ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1956689751945183573


 https://x.com/ryanhallyall/status/1956689555597172934

[Teban54]

Is EWRC the only thing that can stop Erin from hitting Cat 5 today?

[WaveBreaking]

Is EWRC the only thing that can stop Erin from hitting Cat 5 today?

Either that or surprise mid-level shear a la Lee

[NDG]

Erin has been moving almost due west in the past 12 hours.

 https://x.com/ndgmetchef/status/1956700104745746454

[WeatherBoy2000]

Best track has this now at 130kts. This marks the 11th year in a row of a season producing a hurricane of at least that intensity.

[mrbagyo]

The eye is perfectly clear

[BobHarlem]

San Juan radar loop as the first signs of erin's eye enter the extreme radar range:

[NDG]

 https://x.com/ndgmetchef/status/1956703846987637050

[GCANE]

Looks like lightning getting worse in the eyewall.
Recon about to make a run into the NE Quad.

[aspen]

AF308 should make another pass through Erin in the next half hour. I would not be surprised if it finds a Cat 5. The pressure has probably dropped into the upper 920s by now.

[Kazmit]

A beast awakens

[abajan]

A very noticable jog to the west.

https://i.imgur.com/rDVIoNA.gif

I thought she was moving WNW. That looks like a steady due West movement. Not even wobbling or stair stepping. I'm assuming the WNW movement should resume but that's a bit concerning the farther west and south this stays the more likely there may be slight impacts from the outside edges of Erin in the Outer Banks

Perhaps the western jog is due to its strong outflow pumping the ridge to its east. I expect Erin to resume its WNW track in earnest at some point today, though.

[weeniepatrol]

[WaveBreaking]

Sunrise

[GCANE]

A very noticable jog to the west.

https://i.imgur.com/rDVIoNA.gif

I thought she was moving WNW. That looks like a steady due West movement. Not even wobbling or stair stepping. I'm assuming the WNW movement should resume but that's a bit concerning the farther west and south this stays the more likely there may be slight impacts from the outside edges of Erin in the Outer Banks

Perhaps western jog is due to its strong outflow pumping the ridge to its east. I expect Erin to resume its WNW track in earnest at some point today, though.

Steering currents about 12hrs ago showed the forcing to be due west influenced by a ridge over FL.
If this is true, then Erin maybe be moving more into the Bahamas than currently forecast.

[abajan]

Best track has this now at 130kts. This marks the 11th year in a row of a season producing a hurricane of at least that intensity.

Yep:

AL, 05, 2025081612, , BEST, 0, 196N, 621W, 130, 934, HU

Earlier this morning, I considered the possibility of Erin hitting Cat5 by sometime this afternoon. Now, that intensity being reached in time for the next advisory later this morning seems within the realm of possibility. Heck, at this rate of intensification it even seems likely.

[Teban54]

Forecast yesterday afternoon (8/15 5pm ET): 90 kts at 18z, 5 hours from now

Now: 125 kts official advisory, 130 kts best track

[kevin]

AF308, 925.0 mb extrapolated with 28 kt nearby -> 922/923 mb.
145 kt FL and 160 SFMR. The FL wind would translate to 130 kt. Combined with the SFMR I'd say 135 kt, but I'm pretty such Erin is a cat 5 or very very close to one. It's just a matter of finding the pocket of peak FL winds somewhere in the core. Either way, if AF308 performs 1 or 2 more passes I'm confident those winds will be found.

[Hurricane2022]

925.0 extrap

[GCANE]

The two recon planes about to cross the eye at the same time.
A wing wave would be nice.