ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#381 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 15, 2025 8:07 am

kevin wrote:Classic shrimp forming. Not sure any of the models (even the hurricane models) showed something like this so soon. Let's see if it lasts.

https://i.imgur.com/CKETUpe.gif


I also see a feeder band forming. Wasn't expecting this for another day.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#382 Postby WeatherBoy2000 » Fri Aug 15, 2025 8:10 am

GCANE wrote:
kevin wrote:Classic shrimp forming. Not sure any of the models (even the hurricane models) showed something like this so soon. Let's see if it lasts.

https://i.imgur.com/CKETUpe.gif


I also see a feeder band forming. Wasn't expecting this for another day.


Looks like Erin has finally got its act together after days of struggling.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion: Best Track / Recon up to hurricane

#383 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 15, 2025 8:13 am

Good chance we'll see an eye before sunset today.

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion: Best Track / Recon up to hurricane

#384 Postby Hurricane2022 » Fri Aug 15, 2025 8:21 am

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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion: Best Track / Recon up to hurricane

#385 Postby Teban54 » Fri Aug 15, 2025 8:41 am

Image
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion: Best Track / Recon up to hurricane

#386 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 15, 2025 8:42 am

AF308

Extrap Surface Pressure = 995.7mb
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion: Best Track / Recon up to hurricane

#387 Postby aspen » Fri Aug 15, 2025 8:43 am

There still seems to be some dry air or maybe a tiny bit of shear near the NW section of Erin’s CDO. The latest recon fix shows the LLC is on the western side of the CDO and not nicely tucked in underneath, and the wind/pressure curves on the recon plots still aren’t perfectly lined up. So it’s still probably got a bit to go before it’s ready for RI. Maybe by tonight if it can mix out the last of the dry air and SAL.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion: Best Track / Recon up to hurricane

#388 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Aug 15, 2025 8:55 am

That's a really high pressure for a hurricane, but I guess it's relatively about right. Gradient driven winds are going to get insane when it gets into major category if that gradient continues. Bigger than usual surf machine probably.

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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion: Best Track / Recon up to hurricane

#389 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 15, 2025 9:01 am

AF308 Vortex Message

13:31Z
18.16N 55.74W
996mb extrap
Eye open NW, circular 40nm dia.
2C delta at 10K'
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#390 Postby Sciencerocks » Fri Aug 15, 2025 9:04 am

Image

The classic 9 is starting to form with outflow being pulled equatorward on the southwestern quad. I remember this with Ivan and Felix. This thing will probably be a whole different animal this time tomorrow morning. I see cat4 in its future.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#391 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 15, 2025 9:07 am

Looking at water vapor, it appears that poleward and equatorward outflow channels maybe developing.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion: Best Track / Recon up to hurricane

#392 Postby Teban54 » Fri Aug 15, 2025 9:14 am

GCANE wrote:AF308 Vortex Message

13:31Z
18.16N 55.74W
996mb extrap
Eye open NW, circular 40nm dia.
2C delta at 10K'

So much for the pinhole eye lol
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#393 Postby sasha_B » Fri Aug 15, 2025 9:14 am

Quite an improvement since 06z this morning. The eyewall is partially open as the VDM notes but it's apparent on LWIR imagery and new towers continue to pop up. Further intensification seems very likely as the day goes on.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#394 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 15, 2025 9:36 am

CIMSS now tags Erin as a Cat1
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#395 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 15, 2025 9:44 am

Starting to see a warm spot on IR in the cold cloud tops.
Hot tower just to the east of it.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#396 Postby fllawyer » Fri Aug 15, 2025 9:48 am

...ERIN BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2025 SEASON... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#397 Postby sasha_B » Fri Aug 15, 2025 9:51 am

Forecast peak is now 120 kts at +72h with the discussion noting that:
the the Florida State SuperEnsemble and the US Navy COAMPS-TC
models forecast higher peak intensities than the official forecast,
so it would not be too surprising if Erin became stronger than
currently forecast.

RI25 is also explicitly forecast for the first 24h forecast period.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#398 Postby hiflyer » Fri Aug 15, 2025 9:56 am

That sunrise developing shrimp shape telegraphed Erin was growing faster than expected. Hopefully that brings a more NW track than the past 36 hours.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#399 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 15, 2025 9:58 am

Interesting.
WV imagery showing a small mid/upper-level low at 30N 42W which is driving the poleward outflow channel.
Not seeing this on GFS other than a small 355K PV maximum.
Could be a significant glitch in the models.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#400 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 15, 2025 10:01 am

msbee, Patti and other members in the northern Leewards. You will be fine as the core will move to your north but some squally bands will move thru St Marteen this weekend.

Image
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