ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4221 Postby Jr0d » Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:23 pm

bob rulz wrote:
I also think the data shows that this could've potentially been as high as 90mph at landfall, or perhaps 85mph. It seems like this has a real chance of receiving a higher landfall strength in post-season analysis.



It was close, but many see less that 100 mph or even less than cat 3 and think no big deal. The same concept applies to major storms, especially those on the 'left' generally weaker side. We have also had a few storms over the years that seemed to 'underperform' in terms of official intensity.

Also the issue of a strengthen storm versus weakening. A strengthening storm certainly feels stronger but I think a lot of this is because the stronger winds make it much further inland with a strengthening storm at landfall vs a weakening one.

Regardless, a hurricane is a hurricane, even if 'only a cat 1'. There is a reason the Beaufort scale tops out at 'minimal hurricane '
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4222 Postby bob rulz » Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:31 pm

I will never understand the mentality. Then again, I live somewhere that has no chance of being affected by hurricanes, unlike most people here, and really only follow as a hobby. I would also never live directly on a hurricane-prone coast, so the people that do are certainly braver than I.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4223 Postby Woofde » Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:32 pm

BobHarlem wrote:
bob rulz wrote:
Jr0d wrote:
I believe a major reason many have been in the other parts of 'only' a cat 1 or stronger storm several times and believe they went through full hurricane conditions when the reality is they experience at best moderate tropical storm conditions.

I have heard it countless times that someone claimed they were in 80 to 100 mph+ winds when the data showed their area at best was gusting to half of that and they were unwilling to listen to what the actual data says.

When those folks are facing the full brunt of "only" a cat 1 they get a false sense of security believing they know what a minimal hurricane is like.

As I said before, we have the distinction of a hurricane for a reason. While we are fairly safe in modern structures, hurricane force winds are no joke and mobile homes are not safe, nor is venturing outside.


I also think the data shows that this could've potentially been as high as 90mph at landfall, or perhaps 85mph. It seems like this has a real chance of receiving a higher landfall strength in post-season analysis.


Post Season analysis will be interesting on this one for sure. It really did intensify a LOT at landfall, see below:

 https://twitter.com/AaronRigsbyOSC/status/1810349881380176062


I was in the northern eyewall in Matagorda for over an hour. You could noticeably feel the wind ramping up inside during which. The wind wasn't very bursty either, it was largely sustained throughout.

I'm happy the storm didn't overperform, there were more people hunkering down past the bridge and levies than should've been.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4224 Postby ATXAG95 » Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:35 pm

It's pretty incredible. College Station and Bryan have wind damage all over the place. Thankfully no flooding.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4225 Postby Pipelines182 » Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:45 pm

Xyls wrote:
Pipelines182 wrote:The crazy thing is, we're already behind 2005 and we're about to get even further behind since that year is about to have Emily form.


I'm going to come in with a hot take and say that I don't actually think we will beat the # of named storms from 2005 or 2020 this year. That dust is going to muck stuff up until August. We may have a very 2017 like season instead with a parade of intense hurricanes in it's place.


Yeah I don't disagree, the MDR is no where even close to as anomalously warm as it was just a month ago, is it even warmer than 2005 anymore?
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4226 Postby USTropics » Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:56 pm

Pipelines182 wrote:
Xyls wrote:
Pipelines182 wrote:The crazy thing is, we're already behind 2005 and we're about to get even further behind since that year is about to have Emily form.


I'm going to come in with a hot take and say that I don't actually think we will beat the # of named storms from 2005 or 2020 this year. That dust is going to muck stuff up until August. We may have a very 2017 like season instead with a parade of intense hurricanes in it's place.


Yeah I don't disagree, the MDR is no where even close to as anomalously warm as it was just a month ago, is it even warmer than 2005 anymore?


Yes.
Image

Image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4227 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:56 pm

Wow, for a Category 1 storm, there seems to have been quite some damage done. Rapidly intensifying systems really do pack a punch compared to weakening systems. I’m starting to wonder if this may have a billion dollar damage amount in the CONUS alone when it’s all said and done. Wishing the best to everyone affected by this storm in Texas.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4228 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:57 pm

BobHarlem wrote:
bob rulz wrote:
Jr0d wrote:
I believe a major reason many have been in the other parts of 'only' a cat 1 or stronger storm several times and believe they went through full hurricane conditions when the reality is they experience at best moderate tropical storm conditions.

