ATL: IAN - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#981 Postby Pelicane » Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:43 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Pelicane wrote:Essentially what the GFS wants to do is refocus the center to the more vigorous MLC. This is the 500 mb plot, and if you compare it the 850 mb one you'll see the two are offset.
https://imgur.com/KSqPSa8


So here is the Z500 before the center relocates, I dont think this classifies as a vigorous MLC personally. There isnt even a vortmax visible, it forms in the next screen when the LLC relocates which doesnt seem right

https://i.imgur.com/M5LtXaz.png


It's most likely overdoing it, but with a broad circulation you can have center jumps. If you have northerly shear pushing convection south away from the LLC, the MLC might try to take charge.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#982 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:50 pm

Evening everyone
I have been on following this week but not logged in. That said I am still waiting and watching, but must say the most recent runs of the EURO and now to some extent the GFS have me a bit concerned here in Key Largo. Any storm coming up from the south is tuff to predict where and when the turn comes, guess I start prepping some this weekend, everyone stay safe.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#983 Postby StAuggy » Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:51 pm

Just curious if Fiona phasing into a mega storm will have any effect on the weather pattern back over the states in regards to this trough for 98L that the models might be missing?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#984 Postby stormhunter7 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:52 pm

looks like 18z GFS is now shifted with a turn in the GOM to the NE, SW of Tampa?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#985 Postby caneseddy » Thu Sep 22, 2022 5:57 pm

stormhunter7 wrote:looks like 18z GFS is now shifted with a turn in the GOM to the NE, SW of Tampa?


Landfalls in Big Bend. Looks like the shear really does a number..goes from 949 to 973 at landfall

Still another shift east for the GFS..slowly coming in line with the eastern set of models

I think we’re starting to narrow down potential landfall to the Peninsula as wxman57 has said for the past several days

Of course this is assumption until the center forms
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#986 Postby stormhunter7 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:00 pm

caneseddy wrote:
stormhunter7 wrote:looks like 18z GFS is now shifted with a turn in the GOM to the NE, SW of Tampa?


Landfalls in Big Bend. Looks like the shear really does a number..goes from 949 to 973 at landfall

Still another shift east for the GFS..slowly coming in line with the eastern set of models

I think we’re starting to narrow down potential landfall to the Peninsula as wxman57 has said for the past several days

Of course this is assumption until the center forms


Thats a pretty significant cold air mass. Upper 40s in north Ga., Alabama on Wednesday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#987 Postby Jevo » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:06 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#988 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:08 pm



I did not know that the UKMET even had ensembles.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#989 Postby ronjon » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:15 pm

One of the differences between GFS and Euro is the strength of the east coast trough. The Euro shows the 585 dm equipotential down into the north-central GOM, while the GFS is into the FL panhandle at 96 hours. The Euro also has a slight positive tilt while the GFS is more neutral tilt. These subtle differences in the orientation and strength of trough obviously play a big role in the day 4 and 5 track. Also the GFS starts to lift out the trough at 96 hrs while the Euro takes another 24 hrs to start to lift out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#990 Postby stormhunter7 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:22 pm

So GFS 18z goes in around Apalachicola? But is really falling apart as it moves inland. Sub 930mb in southern GOM to 970-980 at northern GOM?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#991 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:22 pm

ronjon wrote:One of the differences between GFS and Euro is the strength of the east coast trough. The Euro shows the 585 dm equipotential down into the north-central GOM, while the GFS is into the FL panhandle at 96 hours. The Euro also has a slight positive tilt while the GFS is more neutral tilt. These subtle differences in the orientation and strength of trough obviously play a big role in the day 4 and 5 track. Also the GFS starts to lift out the trough at 96 hrs while the Euro takes another 24 hrs to start to lift out.

the GFS bias does tend to progress setups like this too quickly in situations like this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#992 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:32 pm

18z HWRF coming in slightly further north and slightly stronger.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#993 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:35 pm

Does anyone have access to the euro that shows predicted/potential rainfall amounts for the storm? I’m curious about what kind of potential flooding rain Florida could see. Thanks
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#994 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:41 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:Dows anyone have access to the euro that shows predicted/potential rainfall amounts for the storm? I’m curious about what kind of potential flooding rain Florida could see. Thanks


Not sure where that specific information can be found, however I will offer this. I would think that the rainfall impact, while heavy, would not be as significant since the storm should be moving off to the Northeast at a pretty good pace.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#995 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:45 pm

HWRF predicting that the system starts getting its act together in about 60 hours. Before that it’s bouncing around between 1000mb and 1005mb for about a day.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#996 Postby TheHurricaneGod » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:45 pm

The 18z GEFS shifted east by a good 150 miles or so. Has a cluster over south FL at 132 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#997 Postby skyline385 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:48 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:Does anyone have access to the euro that shows predicted/potential rainfall amounts for the storm? I’m curious about what kind of potential flooding rain Florida could see. Thanks


Here you go, going to be moving fast with a cold front pulling it out so not something insane like Fiona.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#998 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:49 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:Dows anyone have access to the euro that shows predicted/potential rainfall amounts for the storm? I’m curious about what kind of potential flooding rain Florida could see. Thanks


Not sure where that specific information can be found, however I will offer this. I would think that the rainfall impact, while heavy, would not be as significant since the storm should be moving off to the Northeast at a pretty good pace.


You can kinda see it on the low res version on TT but it’s hard to make out. Looks like it might be about 7-10in of total rainfall for Floridas east coast from tue to thu. Not as bad as prior storms but still quite a bit over 48 hours.


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#999 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:50 pm

skyline385 wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:Does anyone have access to the euro that shows predicted/potential rainfall amounts for the storm? I’m curious about what kind of potential flooding rain Florida could see. Thanks


Here you go, going to be moving fast with a cold front pulling it out so not something insane like Fiona.

https://i.imgur.com/q0ARyOr.png


That’s the one, thank you! So far it looks like possible 6-10in for coastal areas. Not fun but we’ve seen worse.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#1000 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:52 pm

HWRF going beast mode, up to 130 knots and NE of the 12z position.
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