ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[CrazyC83]

That most recent Recon pass supports 80 kt. I'd want to see a bit higher before going up more though, as 92 kt FL = 83 kt at the surface but the SFMR is lower (even if that should get less weight due to reliability questions).

[JabNOLA]

Agree.coming together nicely. Nothing like lower sheer and warmer SSTs. For now the heading looking closer to 265 than 280. That weakness will be there just don’t want to see too much of a slowdown.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1956549110019854346



....I mean, if this trend continues, we may see a 130-140 kt MH in about 24 hours.

[Hurricane2022]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 50SE 30SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....210NE 120SE 75SW 180NW.

[CrazyC83]

It looks like it's all systems to go now.

An earlier peak looks possible now, as shear looks to increase next week. Given the eyewall dynamics, that could mean a sprawling, lumbering storm with a poor inner core. Maybe something like a category 2 with a pressure of 940 mb.

[Hurricane2022]

[msbee]

FYI, it’s incredibly quiet and still in St Maarten right now.

[Category5Kaiju]

By just eyeballing this storm, I'm fairly certain that we'll be looking at a major hurricane by tomorrow.

[emeraldislenc]

It is looking good for the east coast of US. think we can all be feeling much better. Let's hope it misses Bermuda too. Feeling very thankful!

[BobHarlem]

Although I don't want to get into wobble watching mode this soon, I still wonder how much longer the due west motion is going to continue here.

[AxaltaRacing24]

By just eyeballing this storm, I'm fairly certain that we'll be looking at a major hurricane by tomorrow.

I think we might already be very close to that right now to be honest.

[cheezyWXguy]

Back after a few hours out, man what a change from this afternoon. Erin is wasting no time.

[NDG]

Weird how the NHC upgraded it to Cat 2 without recon flights finding any Cat 2 winds.
88 knots at flight level and 80 knots at surface.

[cheezyWXguy]

Cloud tops in the eye look to be up into the -20s now, shouldn’t be long before they’re positive at this rate. I wonder if we’ll have a major by the 5am advisory, seems like it’ll be close.

[zzzh]

Weird how the NHC upgraded it to Cat 2 without recon flights finding any Cat 2 winds.
88 knots at flight level and 80 knots at surface.

They found FL92 earlier

[weeniepatrol]

The symmetrization of the wind field today is beautiful.



The upper-level anticyclone is mesmerizing. Will become a textbook major hurricane soon

[CrazyC83]

Pressure down to 971 mb. It's really taking off now.

000
URNT12 KNHC 160511
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052025
A. 16/04:51:30Z
B. 19.50 deg N 060.15 deg W
C. 700 mb 2882 m
D. 972 mb
E. 110 deg 11 kt
F. CLOSED
G. E36/13/9
H. 74 kt
I. 144 deg 12 nm 04:47:30Z
J. 227 deg 74 kt
K. 144 deg 5 nm 04:49:30Z
L. 81 kt
M. 309 deg 12 nm 04:54:30Z
N. 047 deg 88 kt
O. 308 deg 10 nm 04:54:00Z
P. 10 C / 3041 m
Q. 13 C / 3049 m
R. 8 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF308 0705A ERIN OB 29
MAX FL WIND 88 KT 308 / 10 NM 04:54:00Z
;

[canebeard]

FYI, it’s incredibly quiet and still in St Maarten right now.

When 150 mph Hurricane Michael's eye was 30 mies S.of Panama City, FL, in 2018, the wind in PC was 15-20 mph. And yes, that seemed eerily and incredibly quiet. In many typhoons, almost all the wind is concentrated in the wall cloud and inner central core; I have been told by the expert, JL.

Note: in Erin's 11 pm forecast advisory, the extent of 34 kt winds was ony 30 miles in the SW quadrant
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 50SE 30SW 100NW.

[Beef Stew]

I suspect Erin is probably right on the cusp of being a major hurricane now