ATL: IAN - Models

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ConvergenceZone
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1041 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:30 pm

gatorcane wrote:
LarryWx wrote:18Z EPS mean significantly SE of the 12Z EPS mean with the mean track now just off the SE tip of FL vs over S FL on the 12Z! Practically every track of the 51 18Z members is SE of Ft Myers! There are more tracks SE of FL than in S FL.


Wow this is some trough! Is it November?!? To think it could track east of Florida is not what I expected. We will know with tonight’s runs if it is a trend or just windshield wiping.


I think we will wake up tomorrow and see other models also shifting east of Florida as well. Like you said, that's a monster trough coming down........It might be the saving grace for the USA and hopefully it won't hit any populated areas as it moves across Cuba....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1042 Postby caneseddy » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:36 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
LarryWx wrote:18Z EPS mean significantly SE of the 12Z EPS mean with the mean track now just off the SE tip of FL vs over S FL on the 12Z! Practically every track of the 51 18Z members is SE of Ft Myers! There are more tracks SE of FL than in S FL.


Wow this is some trough! Is it November?!? To think it could track east of Florida is not what I expected. We will know with tonight’s runs if it is a trend or just windshield wiping.


I think we will wake up tomorrow and see other models also shifting east of Florida as well. Like you said, that's a monster trough coming down........It might be the saving grace for the USA and hopefully it won't hit any populated areas as it moves across Cuba....


I think the trough is just a bit overdone on that run. I don’t doubt it will be strong but I don’t think it will be that strong. I think the Euro will correct itself back west in subsequent runs (hope I’m wrong)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1043 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:36 pm

18z Euro control misses south Florida and is out to sea after that :lol: . What a fitting "2022 season style" conclusion this would be for this storm that had (still has) the potential to be a catastrophic gulf storm which had some of the strongest major model agreement we've seen in some time. We'll find out soon, it appears.

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Last edited by PTrackerLA on Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:54 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1044 Postby Spacecoast » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:38 pm

With Fiona, the ECMF 'followed' it's ensemble mean.

IF 0z ECMF gets pulled this hard NE, (like this 18z ens mean), tomorrow's TVCN track will be interesting, (at least to me)...
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Last edited by Spacecoast on Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1045 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:39 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:18z Euro control misses south Florida and is out to sea after that :lol: . What a fitting "2022 season style" conclusion this would be for this storm that has (still has) the potential to be a catastrophic gulf storm which had some of the strongest major model agreement we've seen in some time. We'll find out soon, it appears.

https://i.imgur.com/O5NuRkS.png



So now the Euro is the outlier…Gonna be a fun couple of days with the windshield wiper models. Hopefully the models tomorrow night will have a better grasp.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1046 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:40 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:18z Euro control misses south Florida and is out to sea after that :lol: . What a fitting "2022 season style" conclusion this would be for this storm that has (still has) the potential to be a catastrophic gulf storm which had some of the strongest major model agreement we've seen in some time. We'll find out soon, it appears.

https://i.imgur.com/O5NuRkS.png



It's also very weak. Like WXMAN said, it could be traversing over very high Cuban mountains, hence the rapid weakening
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1047 Postby Blown Away » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:41 pm

I’m still puzzled with the GFS as W outlier and Euro E outlier… Can’t think of any hurricane where that happened day after day.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1048 Postby typhoonty » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:42 pm

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573122275175706624




Former regular Alonyo cautions that 18Z Euro may be an overcorrection, similar to 00Z euro Tuesday evening.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1049 Postby pgoss11 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:43 pm

Spacecoast wrote:With Fiona, the ECMF 'followed' it's ensemble mean.

IF 0z ECMF gets pulled this hard NE, (like this 18z ens mean), tomorrow's TVCN track will be interesting, (at least to me)...
https://i.ibb.co/Rp0sXzF/chd.jpg

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1050 Postby aspen » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:45 pm

What causes the Euro to be weaker but turn north sooner, and the GFS/HWRF to be stronger and further south? It’s such a weird flip-flop of typical model track biases.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1051 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:50 pm

aspen wrote:What causes the Euro to be weaker but turn north sooner, and the GFS/HWRF to be stronger and further south? It’s such a weird flip-flop of typical model track biases.


I think it’s weaker because it spends more time over mountainous parts of Cuba in this run and misses out on more time over the warmest waters. So it’s kinda beat after it crosses Cuba. That part makes sense. The quicker turn north I’m not so sold on. It will be interesting if the other models predict a trough as strong as the euro has in this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1052 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:01 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
aspen wrote:What causes the Euro to be weaker but turn north sooner, and the GFS/HWRF to be stronger and further south? It’s such a weird flip-flop of typical model track biases.


I think it’s weaker because it spends more time over mountainous parts of Cuba in this run and misses out on more time over the warmest waters. So it’s kinda beat after it crosses Cuba. That part makes sense. The quicker turn north I’m not so sold on. It will be interesting if the other models predict a trough as strong as the euro has in this run.

At this point I would not be shocked if at least 20% of this is just windshield wiping. Definitely could miss us to the east, but too early to see if it won't swing back west just as easily. I remember the windshield wiping with Irma, as it appeared there was a good chance it would miss us to the east.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1053 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:02 pm

I could see the 18z Euro's track verifying but that intensity doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Slow development in the Western Caribbean does not line up with what the models have consistently been showing and the predicted environment. I think it's too weak through the Caribbean. But an outright Florida/CONUS miss doesn't seem totally impossible either.

Windshield wiping in full force now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1054 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:09 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1055 Postby caneseddy » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:10 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1056 Postby caneseddy » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:11 pm

typhoonty wrote:https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573122275175706624

Former regular Alonyo cautions that 18Z Euro may be an overcorrection, similar to 00Z euro Tuesday evening.


Other mets also agree with Derek about this being an overcorrection on the Euro.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1057 Postby Steve H. » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:12 pm

Think the euro is a bit too far east. Hopefully it will continue too far east… out to sea with very little effect on the Bahamas. But I fear that it’s going to split the difference and go somewhere between ft Myers’s and the big bend as a badass hurricane. In the meantime, we wait and see if it develops :spam: :wink: :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1058 Postby Keldeo1997 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:14 pm

aspen wrote:What causes the Euro to be weaker but turn north sooner, and the GFS/HWRF to be stronger and further south? It’s such a weird flip-flop of typical model track biases.


 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573058727401455619




Explaned here. A weaker storm would be more influenced by the weakness that Fiona has on the ridge causing it to travel more N/NW. A stronger storm would be influenced by Fiona's outflow causing a more W/SW track. EURO seems to be weak causing it to be influenced by the ridge to much.
Last edited by Keldeo1997 on Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1059 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:16 pm

It's crazy comparing Euro ensembles that miss Florida to the east to the GFS from this morning that was on the TX/LA border. A difference of almost 1000 miles.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1060 Postby Keldeo1997 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:20 pm

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1573079149815775234




One thing to note is that the GFS might be over doing the shear in the gulf.
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