ATL: IAN - Models

[Bocadude85]

18z TVCN just in with a large east shift, just offshore Tampa heading for the Nature Coast.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/1574112618121465856

[cycloneye]

Big shift east by TVCN.

[chaser1]

I think that we're at a point of just seeing how the next 12 hours plays out. Deviation from expected strengthening and track today and tonight could have real downstream impact on who is eventually impacted.

[CrazyC83]

18Z consensus (TVCN) shifts east and almost now to west coast of Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/J7P8kDvD/09-L-tracks-18z.png

That would focus the worst impacts around Gainesville, Ocala and The Villages, and maybe Hernando County as well.

[StPeteMike]

18Z consensus (TVCN) shifts east and almost now to west coast of Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/J7P8kDvD/09-L-tracks-18z.png

That would focus the worst impacts around Gainesville, Ocala and The Villages, and maybe Hernando County as well.

West coast from Manatee up would get hammered. Even when Ian pulls away, there will be a day of lingering bands on top of the impacts that are direct

[ronjon]

18Z consensus (TVCN) shifts east and almost now to west coast of Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/J7P8kDvD/09-L-tracks-18z.png

That would focus the worst impacts around Gainesville, Ocala and The Villages, and maybe Hernando County as well.

West coast from Manatee up would get hammered. Even when Ian pulls away, there will be a day of lingering bands on top of the impacts that are direct

It would ravage the coast and barrier islands from Sarasota to Cedar Key. You would probably be looking at storm surges of 8-10 feet. Me in Hernando County on the Gulf Coast would be at ground zero.

[jlauderdal]

There's gotta be a decision made as to whether the GFS or Euro will be more accurate soon. If the Euro is more accurate, Tampa is in serious danger.

They look at those big time but it cant be stressed how important the TVCN is for the track you see from the NHC.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro ensembles quite clustered from Naples to Cedar Key with some tracks over the EGOM and into the Big Bend and Panhandle. Less stalls in the EGOM this run.

[StAuggy]

I know that the flooding can be really bad, but I think we should all be grateful of the amount of shear that's forecasted to be in the northern gulf.... I can't even imagine how horrible this situation would have been if the conditions were great for intensification, rather than weakening. Cat 1 to maybe Cat 2 seems the most likely strength at landfall... .. I'm not really concerned about the wind as much though, except on the coast... I'm concerned about the rain/surge, especially if the EURO wins out and there's more of a stall over Florida......

Nhc is forecasting a cat 2/3 landfalling on the FL west coast. Just want to make that distinction.

[NDG]

Definitely the NHC will have to switch their track back east closer to the TVCN if not on top of it.

[ConvergenceZone]

I know that the flooding can be really bad, but I think we should all be grateful of the amount of shear that's forecasted to be in the northern gulf.... I can't even imagine how horrible this situation would have been if the conditions were great for intensification, rather than weakening. Cat 1 to maybe Cat 2 seems the most likely strength at landfall... .. I'm not really concerned about the wind as much though, except on the coast... I'm concerned about the rain/surge, especially if the EURO wins out and there's more of a stall over Florida......

Nhc is forecasting a cat 2/3 landfalling on the FL west coast. Just want to make that distinction.

True, but in my opinion, unless IAN gets going real soon, they will bring the strength down over time...........Like WXMAN said, the NHC has to be overly cautious, because it's better to have people over-prepared than being under-prepared.... It's all about public awareness. It's much better to call for a stronger storm and have it be weaker than to call for a weak storm and have it be stronger.........I've definitely learned that over my long years watching the tropics..... I'm in my upper 50s, so I'm an old fart here

[tolakram]

HWRF

5PM EDT, max wind 42kts


8PM EDT, max winds 44.7 kts


11PM EDT, max winds 49 kts


8AM Monday, max winds 68.8 kts

[NDG]

I would say that approximately 30 out of 50 members are from near Tampa Bay and or just north down to Naples.

[jlauderdal]

Definitely the NHC will have to switch their track back east closer to the TVCN if not on top of it.

If they want to get ahead of the curve they would go to the right of it.

[NDG]

Definitely the NHC will have to switch their track back east closer to the TVCN if not on top of it.

https://i.imgur.com/n3qeLxG.jpg

If they want to get ahead of the curve they would go to the right of it.

Not yet, they will wait for the GFS to keep trending to the right before doing so. They don't like to go with big shifts.

[PandaCitrus]

A lot will depend on the internal dynamics of the storm after Cuba. Small compact storm with small diameter eye like Charley and Andrew or beast like Katrina and Wilma with massive eye and wind field?

Wilma went from tiny pinhole eye to 60 mile wide eye as well so there can be much evolution. This is important for surge and where the max winds will be raking the coast.

Obviously bad but may not be catastrophically bad. Charley had very moderate surge due to small size.

That would focus the worst impacts around Gainesville, Ocala and The Villages, and maybe Hernando County as well.

West coast from Manatee up would get hammered. Even when Ian pulls away, there will be a day of lingering bands on top of the impacts that are direct

It would ravage the coast and barrier islands from Sarasota to Cedar Key. You would probably be looking at storm surges of 8-10 feet. Me in Hernando County on the Gulf Coast would be at ground zero.

[Frank P]

Actually the 18z NAM looks creditable with Ian heading towards NE/NNE towards the west coast of Fl, run ends att.

[jlauderdal]

Actually the 18z NAM looks creditable with Ian heading towards NE/NNE towards the west coast of Fl, run ends att.

https://i.ibb.co/BcRGShY/2-C2-D4-D41-5-F08-48-D3-B408-12606-E51574-F.jpg

You are a brave man posting the NAM in a tropical setup. It has value, but there are plenty of NAM haters.

[Recurve]

Worst case scenario for Tampa Bay.

https://i.imgur.com/sWjpCYv.gif

That puts the eye over my house. Central st. Pete. At least it's the high ground here. Tampa Bay getting the right side is indeed a bad bad track.