ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Is Erin in range of any of the island radars?

[tropicwatch]

Is Erin in range of any of the island radars?

Puerto Rico

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The only analog at this point is Irma and Maria… so glad it’s going away from land.

[BobHarlem]

Is Erin in range of any of the island radars?

[cycloneye]

Is Erin in range of any of the island radars?

The San Juan NWS radar.

[GCANE]

Given Erin's strength I would bet the anti-cyclone itself is the main-factor steering Erin.
If that is the case, the longer before an EWRC can occur, the longer Erin tracks due west.

[aspen]

919.9mb extrapolated and 155 kt FL in the NW quad.

Yeah there’s little doubt this is a 5.

[Cachondo23]

Is Erin in range of any of the island radars?

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/standard/TJUA_loop.gif

[HurricaneAndre2008]

919.9 mb
(~ 27.17 inHg

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is now quite a bit south of the forecast point, and it keeps going west.

[jlauderdal]

Given Erin's strength I would bet the anti-cyclone itself is the main-factor steering Erin.
If that is the case, the longer before an EWRC can occur, the longer Erin tracks due west.

The westerly component matched up well with the intensification process we saw earlier today. I wont overdo it with creating its own environment but there is no doubt at this intensity, the system has more influence than usual with the direction of travel as it pushes on the ridge. Get your protractor out because its all about the angle of approach next week.

[MarioProtVI]

Just realized the fly in the ointment is the 155 kt FL was at 750 mb which rounds down (0.87 reduction) to 135.7 kt, so it’s gonna be very close to whether or not NHC goes Cat 5. I’d assume the dropping pressure should lean towards it? Depends on whether AF (flying at 700mb) gets higher winds before the advisory and looming EWRC.

[skillz305]

At what point do we get concerned in Florida? Highly unlikely anything happens over here but I think we are now starting to hope for a WNW movement anytime now…

[ScottNAtlanta]

I don't see the weakness as of yet

[eastcoastFL]

Given Erin's strength I would bet the anti-cyclone itself is the main-factor steering Erin.
If that is the case, the longer before an EWRC can occur, the longer Erin tracks due west.

Is that the anti-cyclone north of Hispaniola tugging it westward?

[abajan]

The only analog at this point is Irma and Maria… so glad it’s going away from land.

But is it actually going away from land? The prolonged westward motion is becoming increasingly disconcerting. Really interested to see what the next advisory and forecast discussion states about this.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Given Erin's strength I would bet the anti-cyclone itself is the main-factor steering Erin.
If that is the case, the longer before an EWRC can occur, the longer Erin tracks due west.

Is that the anti-cyclone north of Hispaniola tugging it westward?

It looks to me like the high pressure over the southeastern US is stronger than forecast, also that trough in the TN valley doesn't look right either

[Beef Stew]

Erin very well may end up making a run at Irma’s record for most intense hurricane by MSLP in the open Atlantic, which stands at 914 mb.

[WaveBreaking]

[eastcoastFL]

The hurricane has been moving a bit to the left of the previous
forecast track with the initial motion of 280/15. The track guidance
suggests that Erin will turn back to the west-northwest with a
decrease in forward speed during the next 6-12 h on the south side
of a subtropical ridge. This motion should then continue through
the weekend, taking the core of Erin to the north of the eastern
Caribbean Islands through Sunday.