NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[aspen]

The CDO is getting even smoother on recent meso floater frames. This is really pushing what is physically possible for an Atlantic storm.

I’m praying enough people in Jamaica have realized how bad this is and have taken all the necessary precautions, because I don’t like how public officials were downplaying Melissa’s threats a few days ago. Bad communication in a situation like this could lead to a devastating loss of life.

[REDHurricane]

My guess is based on that last pass, the HH will find <900mb on this next pass.

That's assuming the dropsonde even makes it down to the surface... I'll guess 895mb, 160kt if it does

[Hurricane2022]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 OCT 2025 Time : 014020 UTC
Lat : 16:30:00 N Lon : 78:33:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.3 / 878.5mb/179.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.3 8.5 8.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +19.7C Cloud Region Temp : -80.6C

Scene Type : EYE

This is at Patricia/Haiyan levels. Fortunately we have recon now.

[CrazyC83]

The CDO is getting even smoother on recent meso floater frames. This is really pushing what is physically possible for an Atlantic storm.

I’m praying enough people in Jamaica have realized how bad this is and have taken all the necessary precautions, because I don’t like how public officials were downplaying Melissa’s threats a few days ago. Bad communication in a situation like this could lead to a devastating loss of life.

This is in the league of the high-end WPAC super typhoons. I always wonder what it would be like if we had Recon over there...

[InfernoFlameCat]

My guess is based on that last pass, the HH will find <900mb on this next pass.

That's assuming the dropsonde even makes it down to the surface... I'll guess 895mb, 160kt if it does

The eye dropsonde should make it. Eyewall is another story

[Hurricane2022]

My guess is based on that last pass, the HH will find <900mb on this next pass.

That's assuming the dropsonde even makes it down to the surface... I'll guess 895mb, 160kt if it does

I'm thinking something around 155 kt/898 mb. Maybe also 160/895.

[REDHurricane]

My guess is based on that last pass, the HH will find <900mb on this next pass.

That's assuming the dropsonde even makes it down to the surface... I'll guess 895mb, 160kt if it does

The eye dropsonde should make it. Eyewall is another story

Oh yeah duh, that's what I get for posting before I eat dinner lol

Anyone think recon will find below 890mb? I doubt it'll reach Wilma's 882mb given that it was at 907 just an hour-ish ago, but if a storm were to surpass Wilma I'd expect it to look pretty much exactly like this

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Haiyan... Meranti... Goni... and now Melissa.

Only wishing nothing but the best, and my most fervent prayers for Jamaica. I've got friends in the island and I believe in their spirit. I'm keeping touch with them.

Gilbert was the last bad (worst) storm they remember and this is much much worse. This is basically, hopefully not, their Haiyan. May God protect their people.

[Fancy1002]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 OCT 2025 Time : 014020 UTC
Lat : 16:30:00 N Lon : 78:33:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.3 / 878.5mb/179.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.3 8.5 8.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +19.7C Cloud Region Temp : -80.6C

Scene Type : EYE

This is at Patricia/Haiyan levels. Fortunately we have recon now.

We had recon in Patricia.

[ScottNAtlanta]

So, show of hands...how many think this will be the last time Melissa is on the list?

[Hurricane2022]

Giant tornado
 https://x.com/PettusWX/status/1982997845830697001

[USTropics]

That's assuming the dropsonde even makes it down to the surface... I'll guess 895mb, 160kt if it does

The eye dropsonde should make it. Eyewall is another story

Oh yeah duh, that's what I get for posting before I eat dinner lol

Anyone think recon will find below 890mb? I doubt it'll reach Wilma's 882mb given that it was at 907 just an hour-ish ago, but if a storm were to surpass Wilma I'd expect it to look pretty much exactly like this

I watched Wilma happen in real time (back when satellite imagery updated every 30 minutes on GOES-13 if I remember correctly)...this is as close to Wilma as you are going to get in real time.

[sponger]

No words! This is a storm that will certainly be retired when it is all done. A bit of an East wobble so perhaps the turn to the NE has begun. Hunker down Jamaica, we will be here for you when it is all over.

[wx98]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 OCT 2025 Time : 014020 UTC
Lat : 16:30:00 N Lon : 78:33:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
8.3 / 878.5mb/179.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
8.3 8.5 8.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +19.7C Cloud Region Temp : -80.6C

Scene Type : EYE

This is at Patricia/Haiyan levels. Fortunately we have recon now.

We had recon in Patricia.

Patricia continued intensifying for 6 hours after the plane left and another plane didn’t arrive until after 6 more hours, so recon missed the peak.

[dukeblue219]

C'mon guys, recon planes have been making regular passes for a couple hours. She's a monster but this pass is not going to be sub-890.

[ScottNAtlanta]

No words! This is a storm that will certainly be retired when it is all done. A bit of an East wobble so perhaps the turn to the NE has begun. Hunker down Jamaica, we will be here for you when it is all over.

Yeah, I don't think this is a wobble. This is a change of direction. I just hope it doesn't make it closer to Kingston.

[Keldeo1997]

Giant tornado
 https://x.com/PettusWX/status/1982997845830697001

Its a super cell...

[Iceresistance]

Giant tornado
 https://x.com/PettusWX/status/1982997845830697001

Its a super cell...

I remember when one of Milton's MW passes had it look like the exact same thing

[aspen]

We’re mere minutes away from a potentially historic recon pass.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/stormchasernick/status/1982920947322835000


 https://x.com/TannerCharlesMN/status/1982926984150954134