ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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zzzh
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ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby zzzh » Wed Jun 26, 2024 3:10 pm

AL, 95, 2024062618, , BEST, 0, 100N, 305W, 20, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 75, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008, SPAWNINVEST, al782024 to al952024,


https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal952024.dat
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#2 Postby Nimbus » Wed Jun 26, 2024 3:16 pm

Hot tower near 10.4 N so Tstorm must be sheared north if this is at 10.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#3 Postby aspen » Wed Jun 26, 2024 3:30 pm

Look at that, a June MDR Invest. Kinda getting Elsa vibes from the timing and model runs. If this does become a hurricane, it’ll probably be weak and in the very easternmost Caribbean (or just before the islands).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#4 Postby MarioProtVI » Wed Jun 26, 2024 3:34 pm

aspen wrote:Look at that, a June MDR Invest. Kinda getting Elsa vibes from the timing and model runs. If this does become a hurricane, it’ll probably be weak and in the very easternmost Caribbean (or just before the islands).

Would be a major red flag though for peak season. Especially given the favorable conditions expected by September.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#5 Postby Kazmit » Wed Jun 26, 2024 4:03 pm

It seemed like the tropics were gonna quiet down for a while after Alberto but we have this and 94L. Seems likely to develop into a named storm, but it would surprise me if it becomes anything more than a moderate TS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#6 Postby GCANE » Wed Jun 26, 2024 4:06 pm

The whole ITCZ is under low shear to nearly 60W.
Once this gets to about 40W, will be in max saturated air.
Will be that way all the way to the islands.
It's an easy bet that this will be named.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#7 Postby GCANE » Wed Jun 26, 2024 4:16 pm

Keeping an eye on a UL Trough off the west coast of the CONUS once this gets in the Carib.
The anticyclone from the Trough could dig south into the Carib.
If that happens, could see some rapid development in the West Carib.
The typical dry air from the SA mountains will likely inhibit development in the east Carib.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#8 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Jun 26, 2024 4:23 pm

Looking decent, I think this will be the next TS and won't totally rule out a minimal hurricane but considering the time of year I have a hard time believing this will get that strong.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#9 Postby Zonacane » Wed Jun 26, 2024 4:26 pm

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#10 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jun 26, 2024 4:35 pm

Interesting that the GFS is giving up on it and the Euro develops a strong hurricane. Looks, to me, that the Caribbean may be a more hostile environment (shear) than the EC is depicting. We certainly don't want to see anything remotely close to what the EC is depicting, as far as the NW Gulf.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#11 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Jun 26, 2024 5:50 pm

wxman57 yeah thats not true, the GFS is now showing a stronger storm, not as strong as the euro but definitely stronger than its 12z run, now also has a system that survives the caribbean and doesnt just plow straight into CA
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ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#12 Postby Stratton23 » Wed Jun 26, 2024 5:56 pm

Although its far too early, unlike the last few weeks where he heat ridge has kept everything going into mexico, this system does have more interest in regards to potentially threatening the US gulf coast, GFS has some weak ridging but nothing too strong, If that euro run verified with the big trough coming down over the central US, that would almost certainly mean a US hit, but again its too early, but just thought id say this given some knuckle heads on social media are already making the early “ its no threat to the US/ gulf” comments
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#13 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Jun 26, 2024 6:22 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#14 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Jun 26, 2024 6:22 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#15 Postby Nimbus » Wed Jun 26, 2024 6:25 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Although its far too early, unlike the last few weeks where he heat ridge has kept everything going into mexico, this system does have more interest in regards to potentially threatening the US gulf coast, GFS has some weak ridging but nothing too strong, If that euro run verified with the big trough coming down over the central US, that would almost certainly mean a US hit, but again its too early, but just thought id say this given some knuckle heads on social media are already making the early “ its no threat to the US/ gulf” comments


So far I'm only seeing the sharp wave with some building convection, presumably its time to take up collections for the Gulf Coast property insurance pool given the Euro..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#16 Postby Ubuntwo » Wed Jun 26, 2024 6:27 pm

'Unusually conducive for late June'
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Satellite images indicate that a tropical wave located several
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better
organized since yesterday with a more concentrated area of
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
unusually conducive for late June across the central and western
tropical Atlantic, and further development of this system is
anticipated. A tropical depression or tropical storm could form
this weekend several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands
while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#17 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Jun 26, 2024 6:28 pm

Pattern reminds me more of emily 2005 or Dean 2007(about 70%). The ridging will probably block this from doing a Charley, Dennis or Ivan like tracks(20%). Mexico, central America and the Yucatan most likely, but I wouldn't rule out the later either as this is far into the future and later on this season as we get stronger weaknesses in the ridge then we'll probably get the later to. Just goes to show how strong the ridging is and how it will force things westward.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#18 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Jun 26, 2024 6:38 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#19 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Jun 26, 2024 6:42 pm

Possible development zone now includes its current location
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#20 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Jun 26, 2024 6:50 pm

The signs for this to develop (and that note about conditions being 'unusually conductive' from the NHC) appear a little bit more ominous than our usual early-July MDR trekker we've seen over the past decade or so.
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