NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[mrbagyo]

what's the strongest an Atlantic hurricane has been at landfall? 892mb for the labor day hurricane?

That's the current world record for lowest land based barometric pressure reading.

The ~878 hpa ASTI AWS reading in Itbayat island during Meranti was never verified/ validated.

[weeniepatrol]

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MELISSA STRONGER AS THE NORTHERN EYEWALL IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA... ...900 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

9:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 28
Location: 17.6°N 78.1°W
Moving: NNE at 7 mph
Min pressure: 896 mb
Max sustained: 180 mph

[Beef Stew]

I think we're about to see TC wind damage that rivals the most severe on record, especially given the rapid rise in elevation in Jamaica.

[GCANE]

TCUAT3
Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
900 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MELISSA STRONGER AS THE
NORTHERN EYEWALL IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA...
...900 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

The eye of Melissa is nearing the southern coast of Jamaica and is
expected to make landfall within the next few hours. This is an
extremely dangerous and a life-threatening situation. Take action
now to protect your life! Residents in the Jamaica should not leave
their shelter as winds will rapidly increase within the eyewall of
Melissa. Remain in place through the passage of these life-
threatening conditions.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that
Melissa is strengthening with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph
(290 km/h). Estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft
data has fallen to 896 mb (26.47 inches).

Another position update will be provided at 1000 AM EDT (1400 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 78.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...290 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...896 MB...26.47 INCHES

[TampaWxLurker]

I'm impressed by how compact it is. In this day and age of giant, sprawling monstercanes like Ian and Irma, etc, it feels rare to see a super-powerful storm have concentrated hurricane force winds of only 25-30 miles around the center, like Andrew.

[Hurricane2022]

So they did a second loop in the eye... Still with ridiculous readings.

https://i.postimg.cc/28X11pnm/MELISSA-AF303-2413A-flw-202510281257.png

Wondering if they were stuck there due to extreme eyewall turbulence

[FrontRunner]

Thank God for recon in general but especially for making this final trip to confirm the sub-900 pressure! Without it NHC would have likely held 900/901 up to landfall.

[Teban54]

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MELISSA STRONGER AS THE NORTHERN EYEWALL IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA... ...900 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

9:00 AM EDT Tue Oct 28
Location: 17.6°N 78.1°W
Moving: NNE at 7 mph
Min pressure: 896 mb
Max sustained: 180 mph

It's official. Melissa is now the 6th most intense hurricane on record, just behind Wilma, Gilbert, Labor Day, Rita and Milton.

If Melissa maintains this intensity until landfall, it will be the 2nd most intense landfall on record, just behind Labor Day.

2024-25 are now the only two consecutive years with sub-900 storms.

Edit: The wind speed of 155 kt (180 mph) also makes Melissa tied as the 6th strongest in wind, behind Allen, Labor Day, Gilbert, Wilma and Dorian.

[ATDoel]

any good live streams?

[ROCK]

That 30 mile swath of 180mph with higher gust will be wiped clean. Nothing left. I hope they got out.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Melissa always makes me want to run out of words after every advisory. And she did exactly just that yet again. Who would've thought we'd relive the Labor Day hurricane? This is bonkers.

[Nuno]

I'm impressed by how compact it is. In this day and age of giant, sprawling monstercanes like Ian and Irma, etc, it feels rare to see a super-powerful storm have concentrated hurricane force winds of only 25-30 miles around the center, like Andrew.

Structure and size wise it feels most like Andrew. Absolutely awful for Jamaica

[Beef Stew]

Recon circling the eye- continual sub-900 extrapolated pressures. What I wouldn't give to be a crew member on that flight... what an incredible hurricane. I'm in shock.

[michelinj]

Just tracking the plane of flightaware: https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/975303 and looks like this next update will still be in the eye. Hard to tell because radar is a bit delayed on the wbsite but potentially an attempt at going into the NW eyewall before heading back into the eye? Strange

[grapealcoholic]

there's a hydro power plant in direct path

[ATDoel]

That 30 mile swath of 180mph with higher gust will be wiped clean. Nothing left. I hope they got out.

concrete walls will stay up but very few roofs will. Hopefully everyone gets out.

Hurricanes at equivalent wind speeds do far less wind damage than tornadoes, this isn't a massive EF4 tornado.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1983158398935019655

[syfr]

any good live streams?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psWnPJfuuZU

[kevin]

892.3 mb extrapolated now!

[Keldeo1997]

892 extap