ATL: JOYCE - Remnants - Discussion

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Tropical Storm 11L


UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 9.1

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 SEP 2024 Time : 201020 UTC
Lat : 18:32:06 N Lon : 43:42:55 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.1mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.3 3.7

[HurricaneAndre2008]

510
WTNT31 KNHC 272035
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112024
500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2024

...JOYCE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 44.0W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2015 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56

[Teban54]

[weeniepatrol]

[zzzh]

45kt storm

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/rSZmKFx.png
45kt storm

I guess the hurricane models weren’t wrong saying she’d try to rapidly develop a compact inner core.

[cycloneye]

No change.

AL, 11, 2024092800, , BEST, 0, 187N, 444W, 45, 1003, TS

[Travorum]

45kt, more like 60kt:

Platform: RCM-3
Acquisition Date: 2024-09-27 21:00:35 UTC
Storm Name: AL112024 / JOYCE
Storm ID: AL11
Storm Center Longitude: -43.632
Storm Center Latitude: 18.194
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 36.186
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 61.71
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): N/A
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): N/A
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 56.50
RMax (nmi): 29.00 - 34.00

[CrazyC83]

I'd put some weight into the SAR instrument, but there is some concern about it overestimating. Still, 50 kt seems reasonable, maybe 55 kt if that is a solid inner core on microwave.

[weeniepatrol]

And again. NHC refuses to up Isaac to C2 despite its gorgeous high-latitude presentation, now with Joyce, microwave showed a primitive eyewall and they hold it at 45 kt? What is going on? They didn't upgrade Ten-E to John until microwave showed an almost completely closed eyewall. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Am I the crazy one here? Genuinely losing my mind

[galaxy401]

And again. NHC refuses to up Isaac to C2 despite its gorgeous high-latitude presentation, now with Joyce, microwave showed a primitive eyewall and they hold it at 45 kt? What is going on? They didn't upgrade Ten-E to John until microwave showed an almost completely closed eyewall. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Am I the crazy one here? Genuinely losing my mind

For what it's worth, it looks like Isaac will be upgraded to a Cat 2 next advisory. Joyce is still at 45 kt though on the Best Track.

[al78]

The MDR curse still alive and well this season. Joyce struggling under shear in the tropical Atlantic whilst Isaac over-performs and strengthens to a cat 2 in the sub-tropics.

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like Joyce's is getting sheared with the convection pushed north leave the southern half of the circulation exposed.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/1Yv5cB4.gif

That image is from noon yesterday as there is an outage of GOES-16.

[Travorum]

SAR pass from a few hours ago, the southern side is indeed looking weak:

Platform: RCM-3
Acquisition Date: 2024-09-28 21:09:08 UTC
Storm Name: AL112024 / JOYCE
Storm ID: AL11
Storm Center Longitude: -46.304
Storm Center Latitude: 20.065
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 34.028
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 50.22
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): N/A
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): N/A
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 47.67
RMax (nmi): 112.00 - 114.00

[ChrisH-UK]

Joyce this morning looks like shear has made joyce pretty much naked with the convection been pushed to the north.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like Joyce may not be so dead, she has convection and shear seems to of ablated.

Source - https://col.st/q6q05