NATL: MELISSA - Models

[Fancy1002]

It’s stuff like what the CMC is doing. That makes me think south Florida isn’t out of the woodwork.

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: same general idea of staying pretty weak and losing TD status at/near Central America but it loses that a little further north just N of NE Honduras

0000UTC 22.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 73.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.10.2025 0 13.9N 73.6W 1006 33
1200UTC 22.10.2025 12 14.1N 74.3W 1006 33
0000UTC 23.10.2025 24 14.8N 75.0W 1005 32
1200UTC 23.10.2025 36 16.2N 75.9W 1005 34
0000UTC 24.10.2025 48 15.4N 76.2W 1005 29
1200UTC 24.10.2025 60 16.3N 76.9W 1006 29
0000UTC 25.10.2025 72 15.6N 77.6W 1005 25
1200UTC 25.10.2025 84 16.2N 78.5W 1006 25
0000UTC 26.10.2025 96 15.3N 80.2W 1005 23
1200UTC 26.10.2025 108 15.3N 81.5W 1004 24
0000UTC 27.10.2025 120 15.7N 82.9W 1004 22
1200UTC 27.10.2025 132 16.3N 84.4W 1005 21
0000UTC 28.10.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING

[SouthFLTropics]

It’s stuff like what the CMC is doing. That makes me think south Florida isn’t out of the woodwork.

At the angle the fronts are coming down, I think it would need to be up around Cozumel for it to become a threat to South Florida. I still feel pretty confident that this misses us to the East. However, it does look like my cruise to the Dominican Republic next week is at the very least going to get rerouted.


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[WaveBreaking]

No comment

[sasha_B]

No comment

https://i.imgur.com/5KXDL5o.png
https://i.imgur.com/bQgXgyf.png

HAFS-B takes it down to 887 hPa / 159 kts and apparently still strengthening by hour 120. Incredible.

[chaser1]

It’s stuff like what the CMC is doing. That makes me think south Florida isn’t out of the woodwork.

At the angle the fronts are coming down, I think it would need to be up around Cozumel for it to become a threat to South Florida. I still feel pretty confident that this misses us to the East. However, it does look like my cruise to the Dominican Republic next week is at the very least going to get rerouted.


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That or, the ship will sail it's itinerary in reverse? My friends are facing the same concerns as you. They're going out of Ft. Lauderdale on Sunday to Bimini, Cozumel, and then Grand Cayman.

[chaser1]

No comment

https://i.imgur.com/5KXDL5o.png
https://i.imgur.com/bQgXgyf.png

HAFS-B takes it down to 887 hPa / 159 kts and apparently still strengthening by hour 120. Incredible.

Thats outright weather-porn.

[MHC Tracking]

0Z UKMET: same general idea of staying pretty weak and losing TD status at/near Central America but it loses that a little further north just N of NE Honduras

0000UTC 22.10.2025

TROPICAL STORM MELISSA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 73.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.10.2025 0 13.9N 73.6W 1006 33
1200UTC 22.10.2025 12 14.1N 74.3W 1006 33
0000UTC 23.10.2025 24 14.8N 75.0W 1005 32
1200UTC 23.10.2025 36 16.2N 75.9W 1005 34
0000UTC 24.10.2025 48 15.4N 76.2W 1005 29
1200UTC 24.10.2025 60 16.3N 76.9W 1006 29
0000UTC 25.10.2025 72 15.6N 77.6W 1005 25
1200UTC 25.10.2025 84 16.2N 78.5W 1006 25
0000UTC 26.10.2025 96 15.3N 80.2W 1005 23
1200UTC 26.10.2025 108 15.3N 81.5W 1004 24
0000UTC 27.10.2025 120 15.7N 82.9W 1004 22
1200UTC 27.10.2025 132 16.3N 84.4W 1005 21
0000UTC 28.10.2025 144 CEASED TRACKING

The UKMET hasn't been trustworthy for a long time wrt intensity, makes the track forecast tough to believe as a result

[kevin]

I can't resist making a hurricane model overview after those runs.

00z, Oct/22/2026, hurricane model blend, Melissa

--- Model peak intensity ---
HWRF = 944mb/111kt
HMON = 913mb/135kt
HAFS-A = 901mb/150kt
HAFS-B = 886mb/163kt

--- Hurricane model blend ---

Oh boy, this could be a big one. But let's keep things grounded for now and look at the short-term forecasted behavior of Melissa. All of the hurricane models are now trending more west and do not show a Hispaniola landfall anymore. For the coming 48 hours the hurricane models keep Melissa weak at 40 - 50 kt as it battles strong shear. Even within this short time span, however, there is still a big difference in the track between the models. HWRF goes quite far north and is the only model which eventually threads the passage between Jamaica and Cuba, all other models travel south of Cuba. HAFS-A & HAFS-B have even more northern short-term tracks and come relatively close to Hispaniola, but even these models then take a sharp turn SW and show Melissa diving south of Jamaica. Unfortunately, the only way to avoid Melissa becoming a high-end MH seems to be a Jamaica landfall in which case we're probably still looking at a devastating cat 2/3 landfall on a highly populated area. And if it misses Jamaica then Melissa will become even stronger and will landfall somewhere else later in its life. So either way, it seems a lose-lose is becoming a more realistic possibility.

