ATL: IAN - Models

[kevin]

GFS+54hrs, a MH just west of Tampa. Center is at 27N, -83.7W compared to 26.9N, -83.9W in the 06z run so it's a tiny bit further east now.

[cheezyWXguy]

Uh oh…gfs matching the icon’s track

[Jag95]

Getting very close to Tampa on this run.

[jfk08c]

Parking right on top of Tampa Bay... yikes

[kevin]

Yep, this is getting way too close. Clear NE movement through 54 - 66 hours. Now 0.8 degrees further east than 06z.

[cane5]

Is it me or are more of the models showing a crossing central Florida track? Per 12z model track guidance

Sorry for the ignorance is 12z the German model ?

12Z is a time at which model runs are initialized...equivalent to 0700 CDT. The German model is the ICON.

Thank you

[DestinHurricane]

that GFS run would pile up quite a surge parked there.... this is a very surge prone area

[pgoss11]

Yep, this is getting way too close. Clear NE movement through 54 - 66 hours. Now 0.8 degrees further east than 06z.

https://i.imgur.com/65voxGc.png

Wow! Is that a that a turn into Tampa Bay?

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... Making an E turn into Tampa area... Very large E shift for close range...

[kevin]

12z GFS stalls this right over Tampa, like ICON this is pretty much the worst-case scenario. Expect mass evacuations if the other models (mainly the euro) also show this.

[Blown Away]

[tolakram]

[CronkPSU]

if this comes in at a cat 4...with that path, we are looking at a Katrina type impact

[kevin]

Since both ICON & GFS now show a very similar path (but significantly different from the 06z counterparts) could it be that some new data from the recon missions was used in the latest runs? That would explain why GFS suddenly shifts so far east for a forecast that's now well within 90 hrs.

[jfk08c]

9 hours of complete stalling directly on top of Tampa Bay on latest GFS. I'm not talking about very slow movement north, I'm talking literally doesn't move for 9 hours

[pgoss11]

12z GFS stalls this right over Tampa, like ICON this is pretty much the worst-case scenario. Expect mass evacuations if the other models (mainly the euro) also show this.

That would be horrendous! Let’s hope it’s wrong.

[tolakram]

[cane5]

And that's what the 12Z ICON wrote.... Slight left shift from previous runs, but stronger, still hits Tampa.

https://i.imgur.com/XOVQvtT.png

Moved up a bit from yesterday.

[tolakram]

You really have to hate all these models. I thought I ran the Canadian here by accident, this is the Euro.

[KC7NEC]

if this comes in at a cat 4...with that path, we are looking at a Katrina type impact

Even a Cat 1 on this path is going to have devastating impacts from rain and storm surge.... wind isn't everything. I'd rather have a 6-hour Cat 3 then this thing.