ATL: ERIN - Models

[mcheer23]

12z Euro more west?

https://i.imgur.com/niDSqEG.gif

Yes, parts of the outer banks actually would see hurricane force gusts if the EURO were to verify.

[LarryWx]

Yes, Luis, it doesn’t recurve til 75W and thus comes within 200 miles of NC!

[cycloneye]

Wow, what a close call.

[Cachondo23]

12z Euro more west?

https://i.imgur.com/niDSqEG.gif

Could be squally weather and big waves for NE Caribbean.

[DunedinDave]

Starting to give me Dorian vibes looking at the latest Euro and ICON. That turn still almost certain to happen but the big question of when seems to a lot closer to the US coast than yesterday putting SC/NC on alert.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Starting to give me Dorian vibes looking at the latest Euro and ICON. That turn still almost certain to happen but the big question of when seems to a lot closer to the US coast than yesterday putting SC/NC on alert.

In the low chance of Erin striking the US, it'll probably be a storm that runs up the East coast like Gloria, Floyd, or Irene.

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro close enough to cause issues on the outer banks

[cycloneye]

18z.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro with a low-key shocker

[cycloneye]

12z Euro with a low-key shocker

What do you mean by low key shocker?

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro with a low-key shocker

What do you mean by low key shocker?

Trend in the past 24-36 hours was a track well east of the ECONUS. That Euro run was a big shift west.

[kevin]

12z, August 13, hurricane model blend, Erin

--- Model peak intensity ---
HWRF = 944mb/117kt
HMON = 952mb/115kt
HAFS-A = 932mb/126kt
HAFS-B = 928mb/127kt

--- Hurricane model blend ---

The 12z hurricane models bring back the peak season craziness that we've come to expect from Erin. The models are still in disagreement about the mid-range (+36hr to +72 hr) with HWRF and HAFS-A showing RI into a MH while HMON and HAFS-B show slower steady intensification. HMON is by far the weakest for most of the run, even though even that model now manages to reach cat 4 intensity. This also puts the blend at a cat 4 near the end of the run. 06z was significantly weaker so I also don't want to suddenly give 100% faith to the 12z model cycle. It's still a process of waiting for the next cycle to see if the models come to a stable agreement. The track blend is similar to the 06z one, a little to the west. This puts the blend significantly to the west of the GFS operational run and slightly to the east of ICON and the Euro (albeit much closer to those models than GFS). It's still too early to say whether this means the hurricane models are more in-line with the close approach that the ICON and Euro runs make with the US later in those runs.

Blend
PEAK: 940 mb @ 126 hrs | 116 kt @ 120 hrs
ACE (0 - 126 hrs) = 17.0
Time (hr) / Pressure (mb) / Wind (kt) / Location (lat, lon [deg])
00 / 1003 / 42 / 16.4N, 42.8W
06 / 1001 / 41
12 / 1001 / 46
18 / 998 / 46 / 16.0N, 47.3W
24 / 996 / 46
30 / 992 / 52
36 / 989 / 60 / 16.9N, 51.1W
42 / 978 / 80 - C1
48 / 974 / 83
54 / 970 / 88 / 18.2N, 55.5W - C2
60 / 966 / 94
66 / 963 / 92
72 / 959 / 97 / 19.6N, 59.7W - C3
78 / 957 / 107
84 / 956 / 105
90 / 952 / 104 / 20.9N, 63.3W
96 / 951 / 106
102 / 945 / 112
108 / 942 / 114 / 22.4N, 66.3W - C4
114 / 941 / 109
120 / 942 / 116
126 / 940 / 110 / 24.0N, 68.0W

--- Previous blend analyses ---

06z, August 13 = 950mb, 108kt
00z, August 13 = 942mb, 111kt

[blp]

12z Euro with a low-key shocker

What do you mean by low key shocker?

Trend in the past 24-36 hours was a track well east of the ECONUS. That Euro run was a big shift west.

Indeed, interesting to see what the ensembles show.

[kevin]

12z Euro ensemble with a shift west. Only 2 members make landfall in the US, but it was 0 members in the previous run and the envelope has shifted to the left. Pretty much all members are now west of Bermuda with 0 landfalling members on the island this time.

[weeniepatrol]

Thanks euro.. very cool

[ronjon]

While the Euro ensembles shifted west the 12z operational run suggests it's on the left side of ensemble guidance. It may shift back east on the next operational run.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Thanks euro.. very cool


https://imgur.com/HfB7dB0

Bermuda saying this unironically though.

[OuterBanker]

Full pardon for the seus today from all models.
Best scenario would be the Euro AI. 70 w would place it between Hatteras (75w) and Bermuda (65w).
70w I also a common escape route.
Only caveat is Erins size. If it is large it could cause damaging erosion on the east coast with potential flooding as well on the OBX.
GFS and CMC nail Bermuda which no one wants.
I forgot to post this earlier.
Just viewed 12z Euro.
Oops.
Amazing how things change between each model hour.

[OuterBanker]

One other thing.
If anyone has a Caribbean cruise slated for this weekend, I suggest that you cancel.

[Kingarabian]

18z ICON coming in more SW compared to the past 4 runs through hour 84. Sitting just north of PR.