ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I think we'll see a 50 to 60mph Kirk in the morning when we wake up.

[Teban54]

First advisory has 105kts, I think that's the highest I've ever seen from NHC on the initial advisory

I believe the initial advisory on Lee last year forecast 120kts, but I think this is the second highest. Prior to these two the highest on the initial advisory was 100kts with Sam 2021 and Tomas 2010.

Kevin compiled a list of first advisory peaks a while ago (most recent version here after Ernesto). I have updated his list with 2024 storms:

(Updated Oct 2, 2024)

Here is the updated version for the first advisory peak intensity. Based on NHC advisories since 1998 (of which the 1998 - 2002 advisories only went to +72 hrs).

120 kt
2023 - Lee

105 kt
2024 - Kirk
2023 - Nigel

100 kt
2021 - Sam
2010 - Tomas

95 kt
2024 - Helene
2024 - Ernesto
2022 - Ian
2021 - Ida
2020 - Iota
2019 - Lorenzo
2012 - Isaac
2010 - Danielle
2005 - Philippe
2004 - Karl

90 kt
2024 - Beryl
2021 - Larry
2017 - Jose
2016 - Matthew
2009 - Bill
2007 - Dean

85 kt
2020 - Delta
2015 - Danny
2014 - Gonzalo
2011 - Katia
2010 - Earl
2010 - Igor
2006 - Helene
2005 - Wilma

80 kt
2024 - TD 13
2022 - Danielle
2020 - Teddy
2019 - Jerry
2017 - Irma
2017 - Maria
2016 - Gaston
2012 - Leslie
2005 - Rita
2004 - Earl
1999 - Emily

I may want to add the verified intensities at the specified time frames later, but can't do it now.

[Travorum]

First advisory has 105kts, I think that's the highest I've ever seen from NHC on the initial advisory

I believe the initial advisory on Lee last year forecast 120kts, but I think this is the second highest. Prior to these two the highest on the initial advisory was 100kts with Sam 2021 and Tomas 2010.

Kevin compiled a list of first advisory peaks a while ago (most recent version here after Ernesto).

Ah I was looking at Kevin's list from Lee, I forgot that Nigel was forecast to become a major before it developed such a broad core. I would be interested in seeing the verified intensities if you want to take the time to do that .

[aspen]

I believe the initial advisory on Lee last year forecast 120kts, but I think this is the second highest. Prior to these two the highest on the initial advisory was 100kts with Sam 2021 and Tomas 2010.

Kevin compiled a list of first advisory peaks a while ago (most recent version here after Ernesto).

Ah I was looking at Kevin's list from Lee, I forgot that Nigel was forecast to become a major before it developed such a broad core. I would be interested in seeing the verified intensities if you want to take the time to do that .

I think Teban or Kevin or someone else made a version of that list with actual peaks. The highest-end initial forecasts are a little mixed, with several under-performers like Nigel ‘23 and Tomas ‘10.

The NHC’s slow intensification forecast for the next few days seems reasonable. The hurricane models show it kind of struggling to build a solid inner core early on, perhaps a bit of shear sneaking its way in. The HWRF and HAFS-A/B still blow it up to a Cat 4 in the day 4-5 range.

[Category5Kaiju]

I wonder if we 're going to get some Saildrone footage of this system. Iirc, they were deployed in Sam and Fiona as well, and I'm not exactly sure why, but NOAA seems to like to deploy those in powerful, open-ocean hurricanes rather than ones closer to home

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Would be Major Hurricane Kirk is going to be quite the ACE producer.

Reminds me a lot of Lee/Sam.

[Kazmit]

This is gonna be a big boy. A Sam copycat but further east.

[CrazyC83]

Is there any chance this could not make the early turn, hence become a land threat?

[cycloneye]

Is there any chance this could not make the early turn, hence become a land threat?

The NAO looks to not be too positive and is in negative right now and that is why the recurve.

[Category5Kaiju]

Is there any chance this could not make the early turn, hence become a land threat?

Models seem to overwhelmingly favor the OTS route, so I’d say highly likely no, thankfully. We get to track this giant from afar.

The system behind it though is a different story (see more about that in that system’s thread).

[zal0phus]

This is gonna be a big boy. A Sam copycat but further east.

https://i.ibb.co/2ySHRCP/gfs-ir-eatl-20.png

Looks almost like Lorenzo

[aspen]

This is gonna be a big boy. A Sam copycat but further east.

https://i.ibb.co/2ySHRCP/gfs-ir-eatl-20.png

I doubt it’ll get close to Sam’s ACE because it being further west and over slightly cooler waters will limit its ceiling, but this is gearing up to easily be a 35-40+ ACE major. And an OTS one too, so it’ll be fun to track and not threaten any land.

Wonder if we’ll get a flight or two into it like Lorenzo. Hopefully they don’t miss its peak like Sam (I don’t think we ever got an explanation for why that morning flight was cancelled, which would’ve caught Sam’s peak).

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Is there any chance this could not make the early turn, hence become a land threat?

ICON gets closer to Bermuda but I’m not seeing anything near CONUS.

[cycloneye]

Remains as TD on the 00z best track.

AL, 12, 2024093000, , BEST, 0, 139N, 328W, 30, 1006, TD

[zzzh]

Center is a bit elongated, max wind 30kt. Should be a TS very soon.

[hipshot]

This is gonna be a big boy. A Sam copycat but further east.

https://i.ibb.co/2ySHRCP/gfs-ir-eatl-20.png

Hell, that already looks like a hurricane with an eye, if that is 12.

[SconnieCane]

This is gonna be a big boy. A Sam copycat but further east.

https://i.ibb.co/2ySHRCP/gfs-ir-eatl-20.png

Hell, that already looks like a hurricane with an eye, if that is 12.

That's GFS simulated IR valid in 115 hours.

[cheezyWXguy]

This is gonna be a big boy. A Sam copycat but further east.

https://i.ibb.co/2ySHRCP/gfs-ir-eatl-20.png

Hell, that already looks like a hurricane with an eye, if that is 12.

That’s a model depiction of what it will look like in a couple of days, not right now

[kevin]

ASCAT-B found some 30 - 35 kt barbs ~9 hours ago. Meanwhile raw T# have gone up to 3.4 (995mb/53kt) with the CI# of 2.8 supporting an intensity of 1002mb/41kt. AiDT also supports 41 kt and D-PRINT 36 kt. All combined with the current IR improvements I expect an upgrade to 35 kt either at the upcoming advisory or the one afterwards.

[tulum07]

What happened to the satellite?