ATL: ERIN - Models

[Hurricaneman]

interesting trends with some of the models today / tonight. It will also interesteing to see how much this affects wave action along the east coast if it gets a bit closer.

With the model trends I can’t even dismiss a North Carolina Landfall

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1955837848869081554

[zzzh]

 https://x.com/HurricaneAddict/status/1955836735046246605

[Hurricaneman]

Also if that ridge builds back in faster than modeled areas south and west of North Carolina may have to keep tabs on this as this is so close to getting trapped by the rebuilding ridge, the only real hope is if the trough is a little slower in leaving

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS is showing a recurve about .8 degree west of 18z so the trend is not our friend

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Also if that ridge builds back in faster than modeled areas south and west of North Carolina may have to keep tabs on this as this is so close to getting trapped by the rebuilding ridge, the only real hope is if the trough is a little slower in leaving

I would not be surprised if this were to happen. The current cold front that is coming through the Northeast was supposed to arrive early today, until 48 hours ago now it will push through early on Thursday, fully off the coast instead. If something similar happens with the ridge in the longer range, a mistiming in the wrong direction, it would potentially be catastrophic. So, timing is everything here.

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro: 200 miles E of 12Z/recurves near 72.5W vs 75W of 12Z and yesterday’s 0Z recurving near 70W.

[jlauderdal]

The 0zGFS is showing a recurve about .8 degree west of 18z so the trend is not our friend

You can relax, the break in the ridge isn't going anywhere.

[Cachondo23]

06z GFS a bit closer to NE Leeward Islands while ICON now further east, confusing situation.

[BobHarlem]

Interesting left shift on the 6z GFS ensembles this morning (One interesting change is that there is nothing over or east of Bermuda out to 162 hours), recon is sorely needed.

Last 3 runs trend

[GCANE]

Run to run ICON has slowed this down a bit but intensified it by 17mb

[GCANE]

EAGLE has the farthest west distribution

[kevin]

06z GEFS shifts west and it looks like at least three members will make landfall in the US. All members are now west of Bermuda.

[OuterBanker]

[quote="BobHarlem"]Interesting left shift on the 6z GFS ensembles this morning (One interesting change is that there is nothing over or east of Bermuda out to 162 hours), recon is sorely needed.

Last 3 runs trend
https://i.imgur.com/hadCU8F.gif[/quotI understand that the G4 is scheduled from Barbados today.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/CraigSetzer/status/1955960051711070519

[cycloneye]

12z SHIP run. Still moving west at 270 degress.

[Teban54]

Interestingly, 6z GEFS is now further west than 0z Euro ensembles, even though their operational runs had been the other way round.

[mitchell]

interesting trends with some of the models today / tonight. It will also interesteing to see how much this affects wave action along the east coast if it gets a bit closer.

With the model trends I can’t even dismiss a North Carolina Landfall

Wave heights and periods based on the 06z GFS model showing 12 foot waves at 16 second periods (significant wave height) Outerbanks. That would easily translate into 10-15 foot breaking waves. Obviously some of the tracks and models yesterday evening were showing bigger wave heights than this.

[Kingarabian]

12z ICON rolling.

[Kingarabian]

12z ICON similar to the most recent 00z run. Further south through hour 48.