EPAC: KIKO - Hurricane - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it's trying for T6.5 again. At least it will give recon something fun.

About 3-5 ensemble members from the combined GEFS/EPS suites show a Hawaii impact. CMC still some how has a Hawaii impact. Rest of the models show this passing safely away from Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

GOES 18 1 minute imagery is currently available for Kiko.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 06 2025

Kiko continues to maintain a well-defined eye, but the eyewall
convective tops continue to slowly warm. Satellite intensity
estimates have decreased since the last advisory and are currently
in the 90-115 kt range. Based on a blend of the estimates, the
initial intensity is decreased to 105 kt.

Kiko has moved a little to the right during the past few hours, and
the overall motion is now 295/10 kt. The hurricane is on the south
side of a low- to mid-level ridge, and a mid- to upper-level low
seen in satellite imagery near and north of Hawaii is eroding the
ridge's western end. This pattern should cause Kiko to move
west-northwestward to perhaps northwestward for the next 72 h or so.
After that time, a more westward track is expected as Kiko shears
apart vertically and the weakening cyclone is steered more by the
low-level easterly flow. The new forecast track is similar to the
previous track and lies along the south side of the various
consensus models. While the current forecast track keeps the center
of Kiko north of the Hawaiian Islands, there is still some spread in
the guidance, and thus uncertainty, in forecasts at 3 days and
beyond.

During the next 2 days or so, Kiko should be passing over sea
surface temperatures near 26C while it moves through a dry
mid-level air mass. This combination should cause some weakening.
After that, while the sea surface temperatures get warmer along the
forecast track, strong vertical shear produced by the upper-level
low should cause continued weakening, with Kiko expected to shear
apart vertically by 72-96 hr. The new intensity forecast shows
notably lower intensities than the previous forecast based on the
current intensity and the intensity consensus forecast.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Kiko later today to provide a better look at Kiko's intensity and
structure.

Key Messages:

1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the
early to middle portion of next week. While the forecast track
currently calls for Kiko to pass north of the islands, it is still
too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of potential
impacts from the cyclone's winds or rains. Interests in the
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this
storm.

2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big
Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are
forecast to peak along east-facing exposures of the Hawaiian
Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing
life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 16.1N 141.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 16.8N 142.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 17.7N 144.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 18.8N 146.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 20.1N 149.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 21.4N 151.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 22.5N 153.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 24.4N 158.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 25.5N 162.9W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

Cloud tops have not particularly warmed?

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/Veeringwindswx/status/1964454243177500995

[Fancy1002]

Kiko has been a resilient beauty.

[Kingarabian]

Maintaining T6.0 and at times T6.5 over the past few hours.

[sasha_B]

Maintaining T6.0 and at times T6.5 over the past few hours.

Genuinely remarkable. Kiko is on track to match or exceed its 120 kt secondary (tertiary?) peak assuming there isn't a marked degradation in appearance over the next 3～6 hours. It's too bad that that recon flight didn't end up going forward (though understandable considering the risk of land impacts for Hawai'i, aside from rip currents, is now quite low).

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kiko Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 PM HST Sat Sep 06 2025

...KIKO RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...

Satellite imagery indicates that Kiko has been strengthening during
the past few hours. The satellite-based estimated maximum sustained
winds are now near 125 mph (200 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 150 PM HST...2350 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 141.8W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1110 MI...1780 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...200 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

[sasha_B]

Cloud tops have not particularly warmed?

They're warmer than they were at its official peak on September 4th, but yeah, there wasn't significant warming between 12z and 18z today - and if there was, they've since cooled back down to the -75°C (give or take) they've been hovering around. However, if the strengthening continues, there'll be an opportunity for the NHC to note it at 03z.

Edit: Seems they didn't wait for the full advisory! Good to see the increase in intensity was noted.

[Kingarabian]

Eye has been WMG for the past hours Could get a 6.5 from SAB in about 30 minutes if the W ring stops breaking.

[cycloneye]

Maintaining T6.0 and at times T6.5 over the past few hours.

Genuinely remarkable. Kiko is on track to match or exceed its 120 kt secondary (tertiary?) peak assuming there isn't a marked degradation in appearance over the next 3～6 hours. It's too bad that that recon flight didn't end up going forward (though understandable considering the risk of land impacts for Hawai'i, aside from rip currents, is now quite low).

Recon will depart around 10:15 PM EDT.

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77
A. 07/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0111E KIKO
C. 07/0215Z
D. 16.0N 143.3W
E. 07/0530Z TO 07/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION (CHANGED)

[Kingarabian]

SAB didn't break constraints and came in with T6.0.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/hurricane_chase/status/1964484297286701426

[Yellow Evan]

Probably reaching a fourth peak around 120 knots here in conjunction with the instantaneous DT of 6.5. I'd go higher if the eye was fully cleared tbh.

[Sciencerocks]

125 knts in my opinion.

[Kingarabian]

Might get a new peak here. Looks like we'll get recon just in time.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kiko Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP112025
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
330 PM HST Sat Sep 06 2025

...KIKO STRENGTHENS BACK TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC...

Satellite imagery indicates that Kiko has continued to
strengthen, and is now a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The satellite-based estimated
maximum sustained winds are now near 130 mph (215 km/h). The
next advisory will be issued by 5 pm HST (0300 UTC) with the
updated forecast.

SUMMARY OF 330 PM HST...0130 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 142.1W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

[StormWeather]

Might get a new peak here. Looks like we'll get recon just in time.

What’s crazy is that Kiko is on the 26C isotherm exactly and is trying for another Category 4 peak. Let that sink in.

This is also supposed to be another -PDO season but with two CPAC named storms, a July CPAC MH, a EPAC-origin Hurricane north of Hawaii and another MH in the CPAC on the 26C isotherm it has been anything but normal. Let that sink in as well.

[Kingarabian]

Might get a new peak here. Looks like we'll get recon just in time.

What’s crazy is that Kiko is on the 26C isotherm exactly and is trying for another Category 4 peak. Let that sink in.

This is also supposed to be another -PDO season but with two CPAC named storms, a July CPAC MH, a EPAC-origin Hurricane north of Hawaii and another MH in the CPAC on the 26C isotherm it has been anything but normal. Let that sink in as well.

More importantly, in a -PMM as well.