ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion
925.0mb extrapolated, peak FL of 145 kt, SFMR of 150 kt. Not sure if this is enough for a Cat 5 upgrade because the SFMR values have definitely been inflated this morning, but it’s at least 135 kt for sure.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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weeniepatrol
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion
weeniepatrol wrote:https://imgur.com/bqXXTrc
Wow thats a deviation
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Kingarabian
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion
She sure looks to be heading due west for the past few hours.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion
Another pass by NOAA2, FL winds support a cat 5!
Center location = 19.55N, 62.45W
Minimum extrapolated pressure = 922.7 mb with 18 kt wind nearby -> 921 mb
Peak FL wind = 156 kt -> 140 kt estimate at the surface
I'd say 921mb/140kt.
Center location = 19.55N, 62.45W
Minimum extrapolated pressure = 922.7 mb with 18 kt wind nearby -> 921 mb
Peak FL wind = 156 kt -> 140 kt estimate at the surface
I'd say 921mb/140kt.
Last edited by kevin on Sat Aug 16, 2025 8:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Hurricane2022
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion
132830 1937N 06225W 7424 02051 9409 +166 +166 110128 156 /// /// 05
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion
Combined with the 926mb (+12kt) dropsonde this seems like a lock for 925mb/140kt next advisory.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion
Hurricane2022 wrote:132830 1937N 06225W 7424 02051 9409 +166 +166 110128 156 /// /// 05
There it is. That should be enough for a Cat 5 upgrade at 11. Wonder if we may get another pass by then.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion
Because theres been a west deviation in track, steering analysis from a few days ago showed that a stronger Erin means that deviation can be expected. Whether this is being picked up by the models remains to be seen.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion
I'm sure she'll get back on track but for now there's not much north to her heading.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Hurricane2022
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion
And here I am, violently refreshing the NHC's page waiting for an Update Statement 
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
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WaveBreaking
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion
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Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion
Erin looks pretty big on satellite. The fact it's forecast to double or triple in size is insane.
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion
I bet somebody lost their lunch in Kermit.
A 2000 foot drop.
A 2000 foot drop.
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Hurricane2022
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion
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Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.
--------
Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion
Hurricane2022 wrote:And here I am, violently refreshing the NHC's page waiting for an Update Statement
I don't think we will get one until the 11am update. Mainly since it's not currently a direct threat to land.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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