I have heard it countless times that someone claimed they were in 80 to 100 mph+ winds when the data showed their area at best was gusting to half of that and they were unwilling to listen to what the actual data says.

When those folks are facing the full brunt of "only" a cat 1 they get a false sense of security believing they know what a minimal hurricane is like.

As I said before, we have the distinction of a hurricane for a reason. While we are fairly safe in modern structures, hurricane force winds are no joke and mobile homes are not safe, nor is venturing outside.


I also think the data shows that this could've potentially been as high as 90mph at landfall, or perhaps 85mph. It seems like this has a real chance of receiving a higher landfall strength in post-season analysis.


Post Season analysis will be interesting on this one for sure. It really did intensify a LOT at landfall, see below:

https://twitter.com/AaronRigsbyOSC/status/1810349881380176062


When you see patchy damage like that, think tornadoes.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4229 Postby Ubuntwo » Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:02 pm

MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:
bob rulz wrote:
I also think the data shows that this could've potentially been as high as 90mph at landfall, or perhaps 85mph. It seems like this has a real chance of receiving a higher landfall strength in post-season analysis.


Post Season analysis will be interesting on this one for sure. It really did intensify a LOT at landfall, see below:

https://twitter.com/AaronRigsbyOSC/status/1810349881380176062


When you see patchy damage like that, think tornadoes.

These are the most exposed structures on a beach that received the most intense portion of Beryl’s eyewall. Not tornadoes.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4230 Postby Pipelines182 » Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:02 pm

USTropics wrote:
Pipelines182 wrote:
Xyls wrote:
I'm going to come in with a hot take and say that I don't actually think we will beat the # of named storms from 2005 or 2020 this year. That dust is going to muck stuff up until August. We may have a very 2017 like season instead with a parade of intense hurricanes in it's place.


Yeah I don't disagree, the MDR is no where even close to as anomalously warm as it was just a month ago, is it even warmer than 2005 anymore?


Yes.
https://i.imgur.com/5tpnYNW.png

https://i.imgur.com/jrVxIBo.png


Still hot but has come more inline with the top anomalously hot years

Image
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4231 Postby canebeard » Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:09 pm

Jr0d wrote:
bob rulz wrote:
I also think the data shows that this could've potentially been as high as 90mph at landfall, or perhaps 85mph. It seems like this has a real chance of receiving a higher landfall strength in post-season analysis.



It was close, but many see less that 100 mph or even less than cat 3 and think no big deal. The same concept applies to major storms, especially those on the 'left' generally weaker side. We have also had a few storms over the years that seemed to 'underperform' in terms of official intensity.

Regardless, a hurricane is a hurricane, even if 'only a cat 1'. There is a reason the Beaufort scale tops out at 'minimal hurricane '


As a rule of thumb (exceptions, of course--this is meteorology) when a hurricane makes landfall as an 80 mph, or 100 mph, or 115 mph storm ----the highest winds actually experienced at ground level will be GUSTS of the same number as the last advisory's stated sustained mph max. This rule of thumb is the general conclusion of 200+ landfall interceptions by four veteran hurricane chasers--who are the most likely people to have been in the most exposed possible locales in landfall territory. Summery: a !00 mph hurricane (sustained max, on NHC advisory) will produce maximum gusts at landfall, at ground level, of 100 mph, Caveat -- we are talking about at ground level- not elevated anemometer readings.
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ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4232 Postby jasons2k » Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:13 pm

Beryl did pretty much what I expected. I tried to warn as many people as I could about this going right of the track, even to the end. I don’t think I could have gotten any closer with my initial call into Corpus (when this was still a supposed ‘guarantee’ for Mexico by some folks) and then my revised call a few days ago into Sargent as a Cat 2. I did expect things to tighten-up a little earlier on yesterday but that dry air was persistent.

