ATL: IAN - Models

[Kohlecane]

https://i.imgur.com/yzYnUKs.png

almost identical to the 12z EURO

[tolakram]

[NDG]

Using the technique Levi Cowan showed, eyewall looks intact, wet all around.

https://i.imgur.com/hqELRQq.png

No doubt it will make landfall as a MH hurricane, just hopefully not as a Cat 4 as I mentioned earlier.

[tolakram]

18Z GFS

[CronkPSU]

https://i.imgur.com/yzYnUKs.png

almost identical to the 12z EURO

Not sure on the two paths but the GFS is a bit slower

[NDG]

Crazy forecasted rainfall totals by the 18z GFS across central FL.
That's what I mean about the NW quadrant having the heaviest rain as forecasted by the GFS and Euro.

[Kohlecane]

https://i.imgur.com/yzYnUKs.png

almost identical to the 12z EURO

Not sure on the two paths but the GFS is a bit slower

For sure but 12z EURO had a Savannah landfall borderline Cat 1 now GFS is between Savannah and HH ..so I'm eagerly watching now.. Matthew was a pain in the butt in 2016

[Poonwalker]

Wow. That affects some of the most populated areas through Fl. Going to be historic power outages for a long time. Very messy and dangerous work ahead.

[jdjaguar]

Crazy forecasted rainfall totals by the 18z GFS across central FL.
That's what I mean about the NW quadrant having the heaviest rain as forecasted by the GFS and Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/XCIaDxC.png

can you post an expanded image that includes NE FL?

[pgoss11]

I guess a second landfall after crossing the peninsula is not out of the question. ICON really strengthens it before hitting the Charleston area.

[tolakram]

[aspen]

This ongoing EWRC is on the 12z HWRF. It shows the EWRC completing overnight and Ian peaking at 120-125 kt and 935-933 mbar, before weakening Wednesday night into Thursday as it rides the coast up into the Tampa area and gets hit by shear.

[skyline385]

Want to say something which would probably get my post nuked

[NFLnut]

Want to say something which would probably get my post nuked

https://i.imgur.com/oAqVpo8.png

You mean, like DADGUM?!

[aspen]

Want to say something which would probably get my post nuked

https://i.imgur.com/oAqVpo8.png

Peaks at 130 kt and 928mb around noon tomorrow, then makes landfall tomorrow night as a Cat 4. I sure hope it’s wrong about the EWRC successfully completing.

[tolakram]

Sadly this is the best model for intensity, and I'm not sure upper level conditions are good enough to support this.

[O Town]

Crazy forecasted rainfall totals by the 18z GFS across central FL.
That's what I mean about the NW quadrant having the heaviest rain as forecasted by the GFS and Euro.

https://i.imgur.com/XCIaDxC.png

Bruh! That’s insane. Glad hubby snagged the last trash sump pump from Home Depot yesterday. We now have two to move this water out. Says 20” in my location.

[tolakram]

[SFLcane]

18z Ukmet even stronger…

[SFLcane]