ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

[NDG]

X is the 8 AM NHC best track position, compared to where the NOAA recon just found it's CoC. lol.
Edit: Even the recon plane had to head a little furthers SW to fix its center.

[xironman]

I'm not buying the NW movement. But it is slowing even more. Makes sense when you look at the steering currents.

[GCANE]

IR now showing strong gravity waves on the CDO.
A good sign Erin is strengthening.
Heading into higher SST.
Good thing they are evac'ing the Outer Banks.
May get dicey when approaching 30N.

[GCANE]

Now picking up high TPW air from the EPAC coming across Panama

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

[syfr]

Look what GFS has in store for next wednesday

[RJC51]

Hey guys - just a long time lurker. Are you getting the same quality and frequency of hurricane data since um the federal upheavals? Figured this'd be the place to ask. It's always been a quality lurk.

[GCANE]

No

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1957427941354446936

[abajan]

12Z Best Track:

AL, 05, 2025081812, , BEST, 0, 229N, 705W, 120, 935, HU

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm still not seeing a break in the ridge. It is much thinner, but it is still connected to CONUS ridge

[ScottNAtlanta]

Hey guys - just a long time lurker. Are you getting the same quality and frequency of hurricane data since um the federal upheavals? Figured this'd be the place to ask. It's always been a quality lurk.

What gives me pause is that the number of upstream weather balloons that sample the atmosphere over the US was cut significantly. This is the data that is used to feed to the models that predict things like high pressure ridge strength. Maybe they increased them for this, but as of now I have not heard that they have

[NDG]

According to the latest Euro run Erin should finally start a more consistent NW to NNW heading starting later today.
BTW, it has it down to 900mb while it tracks north to the east of FL.

[wxman57]

Hey guys I normally just stick to the winter threads but my brother is leaving for South Carolina Tuesday, what kind of conditions can they expect? Maybe just rain, wind and rough surf?

Rough surf late tomorrow through Thursday. Tides maybe 1-2 feet higher than normal. North wind 25 mph or so.

[tolakram]

Haha imgur, I found the direct GIF link. lol open image in new tab.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/MichaelIgbino10/status/1957424540239188478



Looks like models overestimated the shear and its impact on Erin

[GCANE]

Eyewall towers spewing cirrus are making IR fixes useless.
Better to hone in on microwave and recon.

[TallyTracker]

I’m a bit concerned about the rainbands training over Hispaniola right now. Doesn’t take a direct hit to cause major flash flooding and mudslides there due to the deforestation. Particularly on the Haiti side of the island.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Haha imgur, I found the direct GIF link. lol open image in new tab.

https://i.imgur.com/0uP4vtA.gif

I've had to use the old layout to get it to work

[kevin]

Wow, recon measured a 25.4C temperature in the eye at 750mb, very impressive.

[kevin]

The (presumably) final pass from recon found 934.9 mb with 12 kt winds and peak FL winds of 118 kt. Unless a dropsonde corrects the pressure this would probably result in a 934mb. Two hours ago 133 kt FL winds were measured which would result in a 120 kt estimate. But since those winds haven't been measured since then I wouldn't be surprised if NHC decided to go with 115 kt.