ATL: CHRIS - Remanants - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

94L just got tagged by the ATCF, this is the AOI in the Southern Caribbean

94L INVEST 240625 1800 12.2N 65.7W ATL 25 1010
al942024 INVEST 20240625 1831 12.20 -65.70 L DB 25.0 1010.0 -9999.99 -9999.99

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal942024.dat

[USTropics]

This is quite a lengthy tropical wave, with the southern axis extending all the way into the EPAC. Climatology would typically favor the southern axis/EPAC development, but as we just saw with the CAG, background forcing and the SSTA regime favors the northern axis remaining convectively active. Even raw SSTs show the Caribbean is warmer than the EPAC currently:


If this can stay north of Nicaragua, I could see some potential for development. This is certainly westward bound towards central America/BOC:

[GCANE]

Convection currently firing under an anticyclone.
On approach to the Yucatan, will be in very saturated air.
Keeping an eye on this one

[cycloneye]

Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A tropical wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves quickly
westward at around 25 mph. Environmental conditions could become
more conducive for some gradual development late this week over the
western Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[AnnularCane]

https://i.imgur.com/UQAZQDi.gif

No wonder they call that area the graveyard.

[wxman57]

Looks like this wave will bury itself in Central America. Very low chance of development. One thing you can see in the satellite loop is strong westerly upper-level wind on the south side of a TUTT axis that extends from the northern Yucatan, east across Cuba. Wave in eastern Atlantic will hit this shear in the Caribbean. it could develop east of the Caribbean, though.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is moving really fast and the thunderstorms are being displaced to the east, but it looks like there is a robust low level spin moving within the envelope. If this stays north of CA and slows down, this could develop

[storm_in_a_teacup]

https://i.imgur.com/UQAZQDi.gif

No wonder they call that area the graveyard.

I've never heard this term before...why is the area called that?

[Woofde]

https://i.imgur.com/UQAZQDi.gif

No wonder they call that area the graveyard.

I've never heard this term before...why is the area called that?

The Eastern Carribean is generally not very friendly to cyclones compared to the rest of the basin. It kills a lot of storms, hence the name the Hurricane graveyard. A lot of factors in play that cause that, there's more windshear, dry air, etc.

If you look at the climo points of origin, you can see the clear hole. I included one of the images just for example.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

[floridasun]

let see do any thing under jamica if not runout time

[Nimbus]

let see do any thing under jamica if not runout time

Posted for wrong invest I'm already looking at 95L
They must think shear will be low along the track or they wouldn't have called the invest?
I see a wave apex down near 10.5 N with convection starting to build.
I hate the Caribbean runners..

[ElectricStorm]

It's going to need to lift north soon otherwise it'll bury itself into CA. Has a little more convection than yesterday but still has a lot of work to do.

[GCANE]

Recon mission projected for Friday afternoon

https://x.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1805971080860819701

[kevin]

Lots of convection now as it's approaching Yucatan. ASCAT is showing some 20 - 30 kt winds and a nearby surface measurement fell to 1009 mb against a background pressure of 1013 - 1015 mb. However, still a complete lack of any organisation, most likely due to the high shear (30 kt) environment.

[ChrisH-UK]

94L is having a large amount of convective activity just off the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. It also looks like it might be developing bands and wrapping around itself looking at the IR bands, going to be interesting once the sun comes up.

Source GOES-16 Clean IR - https://col.st/uS9DV

[LearnedHat]

So does this thing deliver rain to the Texas Hill Country, Concho Valley area? Or will it stay south before being swept off to the west?

[ChrisH-UK]

94L looks not as good as it did earlier in IR.

[cycloneye]

Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea is
producing widespread but disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph. Some
development of this system is possible over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Blinhart]

94L looks not as good as it did earlier in IR.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/3209/yAgEg8.gif [/url]

Hard to see if there is even a LLC trying to form.