ATL: Ex INVEST 91L - Discussion (0/0)

[cycloneye]

Maybe a small increase of convection but not too much.

[wzrgirl1]

I still think it’s going to come back and form middle of next week. It’s not over till it’s over.

[emeraldislenc]

I agree still have to watch it. Too many people are saying "next." But I think we should keep a watchful eye.

[Woofde]

It's taken a step backward in development over the past 12 hours. The vorticity signature looks worse and the dry air infront is clearly hindering convection. Maybe it gets it's act together later in the Subtropics? A lot would need to happen quickly for this to threaten the islands now.

[Teban54]

The long-awaited convection at 12N finally appeared, except that to my untrained eye, they seem offset to the west of the low-level features.

[AutoPenalti]

The long-awaited convection at 12N finally appeared, except that to my untrained eye, they seem offset to the west of the low-level features.

https://i.postimg.cc/L5G0qV1y/goes19-ir-91-L-202509060115.gif

Entering DMIN, so have to wait and see.

[Travorum]

ASCAT shows a day without convection has significantly degraded whatever circulation 91L was attempting to develop:



Convection does seem to be increasing over the past few hours as DMIN approaches but it is still displaced northwest of the broad low level circulation. 91L's not quite dead yet but its heading that way if it can't maintain convection near its broad LLC, which most models show it failing to do over the next few days.

[ouragans]

Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited in association with
a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic. A drier air mass
is limiting the potential for development over the next couple of
days, and environmental conditions will remain only marginally
favorable thereafter. A tropical depression could form during the
early to middle part of next week as the system moves westward at
around 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. This system is
likely to be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle to latter part
of next week, and interests there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[al78]

It is turning out like this analogy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNYWcVq_h8g

[jlauderdal]

It is turning out like this analogy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNYWcVq_h8g

Or a false start, 5 yard penalty. ACE is down and so is post count on this board

[GCANE]

Oceansat is showing a nice closed circulation.
This is sitting in a low-shear environment, so convection at this point will be limited.
Waiting to see if it taps into the high moist air from the Amazon which will be around 50W.
Going to be a couple days.
Models hate it, but they have a bad record on development.

[GCANE]

Some overshooting cloud tops at dawn.
Not dead yet.

[GCANE]

Has convection firing along a dryline.
Very typical of a pouch moving thru the MDR at this point.

[cycloneye]

Chances are decreasing for a TD to form.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a
small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive for development, and the
chances of this system becoming a tropical depression are
decreasing. The wave is expected to move generally westward at 10
to 15 mph, and will likely be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle
part of next week. Interests there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Pasch

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic is producing a
small area of shower activity. Environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive for development, and the chances of this
system becoming a tropical depression continue to diminish. The
wave is expected to move generally westward at 10 to 15 mph, and
will likely be near the Lesser Antilles by the middle part of next
week. Interests there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pretty spectacular model fail across the board on this one. Total ghost storm.

[galaxy401]

Not a good look for the Atlantic to have a disturbance in the MDR region in early September and have unfavorable conditions.

Power of the unfavorable MJO.

[LarryWx]

Not a good look for the Atlantic to have a disturbance in the MDR region in early September and have unfavorable conditions.

Power of the unfavorable MJO.

Interestingly, the MJO isn’t unfavorable. It’s currently in phase 2 and has been since Sep 2.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Pretty spectacular model fail across the board on this one. Total ghost storm.

One of the biggest busts in recent memory. And since all models failed I assume it has to be a data input issue?

[chaser1]

It's throwing arc clouds.