NATL: MELISSA - Models

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: again a run with no TCG. I’ll look at the maps when they come out to see what the track of the weak low is as well as other features.

[caneseddy]

12z Canadian keeps it weak and meandering in the Central Caribbean around Honduras/Nicaragua until Sunday and then it starts to ramp up and moves north and then northeast across Central Cuba next Wednesday passing about 200 miles east from South Florida

[AutoPenalti]

I'm not too overly concerned for SFL impacts right now. However Satellite imagery does indicate a weak circulation further south and west than what models currently have it at.

[Cachondo23]

This could be the last battle of the season between GFS and Euro, who will win?

[zzzh]

12z ECAI with a W shift.

[SFLcane]

This could be the last battle of the season between GFS and Euro, who will win?

In this case i vote for Euro.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET maps once again have the low stay in the S Car and go west into Nicaragua; low is a bit stronger with it down to 1003 at strongest

Will UK for 98L be a miserable fail, the big winner, or in between? Stay tuned!

[caneseddy]

After a stall south of Jamaica starting on Sunday Euro cuts Jamaica in half on Wednesday as a MH while heading N/NE and then landfalling in Western Cuba

[TomballEd]

I know the models have improved this century but I remember Mitch. Guidance was the proverbially squashed spider and shear did limit Mitch until suddenly it didn't.

Might be a couple more days until the models start converging on the correct solution.

[wzrgirl1]

Euro cuts Jamaica in half going SE to NE next Wednesday after stalling south of there on Monday and then landfalls in Western Cuba heading NE

Would you mind send a pic of that run please? I am at work and there are certain sites I can't go to. Thanks.

[AnnularCane]

This could be the last battle of the season between GFS and Euro, who will win?

Last tropical battle maybe (and not sure about that). But those two seem to be at war year round.

[SFLcane]

[boca]

https://i.postimg.cc/DfPvgCj2/ccc.png

Looks like a shift west on the Euro

[chaser1]

https://i.postimg.cc/DfPvgCj2/ccc.png

Looks like Panama and Southern Texas are in the clear

[DESTRUCTION5]

https://i.postimg.cc/DfPvgCj2/ccc.png

Looks like a shift west on the Euro

Operational is east shift though.

[TomballEd]

https://i.postimg.cc/DfPvgCj2/ccc.png

Looks like Panama and Southern Texas are in the clear

Historically, Texas has been in the clear since October 16 (anniversary of Hurricane Jerry) but mid and upper flow has been from the N or W since mid-September. I think the only part of CONUS at risk is the Keys and far S Florida and that looks like a low probability occurrence.

[caneman]

https://i.postimg.cc/DfPvgCj2/ccc.png

Looks like Panama and Southern Texas are in the clear

Historically, Texas has been in the clear since October 16 (anniversary of Hurricane Jerry) but mid and upper flow has been from the N or W since mid-September. I think the only part of CONUS at risk is the Keys and far S Florida and that looks like a low probability occurrence.

I wouldn't state that at 216 hours out. 7 day track error is some 300 miles.

[LarryWx]

12Z JMA (goes to 192): has a cat 1 hurricane headed due west to just offshore the Nicaragua/Honduras border. The prior 12Z was much faster and already almost to Belize at 192

[blp]

Most aggressive I have seen for this run.

[sasha_B]

No sub-900 hPa ensemble members on the latest GDM-FNV run as far as I could tell (there have been one or two on many of the recent ones) but there are at least two that go below 910 & plenty more in the 920s and 930s. As one might expect, it's the member lows that track further west and slow or stall in the western Caribbean that tend to have the really low pressures, although there's a not-insignificant number that turn north sooner and still reach or approach MH intensity.