NATL: MELISSA - Models

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sasha_B
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#41 Postby sasha_B » Sun Oct 19, 2025 10:12 am

zzzh wrote:https://i.imgur.com/NajP9Cy.png
One FVN3 member has 182kt/878mb :lol:


Always neat to see 'crazy model runs' like this, even if it's only a single ensemble member this time (...worth noting the number of non-record-breaking Cat 5 members on that run, though). Infinitessimally unlikely for such a thing to happen, but probably not thermodynamically impossible: 878 / 182 exceeds Wilma and Allen's records for the Atlantic (the latter by a wide margin) but would fall within the observed bounds of October western-hemisphere TC intensity.

On the other hand, most of the guidance for now shows 98L becoming a TC of low-to-moderate intensity (if it develops at all, which isn't a given). I think the more realistic concern should it approach land would be rainfall & slow forward motion, like we saw with Sara last year. ERI requires everything to go right/wrong.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#42 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Oct 19, 2025 10:55 am

12z ICON with a 954mb hurricane SW of Jamaica and moving slowly west at hour 180.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#43 Postby kevin » Sun Oct 19, 2025 10:57 am

We're still in the very early stage of this invest, but if the c5 runs of 98L become reality this would be the only season besides 2005 on record to feature 3 or more cat 5 hurricanes (2005 had 4).

Even if it'd 'just' become a MH, the season would be at 13/5/4 which is still quite a unique season total. Many of the similar seasons like 1894 (7/5/4) 1909 (12/6/4) & 1964 (13/7/5) are from before the satellite era when these high MH/TS and MH/H ratios were more common due to missed storms. The only kinda similar 'recent' season is 1988 with 12/5/3.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#44 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 19, 2025 11:08 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:12z ICON with a 954mb hurricane SW of Jamaica and moving slowly west at hour 180.


Indeed!

Image
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#45 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 19, 2025 11:11 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:12z ICON with a 954mb hurricane SW of Jamaica and moving slowly west at hour 180.


Andys model again 06z run has another C5 heading into the NW carib. :eek:

https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/anima ... casthr=000

Image
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#46 Postby Blown Away » Sun Oct 19, 2025 11:47 am

Image

Yikes for DR/PR if the GFS is right! :double:
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#47 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 19, 2025 11:51 am

Don't put too much stock on the GFS.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1979948650596880611

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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#48 Postby Pelicane » Sun Oct 19, 2025 12:21 pm

NDG wrote:Don't put too much stock on the GFS.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1979948650596880611



GEFS trended notably westward FWIW
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#49 Postby IsabelaWeather » Sun Oct 19, 2025 12:31 pm

Pelicane wrote:
NDG wrote:Don't put too much stock on the GFS.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1979948650596880611



GEFS trended notably westward FWIW



I'm not sure, looks like more members are east at 12z than 6z
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#50 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun Oct 19, 2025 12:35 pm

IsabelaWeather wrote:
Pelicane wrote:
NDG wrote:Don't put too much stock on the GFS.

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1979948650596880611



GEFS trended notably westward FWIW



I'm not sure, looks like more members are east at 12z than 6z

Fewer members doing a quick curve through Hispaniola (the western group is larger), but that west group is not as far west. Fewer members drifting around. Looks like the mean clusters through eastern Cuba.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#51 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Sun Oct 19, 2025 12:51 pm

No development on the Euro. Minimal TS on the Canadian. Yes, some models show Cat 5 but even a hurricane is not a sure-thing.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#52 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun Oct 19, 2025 1:07 pm

MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS wrote:No development on the Euro. Minimal TS on the Canadian. Yes, some models show Cat 5 but even a hurricane is not a sure-thing.

12z Euro has a 983mb hurricane into eastern Cuba, passing through the Bahamas and peaking in the 960s.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#53 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 19, 2025 1:09 pm

12z EURO develops and tracks NE thru Cuba.

Image
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#54 Postby IsabelaWeather » Sun Oct 19, 2025 1:16 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z EURO develops and tracks NE thru Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/VYAu2R8.gif


Caving to the GFS?
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#55 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun Oct 19, 2025 1:49 pm

IsabelaWeather wrote:
cycloneye wrote:12z EURO develops and tracks NE thru Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/VYAu2R8.gif


Caving to the GFS?

GFS develops very quickly (in about three days) and turns almost immediately into Hispaniola. The Euro takes far longer to develop - about a whole week. This timing difference hasn't tightened up much unfortunately. The Euro is most similar to the western camp of the GEFS in that slower development and track a bit further west.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#56 Postby Ubuntwo » Sun Oct 19, 2025 1:50 pm

12z FNV3 is back to favoring the GFS solution:
Image
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#57 Postby Blown Away » Sun Oct 19, 2025 2:15 pm

IsabelaWeather wrote:
cycloneye wrote:12z EURO develops and tracks NE thru Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/VYAu2R8.gif


Caving to the GFS?


I don’t think so, just closing in on time and accuracy. GFS has slowly moved W away from PR towards EURO.
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#58 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 19, 2025 2:23 pm

Image

Image
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#59 Postby Blown Away » Sun Oct 19, 2025 2:26 pm

Image

12z GEFS… Wide W swing now with stronger members…
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Re: NATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#60 Postby IsabelaWeather » Sun Oct 19, 2025 3:55 pm

Blown Away wrote:
IsabelaWeather wrote:
cycloneye wrote:12z EURO develops and tracks NE thru Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/VYAu2R8.gif


Caving to the GFS?


I don’t think so, just closing in on time and accuracy. GFS has slowly moved W away from PR towards EURO.


I wouldnt say that, I didnt mean a track to PR, the gfs hasnt shown that in like 4 or 5 runs, i mean a track into Hispaniola and the NE movement. Focusing on the NE movement as opposed to N over W cuba
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