The degree to which Melissa can RI varies slightly between models with HWRF showing high-end cat 3/low-end cat 4, while HMON shows a high-end cat 4 and HAFS-A/B both show a cat 5. HAFS-B even gets this to a Wilma-level intensity. There are way too many moving pieces and uncertainties to ring the cat 5 bell now or anytime soon, but I do think that an outcome like this is a realistic possibility considering the background state. The WCar is basically untouched the entire season and, despite not reaching the record levels of 2023 and 2024, the MDR is still the third-warmest it has been since records started. Also note that all hurricane models still show Melissa intensifying at the end of their runs. Barring any unexpected center relocation shenanigans (which should not be ruled out), it looks like Melissa could be our next MH of the season.

Blend
PEAK: 911 mb @ 126 hrs | 134 kt @ 126 hrs
ACE (0 - 126 hrs) = 15.8
Time (hr) / Pressure (mb) / Wind (kt) / Location (lat, lon [deg])
00 / 1000 / 44 / 14.3N, 73.6W
06 / 997 / 44
12 / 995 / 54
18 / 998 / 48 / 14.5N, 73.9W
24 / 998 / 47
30 / 998 / 45
36 / 998 / 45 / 15.4N, 75.4W
42 / 995 / 48
48 / 992 / 50
54 / 990 / 56 / 16.0N, 74.9W
60 / 988 / 59
66 / 983 / 65 - C1
72 / 976 / 73 / 16.6N, 75.6W
78 / 969 / 82
84 / 962 / 95 - C2
90 / 952 / 103 / 16.9N, 76.3W - C3
96 / 945 / 113 - C4
102 / 939 / 116
108 / 931 / 124 / 16.9N, 77.4W
114 / 921 / 129
120 / 916 / 132
126 / 911 / 134 / 17.1N, 78.4W

--- Previous blend analyses ---

None yet

Forecast track (weighted average of the hurricane model tracks)

[kevin]

00z Euro ensemble out to 120 hours. More SW than 18z. Only 19% (10/51) show a landfall on Haiti (down from 30% on 18z and 25% on 12z), and 8% (4/51) show a landfall on Jamaica. The remaining 73% (37/51) go south of Jamaica.

[kevin]

00z GFS ensemble out to 120 hours. Also more SW than 18z. Only 26% (8/31) show a landfall on Haiti (down from 29% on 18z and 39% on 12z), 6% (2/31) more between Cuba and Jamaica, and 13% (4/31) show a landfall on Jamaica. The remaining 55% (17/31) go south of Jamaica. This 55% value of tracks south of Jamaica is up from 39% on the 12z ensemble.

[chaser1]

The 0Z EURO appears to practically stall/drift a weak Melissa for about 96 hr's as it inches close to Jamaica. Then, an eratic slow SW motion until finally rapidly deepening to 932 mb on its NNE approach through Central Cuba at about 192 hours. This seems like a sensible evolution.

[chaser1]

00z GFS ensemble out to 120 hours. Also more SW than 18z. Only 26% (8/31) show a landfall on Haiti (down from 29% on 18z and 39% on 12z), 6% (2/31) more between Cuba and Jamaica, and 13% (4/31) show a landfall on Jamaica. The remaining 55% (17/31) go south of Jamaica. This 55% value of tracks south of Jamaica is up from 39% on the 12z ensemble.

https://i.imgur.com/teVjWZJ.png

0Z EURO Operational appears to align with the latest GFS ensemble trend.

[kevin]

GFS (AVNI) is really impacting the average track with its Hispaniola landfall in 2.5 days, but even with AVNI included TVCN shifts more SW with a track south of Jamaica (it showed a Jamaica landfall at +120hr in the 00z guidance). Pretty much all models are now in agreement (HWFI is the only other one north of Jamaica) so I expect further shifts by the NHC in the upcoming advisories.

[aspen]

06z GFS and ICON still show Melissa quickly turning to the NE into the tip of Haiti. Looks like they show a Cat 2/3 landfall, which would be really bad in the increasingly less likely scenario this solution actually panned out.

[Deshaunrob17]

GFS seems to be coming to agreement with the other models. However, that 6z run was a nasty run for Hispaniola - Yikes

Icon shifted east and it looks like a copy of the 6z GFS hmmm- I wish that was 12z to see where the icon was going with this.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Breathtaking level bomb out for Melissa on the HAFS-A/B... very real possibility with 30C waters that are very deep should this one make it below Jamaica.

[kevin]

Very significant shift SW for GEFS 06z compared to 00z. The 06z operational is still battling the consensus, but if it also flips soon then GFS is also on board with the Euro solution. Stats for the 2 last ensembles out to +84 hr.

Hispaniola landfall = 26% (8/31) in 00z -> 6% (2/31) in 06z
Between Cuba and Jamaica = 6% (2/31) in 00z -> 3% (1/31) in 06z
Jamaica landfall = 13% (4/31) in 00z -> 10% (3/31) in 06z
South of Jamaica = 55% (17/31) in 00z -> 77% (24/31) in 06z
Do not develop = 0% (0/31) in 00z -> 3% (1/31) in 06z

06z


00z

[xironman]

The euro is at 180 hours when it heads north. If that low cuts off and digs further there is a completely different solution. Right around Halloween to, would remind me of sandy.

[tolakram]

The rare GFS wins have been in sheared environments, but not in this location. If the LLC keeps moving west into an area more favorable then the Euro is believable, if the LLC re-forms close to the convection then the GFS is believable. Historic GFS wins are when the LLC continues to re-form near the MLC. In my opinion anyway.