ATL: IAN - Models

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Fancy1001
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1021 Postby Fancy1001 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:34 pm

AJC3 wrote:'The center hasn't even formed yet' talk is quickly on its way to becoming null and void from here on out. In fact, this morning's scatterometer data (13Z-14Z) and satellite derived winds showed a pretty well-defined surface-850MB vorticity center that should have gone into the initialization of the 18Z model guidance, and I suspect it will be at least as well-defined in the upcoming 00Z runs. How well the model guidance initializes it is another matter, however we're at the point now where we have a decent LL center fix to work with.

So now it's off to the races.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1022 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:36 pm



what is going on with the storm once it hits florida, looks like a paintball and scatters all over the place before consolidating again when it hits the Atlantic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1023 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:50 pm

Bigger takeaway on the 18z HWRF is the fact that it appears to be turning northeast during the final few frames.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1024 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:58 pm

18Z Euro looks a bit stronger and a bit more north at 72 hours. The trough looks stronger too. Wonder if it continues on if it misses Florida to the east entirely? Keep in mind even if it barely misses to the east, there would be minimal impacts with Florida on “dry side” of storm. Bahamas not so much though.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1025 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:01 pm

Tcvn now almost to Fort Myers…00z

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1026 Postby shah83 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:04 pm

Crazy strong trough on that 18z Euro.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1027 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:07 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z Euro looks a bit stronger and a bit more north at 72 hours. The trough looks stronger too. Wonder if it continues on if it misses Florida to the east entirely? Keep in mind even if it barely misses to the east, there would be minimal impacts with Florida on “dry side” of storm. Bahamas not so much though.

https://i.postimg.cc/3RGSxWB4/ec-fast-z500a-Norm-watl-4.png



Hmm, I wonder if this will be the run where it completely misses Florida?...I guess we will find out.......
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1028 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:07 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z Euro looks a bit stronger and a bit more north at 72 hours. The trough looks stronger too. Wonder if it continues on if it misses Florida to the east entirely? Keep in mind even if it barely misses to the east, there would be minimal impacts with Florida on “dry side” of storm. Bahamas not so much though.

https://i.postimg.cc/3RGSxWB4/ec-fast-z500a-Norm-watl-4.png


Are there any models that are that Far East right now? Would it be weaker since it would spend less time over water and less time near the warmer spots around Cuba and Florida?
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1029 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:08 pm

CronkPSU wrote:


what is going on with the storm once it hits florida, looks like a paintball and scatters all over the place before consolidating again when it hits the Atlantic
That's an ensemble suite, all those low pressure centers are different members' tracks.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1030 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:09 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
gatorcane wrote:18Z Euro looks a bit stronger and a bit more north at 72 hours. The trough looks stronger too. Wonder if it continues on if it misses Florida to the east entirely? Keep in mind even if it barely misses to the east, there would be minimal impacts with Florida on “dry side” of storm. Bahamas not so much though.

https://i.postimg.cc/3RGSxWB4/ec-fast-z500a-Norm-watl-4.png


Are there any models that are that Far East right now? Would it be weaker since it would spend less time over water and less time near the warmer spots around Cuba and Florida?


Yes but only the lowly NAVGEM. It shows a weaker storm just missing Florida to the east. Usually you use the NAVGEM to figure out where the storm is not going. :lol: but oddly enough the Euro has been trending toward the NAVGEM.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1031 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:15 pm

gatorcane wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
gatorcane wrote:18Z Euro looks a bit stronger and a bit more north at 72 hours. The trough looks stronger too. Wonder if it continues on if it misses Florida to the east entirely? Keep in mind even if it barely misses to the east, there would be minimal impacts with Florida on “dry side” of storm. Bahamas not so much though.

https://i.postimg.cc/3RGSxWB4/ec-fast-z500a-Norm-watl-4.png


Are there any models that are that Far East right now? Would it be weaker since it would spend less time over water and less time near the warmer spots around Cuba and Florida?


Yes but only the lowly NAVGEM. It shows a weaker storm just missing Florida to the east. Usually you use the NAVGEM to figure out where the storm is not going. :lol: but oddly enough the Euro has been trending toward the NAVGEM.

https://i.postimg.cc/4dGtpdGh/nvg10-sfc10m-120-go-mex.gif


Interesting, a stronger trough in this run looks like a player now. I wonder if that will continue in future runs. Would sure be nice for this to miss the peninsula.
Last edited by eastcoastFL on Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1032 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:16 pm

Euro 18z a bit east again.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1033 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:19 pm

18Z EPS mean significantly SE of the 12Z EPS mean with the mean track now just off the SE tip of FL vs over S FL on the 12Z! Practically every track of the 51 18Z members is SE of Ft Myers! There are more tracks SE of FL than in S FL.
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1034 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:19 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Euro 18z a bit east again.


And weaker. It would have to cross over the high Terrain of Cuba to reach Florida and also probably would miss Florida to the east.

Saved loop:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1035 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:23 pm

LarryWx wrote:18Z EPS mean significantly SE of the 12Z EPS mean with the mean track now just off the SE tip of FL vs over S FL on the 12Z! Practically every track of the 51 18Z members is SE of Ft Myers! There are more tracks SE of FL than in S FL.


Wow this is some trough! Is it November?!? To think it could track east of Florida is not what I expected. We will know with tonight’s runs if it is a trend or just windshield wiping.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1036 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:25 pm

gatorcane wrote:
LarryWx wrote:18Z EPS mean significantly SE of the 12Z EPS mean with the mean track now just off the SE tip of FL vs over S FL on the 12Z! Practically every track of the 51 18Z members is SE of Ft Myers! There are more tracks SE of FL than in S FL.


Wow this is some trough! Is it November?!? To think it could track east of Florida is not going with climo that is for sure.


It seems like Winter wants to start early.

Does it seem like that the models either underestimate or overestimate the trough more often than not?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1037 Postby Pelicane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:26 pm

18z Euro Ensembles
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1038 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:27 pm

gatorcane wrote:
LarryWx wrote:18Z EPS mean significantly SE of the 12Z EPS mean with the mean track now just off the SE tip of FL vs over S FL on the 12Z! Practically every track of the 51 18Z members is SE of Ft Myers! There are more tracks SE of FL than in S FL.


Wow this is some trough! Is it November?!? To think it could track east of Florida is not what I expected. We will know with tonight’s runs if it is a trend or just windshield wiping.

My guess is that it is 65% trend and 35% windshield wiping. Irma's tracks did this too
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1039 Postby caneseddy » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:30 pm



Interesting that the stronger members hit south Florida and weaker ones stay east
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1040 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:30 pm

gatorcane wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:Euro 18z a bit east again.


And weaker. It would have to cross over the high Terrain of Cuba to reach Florida and also probably would miss Florida to the east.

Saved loop:

https://i.postimg.cc/y8F0xc4z/ecmwf-z850-vort-watl-fh0-90.gif


Quite a bit different than buying into the GFS west of FL solutions just 24 hours ago right gator? Perhaps you are learning that loyalty to a climo calendar isn’t bullet proof! We never stop learning!
Last edited by toad strangler on Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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