NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Jr0d]

Looking at the last 3 eyewall dropsondes from NOAA's rcon showing 138kt, 138kt, 141kt at the surface I think we can safely say those give a good estimation of sustained winds.

With the Air Force having the 151kt surface dropsonde this tells me that there are likely sustained 360° of cat 5 wind at the surface in the eyewall.

I know its common for storms with this kind of structure to have relatively symmetric winds but its still mind boggling to think of the scale. The eyewall is essentially a strong EF-3, to an EF-4 tornado.

I hope the AF recon can do one more eye pass and they still have dropsondes left, iirc this morning they did not have any left for their final eye pass.

Lets pray we have significant weaking and eyewall deterioration before Melissa hits Jamaica.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I keep hitting the refresh button on GE waiting for the next set of data. It should be in or very close to the eye

[Hurricane2022]

163 kt FL!

[zzzh]

FL 163 in SW

[CrazyC83]

Based on that being on the weaker side, I'd think the next pass might be even higher. Also, if I extrapolate correctly, it's already below 915 and still in the eyewall.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

163 knot flight level winds on the SW side of the storm.

[Teban54]

Somehow the CDO is still getting colder:

[ScottNAtlanta]

They are in the eye, but it's really hard to separate the data since they are running over the same path over and over.

[CrazyC83]

Estimating out the heights, I certainly think this is sub-900 now - perhaps by a fair bit. The last peak run had 2,308m at 697.2 mb (and that was 903 mb).

[Teban54]

Keep in mind that this AF plane's extrap pressure on the last pass was too low: it was extrapolating 903 mb, when two dropsonades from different aircraft confirmed 907 mb.

So hold your breath once you see the pressure, until the dropsonade confirms it.

[ScottNAtlanta]

 https://x.com/stormchasernick/status/1982920947322835000


 https://x.com/TannerCharlesMN/status/1982926984150954134

Was kinda waiting for a Superman fly by with that music...lol

[Travorum]

Keep in mind that this AF plane's extrap pressure on the last pass was too low: it was extrapolating 903 mb, when two dropsonades from different aircraft confirmed 907 mb.

So hold your breath once you see the pressure, until the dropsonade confirms it.

Or the AF plane could just not broadcast extrap pressure and we can wait for the dropsonde apparently.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I know there's reliability questions but 163 knot SFMR is beyond impressive.

[Hurricane2022]

Lolll we had no extrap pressure this time

[CrazyC83]

Pressure not calculated. However, using the previous set and the decrease in heights, that would be an extrapolated 899 mb. Now we wait for the dropsonde.

[Teban54]

Keep in mind that this AF plane's extrap pressure on the last pass was too low: it was extrapolating 903 mb, when two dropsonades from different aircraft confirmed 907 mb.

So hold your breath once you see the pressure, until the dropsonade confirms it.

Or the AF plane could just not broadcast extrap pressure and we can wait for the dropsonde apparently.

Anyway, NE quad has 162 kt FL, similar to SW. Some other recent passes also had surprisingly high FL winds in the SW quad as well.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Such a mixed bag of feelings right now. I am both in awe, and terror. Its a difficult watch.

Each frame, the storm keeps improving. Prayers for Jamaica

[cycloneye]

The pressure did not work so wait for the dropsonde.

[CrazyC83]

Now, what to go with for the intensity? The dropsonde earlier confirmed a spot peak of 151 kt, while the flight-level winds support about 150 kt. I'd go with 155 kt, but a case could be made for 160 kt as well.

[InfernoFlameCat]

When is the next plane?