ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

Of course the hurricane is going to "explode" again just after recon leaves it

[cheezyWXguy]

Cdo cloud tops continuing to cool while the eye remains stable…for now. Erin may be able to eek out a bit more intensification before fully leveling off.

[Teban54]

Looks like the CDO has become less symmetric in the last hour or so. Is there a slight uptick in shear, or is this only due to Erin's motion and/or possible EWRC attempts?

[Cachondo23]

Erin saying goodbye to NE Caribbean islands.

[BobHarlem]

Erin seems to be wobbling a bit back west on the radar, the eye may be shrinking also. Not the best on this long range since the radar is seeing so high in the air, but WNW overall still.

[aspen]

Looks like the CDO has become less symmetric in the last hour or so. Is there a slight uptick in shear, or is this only due to Erin's motion and/or possible EWRC attempts?

https://i.postimg.cc/5NjRD2fS/goes19-ir-05-L-202508161215.gif

I suspect it could be due to the upcoming EWRC and the outer eyewall getting established. I recall many other upper-echelon Atlantic systems have shown a similar structural change ahead of an EWRC.

[bob rulz]

Can't keep your eyes off of a hurricane even overnight these days....I saw it had just made hurricane status last time I checked yesterday, then when I was checking the news I saw "Hurricane Erin reaches category 5 intensity" and I literally yelled "excuse me, what?" out loud to myself.

I'm glad this one seems like it will have minimal land impacts.

[Craters]

https://imgur.com/bqXXTrc

That sure is an uncomfortable reminder of the head fake to the north that Ike threw at roughly the same longitude before it headed toward the Gulf...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml

[Craters]

The two recon planes about to cross the eye at the same time.
A wing wave would be nice.

Just keeping the wings attached would be even nicer...

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://imgur.com/bqXXTrc

That sure is an uncomfortable reminder of the head fake to the north that Ike threw at roughly the same longitude before it headed toward the Gulf...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml

Forecasting has come a LONG way since then

[cycloneye]

Another wobble west.

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1956782879016370384

[BobHarlem]

Another radar loop, this time with poorly drawn parallel lines to assist the wobble watchers.

[Craters]

Food for thought?

Just for the heck of it, I submitted this request to Microsoft Copilot: "Provide a plot of average hurricane intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale as a function of the solar Ap-index (independent variable) over the past 50 years." Here's what it came up with:



That came after I remembered GCANE's posts last year regarding solar activity and hurricane intensification. The solar Ap-index is only one variable of about a zillion and a half, but it's still kind of interesting. The color gradient supposedly represents the year of observation, but it didn't provide a scale.

For what it's worth, anyway...

[tropicwatch]

Looks like Erin will come relatively close to buoy 41043 which is currently reporting close to 18ft seas. It will be fun to watch the readings out of it as the day progresses.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043

[cycloneye]

AL, 05, 2025081618, , BEST, 0, 198N, 634W, 140, 915, HU

[Iceresistance]

Erin has been moving more west in the past several frames


https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bN014.gif

[HurricaneIrma]

Erin seems to be wobbling a bit back west on the radar, the eye may be shrinking also. Not the best on this long range since the radar is seeing so high in the air, but WNW overall still.
https://i.postimg.cc/wTjwcyMw/Radar-Scope-Export-20250816-133721.gif

The NHC is now saying westward now

[CronkPSU]

like yeah...i know it is going to turn, every model says it is going to turn but if i was in Puerto Rico right now...i'd be having my doubts right now

like if it was this close to cocoa beach, i would be pooping myself in East Orlando rn lol

[FrontRunner]

CDO looking healthier after a brief hiccup. Anyone got an ETA on the next center fix?

[aspen]

Erin has been moving more west in the past several frames

https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bN014.gif
https://s14.gifyu.com/images/bN014.gif

CDO has improved too, maybe the EWRC isn’t as imminent as I thought. Hopefully it keeps this up for the next center fix in a few hours.

Based on the last fix and its slightly better appearance, I think 145/913 could be a good estimate.