NATL: MELISSA - Models

[Blown Away]

Caving to the GFS?

I don’t think so, just closing in on time and accuracy. GFS has slowly moved W away from PR towards EURO.

I wouldnt say that, I didnt mean a track to PR, the gfs hasnt shown that in like 4 or 5 runs, i mean a track into Hispaniola and the NE movement. Focusing on the NE movement as opposed to N over W cuba

Euro has been somewhat consistent with 98L moving W of Hisp and then shooting NE over Cuba. GFS yesterday was mostly over PR and lately has been trending W now over Hisp. That’s why I said EURO is not trending towards GFS.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z UKMET once again has just a rather weak low (not even a TC on the textual output; it has yet to show TCG in the Caribbean on this output though it awhile back had several runs with TCG east of the Lesser Antilles) and again into Nicaragua. The last 5 runs have shown a weak low either hitting Nicaragua (0Z 10/19, 12Z 10/18), barely E of Nic. but heading into it (0Z 10/18, 12Z 10/17), or still 200 miles E of Nic. but likely headed into it (0Z 10/17).

Looking at the H5 vorticity, it appears that as the AOI on the TWO comes into the E Car that a portion of it turns sharply right like the GFS but unlike that model it never develops. Then what looks like a split from this, possibly incorporating additional vorticity coming off northern S America, causes the weak low to move into the SW Caribbean, and then into Nicaragua.

So, the UKMET remains a SW outlier. I should add that yesterday’s 12Z JMA is similar and it has been similar all of the way back to the 12Z 10/15 run. So, the JMA has had 4 12Z runs in a row with just a weak low into Nicaragua or just offshore headed there.

Thus the UKMET and JMA have a good chance to both either fail badly or end up doing the best of the major operationals with this.

Followup:
-12Z UKMET is still another headed into Nicaragua with a weak low

-12Z JMA: after four 12z runs in a row of weak low into Nicaragua, today’s is slightly further N with a Mitch-like track that skims N coast of Honduras

[Travorum]

So far the 12z experimental HAFS-B is slower and stronger through 150hrs, it has it as at 922mb/150kt SE of Jamaica. 6z at the equivalent time was 5mb weaker and west of Jamaica.

[Nimbus]

18Z GFS has this crossing north over Hispaniola in about 120 hours. Euro still meanders the low in the Caribbean like Mitch only much weaker, eventually being pulled north over Cuba by a front but that is way beyond the models depth. The Islands still need to watch this one.

[Travorum]

Here's a full GIF of the 12z experimental HAFS-B run, it stalls out south of the Tiburon peninsula right in the warmest waters in the basin.



And here's the inner nest with the peak wind speed and lowest pressure, respectively.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

18z EPS spread has increased vs. 12z. Still a long ways to go with this one:

[Ubuntwo]

18z FNV3 almost all-in on a Hispaniola track, 18z GENC is just about as confident on the 'west' track through Cuba. 18z GEFS looks like a blend between these two ensembles.

[kevin]

06z GFS once again has fast development and a quick exit, landfall on the western Dominican Republic at +72/+78 hr at 980 mb. Meanwhile 06z ICON has slower development and a near-stall between +60 & +120 hr in the Caribbean. And the 00z Euro has a Wilma-like track in the WCar (edit: only in the WCar, it does not threaten Florida) followed by a C5 landfall on Cuba. Something will have to give soon.

06z GFS



06z ICON



00z Euro

[otowntiger]

Be careful saying it’s a ‘Wilma like track’- it’s not threatening Florida. I know you mean generally similar track/synoptics, but much further south and east hitting Cuba instead SW FL.

[kevin]

Be careful saying it’s a ‘Wilma like track’- it’s not threatening Florida. I know you mean generally similar track/synoptics, but much further south and east hitting Cuba instead SW FL.

Yes that's indeed what I meant, I added a small edit to my post to prevent confusion.

[DESTRUCTION5]

00z Euro takes 10 days to traverse the southern carribean before it goes up and out. Thats alot of time to for it to make a new endgame. GFS is much quicker up and out. 5 days and already north of the islands.

One things for sure. One of the 2 isn't going to be close to verifying as of 00z.

[Woofde]

This is one of the strongest ensemble signatures I've seen. It's hard to imagine this not developing.

[jconsor]

With 98L's increased organization in the past 12 hours, the hurricane models finally seem to be getting a better handle on its track and intensification.

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1980253973345923256

[jconsor]

​​​​​​​Notable left trend on FNV3 (Google DeepMind ensemble) from 12z run yesterday to today's 6z run - both in terms of the the members that show a sharp NE curve into Hispaniola being further west (Haiti vs. DR) and a lot more members turning west into the NW Caribbean

[LarryWx]

As I just posted in the 98L discussion thread, there’s the 3rd main model option, that of many UKMET runs in a row (including today’s 0Z) that never get it much more organized than it is now due to a splitting off of the main H5 vorticity, which turns sharply north in the E Car leaving behind just a weak surface low. That weak low then continues westward in the S Caribbean with the run then ending (168) with just a 1007 low near the Nicaragua coast that’s likely about to dissipate underneath a pretty solid ridge.

