NATL: MELISSA - Hurricane - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Getting close... Bluefields/Belmont is my landfall call... Melissa consistently has tracked W of each NHC advisory track for days...

[tolakram]

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source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-0-100-1&checked=usint-map&colorbar=undefined

[mrbagyo]

[Beef Stew]

Unless she wobbles back to the east, it's going to be hard for Montego Bay to avoid the eyewall at this rate.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

​Josh Morgerman's position in Crawford noted (though I don't know where exact he is in the town):

[tallywx]

Josh seems to be in the “Mexico Beach” spot. Places like New Hope would be the “Tyndall AFB” spot for looking straight up into the stadium eye.

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/rawsalerts/status/1983200652491686179

[tomatkins]

Anyone else think this thing could landfall in Cuba as a strong cat 5?

Mid-range cat 4 at minimum, but at 185mph, I think hitting Cuba as a cat 5 is not out of the question anymore.

Will be interesting to see what the 12Z hurricane models say. The 06zs all had this as a low cat 4 or even cat 3, with no restrengtheing between Jamaica and Cuba - but they are all also east of the actal path (through more mountainous terrain and over land longer).

[ATDoel]

Josh seems to be in the “Mexico Beach” spot. Places like New Hope would be the “Tyndall AFB” spot for looking straight up into the stadium eye.

Yeah, he may not get a real good eye shot but he definitely will have footage from the strongest part of the eyewall..... hopefully he made it.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Treasure Beach, Jamaica is not getting anything close to 185 mph winds.

[HurricaneRyan]

Melissa strengthening all the way up to landfall

Did not expect to wake up to that low pressure

[Hurricane2022]

Any update from Josh?

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1983186444270350779

[GCANE]

Cloud tops warming now on the eastern portion of Melissa.

[Exalt]

Everyone saying WPAC or Patricia, but what this actually reminds me of, at least at landfall, is Winston, shape and all

[Nimbus]

Josh seems to be in the “Mexico Beach” spot. Places like New Hope would be the “Tyndall AFB” spot for looking straight up into the stadium eye.

Crawford received the clear eye briefly.
Eastern eyewall at landfall is the worst place to be you never catch a break.
Josh will be OK, probably helping out where he can.

[aspen]

That persistent westward wobble is really bad for Josh. Getting walloped by the worst eyewall and won’t be able to capture the lowest pressure of the storm. Hopefully he makes it through okay.

[CrazyC83]

Cloud tops warming now on the eastern portion of Melissa.

Land interaction likely playing a role there.

[GCANE]

Internet connectivity now dropping rapidly across the island.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Josh Morgerman is at these coordinates:
18.04376 -77.91039

It matches the video here:
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1546850113124310

Someone in another forum found it.