ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[mrbagyo]

[kevin]

Holy moly, 934.8 mb found by AF308 and 156 kt SFMR

(only 117 kt FL wind so far, AF308 is still at the center, I think we're going towards C5 territory)

[HurricaneAndre2008]

934.8 mb
(~ 27.61 inHg)

[GCANE]

Rain rate measurements from AF308 will tell a lot.

[weeniepatrol]

[REDHurricane]

[GCANE]

Barely moving north now. Practically due west.

[kevin]

Here's the WSW motion visualized with the NOAA2 center fixes.

[jlauderdal]

Barely moving north now. Practically due west.

The intensity clearly affecting at least the short term motion

Sent from my Pixel 9 using Tapatalk

[GCANE]

Not what you want to see.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... A-ERIN.png

[REDHurricane]

By my count that's a 46mb drop in less than 12 hours (35mb drop in less than 6!!), and it'll be even more at the next recon pass too

[GCANE]

Drop splashed at 11:43Z 19.5N 62.0W 936mb

[kevin]

AF308 plane pass.

Minimum extrapolated pressure = 934.8 mb with 17 kt wind nearby -> 933 mb
Peak FL wind = 138 kt -> 124 kt estimate at the surface
Peak SFMR = 156 kt

The dropsonde measured 936 mb with 14 kt wind, which would result in 934/935 mb. I'd say a solid estimate for now is at least 935mb/125kt, but I'd personally put it at 130kt based on the SFMR and ERI behavior of the storm in general.

[kevin]

509
WTNT35 KNHC 161152
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...CATEGORY 4 ERIN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
...OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 62.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM NE OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES

[GCANE]

A good 30nm south of forecast track now.
Model runs later today will be interesting.

[kevin]

20 mb pressure drop and 20 kt wind increase in the last 3 hours

[GCANE]

Last drop showed eye definitely drying out with 14knt wind at surface.
Definite sign an EWRC is starting to develop.

[GCANE]

I wonder if this will be some funky two wall system that maintains itself for a long period.

[TampaWxLurker]

What in the world did I wake up to?!

[Cachondo23]

NE Caribbean Islands got lucky with the worst part of Monster Erin. Locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and big waves can still be an impact in that area though.