ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[zzzh]

Hot towers rotating upshear

[MarioProtVI]

Getting a lot of Earl 2010 vibes from Erin both in behavior and track…being disorganized somewhat constantly and somewhat sheared until it finally began RI as it got very close to the Leewards. It’s annoying and I’m not sure if it’s still 60 kt like before considering the degraded recon but the similarities are awfully similar. Hopefully the bigger fore it seems to be going for doesn’t cap it too low, but I don’t know anymore because Erin’s being throwing curveballs its entire life.

[Nimbus]

Erin isn't a morning girl, she wakes up a mess.
Steadily gaining latitude with no RI is good news for the Leewards.

They were destined to be on the weak side of the storm anyways but tropical storm force winds and heavy rain squalls from the southwest quadrant could still cause problems if she continues weak and a little more west than thought.

[GCANE]

Looks like a PV streamer is taking a bite out of Erin.
About 20nm south of forecast track.
Heads up PR and VI.
East coast needs to keep an eye out.

[Woofde]

Despite the rather high surface pressure, recon is indicating a more organized system with a steeper pressure gradient. Satellite shows a similar trend. I have a feeling Erin is about to take off.

[cheezyWXguy]

Despite the rather high surface pressure, recon is indicating a more organized system with a steeper pressure gradient. Satellite shows a similar trend. I have a feeling Erin is about to take off.

I agree. Erin has dropped the ccc look and looks to be starting to develop rotating towers around a proto-eyewall. Much more conducive structure for strengthening then it had yesterday

[GCANE]

Last couple ticks shows Vmax dropping and MSLP increasing.
Not a sign of a strengthening system.

[GCANE]

PV Steamer looks to be hitting Erin in the gut.

[GCANE]

Kermit reports a closed oval eye 19x27 nm wide.
17.84N 54.77W
2C Delta a 10K-ft

[cycloneye]

Looks like we will have hurricane Erin at 11 AM based of the recon data so far.

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 75kt at 12:07z
Peak SFMR: 65kt at 12:07z

[StormWeather]

So mission #3 measured 72 kts at the highest
Mission # 4 measured 75 kts so far for the highest

I got an average of 73.5 kts. I rounded that down to 70 kts.

Would I be correct to assume that these recent measurements support 65 kts for an intensity?

[StormWeather]

New forecast calls for 115 kts (A category 4)

Ha ha ha, naturally that had to update before I could hit the send button minutes ago

I’m not sure what you mean?

[GCANE]

AF308 reports a significant contraction in the eye.
Borderline pinhole.

At 12:02Z
18.03N 55.26W
998mb
Elliptical eye 10x4 nm
1C Delta at 10k-ft

[weeniepatrol]

F. CLOSED

G. E09/10/4

Elliptical; oriented east to west, 10 n mi across the major axis and 4 n mi across the minor axis.

If this circularizes, then it's a definitional pinhole eye.

[StormWeather]

AF308 reports a significant contraction in the eye.
Borderline pinhole.

At 12:02Z
18.03N 55.26W
998mb
Elliptical eye 10x4 nm
1C Delta at 10k-ft

Oh here we go. Borderline pinhole in the MDR.

[kevin]

Wow, very strong winds found during the latest passes by NOAA2 and AF308.

NOAA2
Minimum extrapolated pressure = 996.8 mb (with 9kt winds nearby)
Peak FL wind speed = 72 kt
Peak SFMR = -

AF308
Minimum extrapolated pressure = 998.5 mb (with 10kt winds nearby)
Peak FL wind speed = 75 kt
Peak SFMR = 78 kt

Using a 0.9 factor for FL to surface winds I'd currently put Erin at 997mb/65kt.

[GCANE]

Dramatic improvement in organization in the last couple of hours.
Rotating hot-towers around the CoC did the trick.

[kevin]

Classic shrimp forming. Not sure any of the models (even the hurricane models) showed something like this so soon. Let's see if it lasts.

[StormWeather]

Classic shrimp forming. Not sure any of the models (even the hurricane models) showed something like this so soon. Let's see if it lasts.

https://i.imgur.com/CKETUpe.gif

If this continues, I think ICON calling for a Category 4-5 won’t be so outlandish after all.

[cycloneye]

First hurricane of 2025 season

AL, 05, 2025081512, , BEST, 0, 180N, 553W, 65, 998, HU