Looks like Beryl decoupled as it crossed into Montgomery County earlier. Things are slowly starting to wind-down here. Other than one section of leaning fence, I think all is OK.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4233 Postby Wampadawg » Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:14 pm

ATXAG95 wrote:It's pretty incredible. College Station and Bryan have wind damage all over the place. Thankfully no flooding.


The Icon walks into the Models Club nodding his head to all the big guys, :D :D
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4234 Postby longhorn2004 » Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:27 pm

jasons2k wrote:Beryl did pretty much what I expected. I tried to warn as many people as I could about this going right of the track, even to the end. I don’t think I could have gotten any closer with my initial call into Corpus (when this was still a supposed ‘guarantee’ for Mexico by some folks) and then my revised call a few days ago into Sargent as a Cat 2. I did expect things to tighten-up a little earlier on yesterday but that dry air was persistent.

Looks like Beryl decoupled as it crossed into Montgomery County earlier. Things are slowly starting to wind-down here. Other than one section of leaning fence, I think all is OK.


A typical summer high pressure sitting over Texas that would have sent Beryl into the Mexico mountain range shredder, would move to the east allowing Beryl to move north. Did you know that?.. :P
Last edited by longhorn2004 on Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4235 Postby Pipelines182 » Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:29 pm

Looks like the tornadoes have come to party, 9 warnings right now, one PDS warning, and at least two debris signatures showing on radar.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4236 Postby longhorn2004 » Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:34 pm

Pipelines182 wrote:Looks like the tornadoes have come to party, 9 warnings right now, one PDS warning, and at least two debris signatures showing on radar.


At least it will not be around long. I'm guessing the Jetstream is taking on a fast trip to the northeast.

Westside is the dry side. Dry in Austin and I-35 corridor.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4237 Postby DukeMu » Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:38 pm

ATXAG95 wrote:It's pretty incredible. College Station and Bryan have wind damage all over the place. Thankfully no flooding.


We had some 60-70 mph gusts. No question. Damage to trees, fences, and from projectiles were in play.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4238 Postby DukeMu » Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:40 pm

longhorn2004 wrote:
jasons2k wrote:Beryl did pretty much what I expected. I tried to warn as many people as I could about this going right of the track, even to the end. I don’t think I could have gotten any closer with my initial call into Corpus (when this was still a supposed ‘guarantee’ for Mexico by some folks) and then my revised call a few days ago into Sargent as a Cat 2. I did expect things to tighten-up a little earlier on yesterday but that dry air was persistent.

Looks like Beryl decoupled as it crossed into Montgomery County earlier. Things are slowly starting to wind-down here. Other than one section of leaning fence, I think all is OK.


A typical summer high pressure sitting over Texas that would have sent Beryl into the Mexico mountain range shredder, would move to the east allowing Beryl to move north. Did you know that?.. :P


This was closer to a late August set-up with a Bermuda high to the east, a 4 corners ridge to the west and trough in the middle.

Not your typical early July set-up, for certain.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4239 Postby Hurrilurker » Mon Jul 08, 2024 1:43 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Wow, for a Category 1 storm, there seems to have been quite some damage done. Rapidly intensifying systems really do pack a punch compared to weakening systems. I’m starting to wonder if this may have a billion dollar damage amount in the CONUS alone when it’s all said and done. Wishing the best to everyone affected by this storm in Texas.

Yeah, it was clearly strengthening very quickly and just ran out of time/water. The live videos I saw looked like a solid if not high-end Cat 2 near the eyewall. Texas is very lucky it didn't have another 12+ hours over water, that it crossed the Yucatan, and that there was a big pool of cold water + shear where it exited the peninsula, leading to it taking longer to ramp up. It was bad but could have been worse.
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4240 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Mon Jul 08, 2024 2:05 pm

My mom had to ride out the storm alone. She is safe for now but my family’s house took more damage than first thought…

EDIT: Got clarification from her, apparently she was including stuff in the yard as "damage" so it's not as bad as it looks.
Last edited by storm_in_a_teacup on Mon Jul 08, 2024 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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