NATL: MELISSA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[WaveBreaking]

98L's been tapping into that high-TPW air from the Amazon all day today

[Ubuntwo]

Outrageous convection in the last few hours. Really blowing up this evening.

Quick development like that one forecasted by GFS? It would be an apocalypse for everyone between Haiti and PR.

Agreed. If this development keeps up, a quicker northward tug seems more likely. Anyone in the GA should be on high alert.

[chaser1]

You have to admit, 98L is some good looking tropical goodness! The anticyclone it's building aloft is no small feature either.

While its way too early to tell, right now I'd bet my $11 of beer money on a Cat 4 landfall between Santiago de Cuba and Guantanamo. Regardless, this has the makings to be this season's most perilous impact event.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025


Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms have become slightly better organized
since yesterday in association with a tropical wave located just
west of the Windward Islands over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
However, surface observations indicate the disturbance still lacks a
closed circulation. The system is moving quickly westward at 20 to
25 mph, which will likely limit its development over the next day or
so. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
favorable for development as the wave slows down over the central
Caribbean Sea, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the middle to latter portion of this week. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to
continue for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands through
Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[zzzh]

I see the westerlies

[cycloneye]

Comming from Andy, this is big.

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1980016670824673334

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 98, 2025102000, , BEST, 0, 127N, 629W, 30, 1009, DB

A tad slower.

INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

We have west winds in latest ASCAT.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025


Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few
hundred miles west of the Windward Islands, is producing a large
area of poorly organized showers and thunderstorms. Recent
satellite-derived wind data indicate that the disturbance continues
to lack a closed circulation, although it is producing winds of 30
to 40 mph to the north and east of the wave axis. The system is
moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph, which should limit
significant development during the next day or so. Thereafter,
environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development as the wave slows down over the central Caribbean Sea,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to
latter part of this week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
and gusty winds are expected to continue affecting portions of the
Windward and Leeward Islands this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Looking really close this morning. This is going to be an interesting one to watch for sure.

[TomballEd]

Looking really close this morning. This is going to be an interesting one to watch for sure.

Yup.

[Zonacane]

Developing center is tucked in nicely under the convective canopy

[tropicwatch]

Thinking the NHC might go with a PTC late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

[GCANE]

A lot of shear-induced convection.
Models can't make up their mind which way this will go.
Will it spin up from some hot towers and develop quickly due to high Oceanic Heat Content and move north as GFS forecasts.
OR, will it stay weak due to shear and move into the West Caribbean and develop later as Euro calls it?
A tough call.
Stay tuned.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025


Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms primarily east of
the wave axis. The system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph towards
the central Caribbean Sea and is expected to slowdown over the next
few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is
likely to form over the next few days. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are subsiding for the Windward and
Leeward Islands this morning, but could begin over portions of the
ABC Islands during the next couple of days. For more information on
this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

[Woofde]

A lot of shear-induced convection.
Models can't make up their mind which way this will go.
Will it spin up from some hot towers and develop quickly due to high Oceanic Heat Content and move north as GFS forecasts.
OR, will it stay weak due to shear and move into the West Caribbean and develop later as Euro calls it?
A tough call.
Stay tuned.

Yeah the shear is definitely driving things right now. We've seen many waves that temporarily collapse after shearing stops.
My bet is on the Euro/ICON/CMC solution with later development in the Central/Western Caribbean. Too much shear in it's
immediate future for a 3 day development like the GFS shows.

[cycloneye]

Is only my opinion but I think the percent for 2 days should be higher than 50% and up to 70% based on satelite trends.

[GCANE]

Tapping into some very high Amazon moist air

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

[Cachondo23]

Thinking the NHC might go with a PTC late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

PTC to Jamaica and/or La Hispaniola? A bit early for that?