NATL: MELISSA - Models

[Fancy1002]

Latest icon has it stuck in place for three days.

[Fancy1002]

Is it just me, or is it weird that the GFS looks like it’s developing a large eyed hurricane with Hispañola in the middle of it. The center is fully on land, but the pressure is going down.

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

[boca]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/rmbtz49K/vvv.gif

CMC model?

[SFLcane]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/rmbtz49K/vvv.gif

CMC model?

This is correct its ready to wilma there. Also posted Experimental HAFS-B likely a C5 there in the NW caribbean.

https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/anima ... casthr=000

[Fancy1002]

Midnight euro sends a strong cat 4 into Cuba and then what looks like a double whammy punch to the northeast.

Not to mention, looking at nearly 1-2 feet of rain for nearly the entirety of the northeast.

No thank you.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS with the same scenario crawling over Hispaniola.

The 00z Euro ensembles are in Western Caribbean with many members very strong.

Google Deep Mind at 00z had a west shift, but still are divided with many over Haiti, DR and the rest in Western Caribbean.

[Fancy1002]

06z GFS with the same scenario crawling over Hispaniola.

The 00z Euro ensembles are in Western Caribbean with many members very strong.

Google Deep Mind at 00z had a west shift, but still are divided with many over Haiti, DR and the rest in Western Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/ucu3vhX.jpeg

It also seems like a good number of the euro ensembles tries to take a major into the northeast.

[SFLcane]

00z halfs still showing a monster cane in the NW carib sea heading NW at the end of its run.

[SFLcane]

[jlauderdal]

00z halfs still showing a monster cane in the NW carib sea heading NW at the end of its run.

Good old October delivering again

[Fancy1002]

00z halfs still showing a monster cane in the NW carib sea heading NW at the end of its run.

https://i.postimg.cc/5tC8TPx7/vvvv.gif

Yeah, that’s a monster cane all right. The sheer level of both potential and uncertainty with this storm is going to make the next week a massive headache.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z UKMET once again has just a rather weak low (not even a TC on the textual output; it has yet to show TCG in the Caribbean on this output though it awhile back had several runs with TCG east of the Lesser Antilles) and again into Nicaragua. The last 5 runs have shown a weak low either hitting Nicaragua (0Z 10/19, 12Z 10/18), barely E of Nic. but heading into it (0Z 10/18, 12Z 10/17), or still 200 miles E of Nic. but likely headed into it (0Z 10/17).

Looking at the H5 vorticity, it appears that as the AOI on the TWO comes into the E Car that a portion of it turns sharply right like the GFS but unlike that model it never develops. Then what looks like a split from this, possibly incorporating additional vorticity coming off northern S America, causes the weak low to move into the SW Caribbean, and then into Nicaragua.

So, the UKMET remains a SW outlier. I should add that yesterday’s 12Z JMA is similar and it has been similar all of the way back to the 12Z 10/15 run. So, the JMA has had 4 12Z runs in a row with just a weak low into Nicaragua or just offshore headed there.

Thus the UKMET and JMA have a good chance to both either fail badly or end up doing the best of the major operationals with this.

[jconsor]

AIFS seems off showing too much of a hole in the W Atl ridging N/NW of 98L. The other ML models don't support its scenario of 98L curving sharply NE toward Hispaniola.

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1979887548240650357

[jlauderdal]

It looks like the hurricane models aren’t going to be very helpful for the next couple days.

Global ensembles for now, this is far from settled and you can see the real danger for Cycloneyes area on the way in and the way out if it ejects their way.

[Blown Away]

00z ECENS

[wzrgirl1]

Of course I’m concerned for everybody, but I live in South Florida. Are there any models showing a direct hit on us right now from what I can see there were one or two outliers but I just wanted to get some of your opinions.

[zzzh]

One FVN3 member has 182kt/878mb

[Hurricane2022]

https://i.imgur.com/NajP9Cy.png
One FVN3 member has 182kt/878mb

Sounds reasonable