use fl wind for surface pressure adjustment

[kevin]

910.5 mb extrapolated with 18 kt nearby. Supports 909 - 910 mb. Again 156 kt peak FL wind, which imo seems sufficient to support 145 kt.

again you can't use fl wind for surface pressure adjustment

Oh yes you're right, guess I missed your previous message. Thanks for the correction .

[Beef Stew]

I think 145 kts is definitely arguable at this point.

[ScottNAtlanta]

30 degrees C in the eye, that has to be close to a record (the latest reading from vortex msg)

[chaser1]

I am not seeing any WNW component of track over the past several frames. Right now, due west and Melissa is presently passing the NHC recent 5:00 a.m. forecast point.

[dukeblue219]

It's not just the 194kt reading 12mb off the surface that's amazing - it's 170 and 180kt readings all the way down on that drop. Yikes.

[Travorum]

https://i.imgur.com/7SaRnWi.png
This is one of the strongest dropsonde I've ever seen

wow the surface reduction from the WL150 winds supports 145-150kts, I would lean towards 145kts given that its right on the edge between the two and the gust at the surface is only 151kts.

[Stormgodess]

Does anyone know where Josh is riding out the storm? Any other chasers decide to go to Jamaica?

Not chasers but United Cajun Navy has a crew staged in Kingston for search/rescue/recovery. Not sure how large a group though because they still have a large crew in Alaska

[ScottNAtlanta]

30 degrees C in the eye, that has to be close to a record (the latest reading from vortex msg)

Patricia had 32.2, and Typhoon Judy (current warmest on record) had a temp of 34...so not too far off

[Teban54]

NOAA's eye drop is 915 mb with 15 kt winds, strangely similar to the earlier passes an hour ago, and higher than extrap on both planes from this pass.

No signs of eye drying out yet.

[Keldeo1997]

Vdm has 907mb

[zzzh]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1432358847577587866/MELISSA_AF308_2013A_vdm_202510271251.png?ex=6900c3a1&is=68ff7221&hm=7e41ce078a486cc00c47687a437e6e4ae879b3a0c12601c124f161543a58d662&

Vdm has 907mb

extrap pressure

[ScottNAtlanta]

I just looked, and there are 202 guests on this thread...wow

[chaser1]

Does anyone know where Josh is riding out the storm? Any other chasers decide to go to Jamaica?

Not chasers but United Cajun Navy has a crew staged in Kingston for search/rescue/recovery. Not sure how large a group though because they still have a large crew in Alaska

Thats mindblowing.... and really cool too .
I had no clue they as an organization were that large or that organized.

[Teban54]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1432358847577587866/MELISSA_AF308_2013A_vdm_202510271251.png?ex=6900c3a1&is=68ff7221&hm=7e41ce078a486cc00c47687a437e6e4ae879b3a0c12601c124f161543a58d662&

Vdm has 907mb

extrap pressure

The AF plane never measured any sub-910 extrap pressure, though. Even the NOAA didn't go that low (and I wouldn't expect an AF VDM to use NOAA data).

The original VDM message only said 916 mb, and AF's dropsonade data hasn't been available yet. So I have no idea where the 907 could have plausibly come from.