The JMA had been similar though the latest run (yesterday’s 12Z) developed it into a 1004-5 TD to possibly low end TS that skims the N coast of Honduras to S Belize at 192 (end).

Interestingly, the 0Z CMC was kind of similar to yesterday’s 12Z JMA though it survives Honduras and then turns NE as a TS over WC Cuba and then the NW Bahamas.

We’ll see whether or not this is one of those cases of the UKMET being genesis shy/too weak due to the splitting of energy. It (along with the JMA for the most part) has a good chance to either bust badly or score a coup.

[NDG]

 https://x.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1980277179885011061

[IsabelaWeather]

As I just posted in the 98L discussion thread, there’s the 3rd main model option, that of many UKMET runs in a row (including today’s 0Z) that never get it much more organized than it is now due to a splitting off of the main H5 vorticity, which turns sharply north in the E Car leaving behind just a weak surface low. That weak low then continues westward in the S Caribbean with the run then ending (168) with just a 1007 low near the Nicaragua coast that’s likely about to dissipate underneath a pretty solid ridge.

The JMA had been similar though the latest run (yesterday’s 12Z) developed it into a 1004-5 TD to possibly low end TS that skims the N coast of Honduras to S Belize at 192 (end).

Interestingly, the 0Z CMC was kind of similar to yesterday’s 12Z JMA though it survives Honduras and then turns NE as a TS over WC Cuba and then the NW Bahamas.

We’ll see whether or not this is one of those cases of the UKMET being genesis shy/too weak due to the splitting of energy. It (along with the JMA for the most part) has a good chance to either bust badly or score a coup.

IIRC the UKMET has been complete trash this year, never really developed anything.

[TomballEd]

As I just posted in the 98L discussion thread, there’s the 3rd main model option, that of many UKMET runs in a row (including today’s 0Z) that never get it much more organized than it is now due to a splitting off of the main H5 vorticity, which turns sharply north in the E Car leaving behind just a weak surface low. That weak low then continues westward in the S Caribbean with the run then ending (168) with just a 1007 low near the Nicaragua coast that’s likely about to dissipate underneath a pretty solid ridge.

The JMA had been similar though the latest run (yesterday’s 12Z) developed it into a 1004-5 TD to possibly low end TS that skims the N coast of Honduras to S Belize at 192 (end).

Interestingly, the 0Z CMC was kind of similar to yesterday’s 12Z JMA though it survives Honduras and then turns NE as a TS over WC Cuba and then the NW Bahamas.

We’ll see whether or not this is one of those cases of the UKMET being genesis shy/too weak due to the splitting of energy. It (along with the JMA for the most part) has a good chance to either bust badly or score a coup.

IIRC the UKMET has been complete trash this year, never really developed anything.

For some reason, UK Met misses badly on intensity but is useful for track guidance.

[LarryWx]

As I just posted in the 98L discussion thread, there’s the 3rd main model option, that of many UKMET runs in a row (including today’s 0Z) that never get it much more organized than it is now due to a splitting off of the main H5 vorticity, which turns sharply north in the E Car leaving behind just a weak surface low. That weak low then continues westward in the S Caribbean with the run then ending (168) with just a 1007 low near the Nicaragua coast that’s likely about to dissipate underneath a pretty solid ridge.

The JMA had been similar though the latest run (yesterday’s 12Z) developed it into a 1004-5 TD to possibly low end TS that skims the N coast of Honduras to S Belize at 192 (end).

Interestingly, the 0Z CMC was kind of similar to yesterday’s 12Z JMA though it survives Honduras and then turns NE as a TS over WC Cuba and then the NW Bahamas.

We’ll see whether or not this is one of those cases of the UKMET being genesis shy/too weak due to the splitting of energy. It (along with the JMA for the most part) has a good chance to either bust badly or score a coup.

IIRC the UKMET has been complete trash this year, never really developed anything.

Calling the UKMET “complete trash” is plain wrong. It’s often genesis shy or at least too weak early on as I’ve said repeatedly. But as Ed accurately just posted, it’s often been good to great on track once it has something. For example, it was THE best on track for Imelda per this post of mine though it was a little later than other models on first having a run with TCG:

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 0#p3140817

From that post:
Whereas the UK’s record on the tracks was the best of all models (even better than the Icon) it was the latest on first having it as an actual TC (12Z 9/23) and also it didn’t have it on the 0Z 9/24. So, it was too genesis shy very early on, which is not uncommon with it. That’s why I pay extra attention when the UKMET first has a TC.

The UKMET was also THE best/absolutely stellar with Ian!

The UKMET has actually been showing a closed surface low on every run for 98L, but it has yet to have a TCG in the Caribbean per the textual output. The H5 vorticity splits from it in the E Car leaving behind the weak sfc low to continue W. We’ll see whether later runs actually show a TC. And if they do, will they still remain in the S Car?

[caneseddy]

12z Icon ends next Tuesday with an intensifying Hurricane south of Jamaica heading WNW; doesn’t really get going until it passes Hispaniola

12z GFS still sticking to the NE path through Hispaniola with a MH landfall on Thursday