ATL: LESLIE - Hurricane - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Is organizing despite the shear from Kirk.

[cycloneye]

90% / 90%

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred
miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next
day or two while it moves slowly westward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2024100118, , BEST, 0, 106N, 259W, 30, 1007, LO

[hipshot]

AL, 91, 2024100118, , BEST, 0, 106N, 259W, 30, 1007, LO

This seems very far west for this level of development, I have been hanging around here as long as some but I don't recall one
this close to Africa.

[weeniepatrol]

AL, 91, 2024100118, , BEST, 0, 106N, 259W, 30, 1007, LO

This seems very far west for this level of development, I have been hanging around here as long as some but I don't recall one
this close to Africa.

Do you mean in general or for this time of year? Many systems have formed that far out, Fred 2015, Irma 2017, Florence 2018 etc. If you mean this time of year, then yeah it's getting a bit late for development so far east. We did have TS Nadine form at almost the exact current location of 91L in 2018, on 9 October.

[hipshot]

AL, 91, 2024100118, , BEST, 0, 106N, 259W, 30, 1007, LO

This seems very far west for this level of development, I have been hanging around here as long as some but I don't recall one
this close to Africa.

Do you mean in general or for this time of year? Many systems have formed that far out, Fred 2015, Irma 2017, Florence 2018 etc. If you mean this time of year, then yeah it's getting a bit late for development so far east. We did have TS Nadine form at almost the exact current location of 91L in 2018, on 9 October.

Nope, just from memory. It just seemed pretty close to Africa and I couldn't remember many forming that close. But...my memory
ain't what it used to be.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I think this will be renumbered soon.

[weeniepatrol]

This seems very far west for this level of development, I have been hanging around here as long as some but I don't recall one
this close to Africa.

Do you mean in general or for this time of year? Many systems have formed that far out, Fred 2015, Irma 2017, Florence 2018 etc. If you mean this time of year, then yeah it's getting a bit late for development so far east. We did have TS Nadine form at almost the exact current location of 91L in 2018, on 9 October.

Nope, just from memory. It just seemed pretty close to Africa and I couldn't remember many forming that close. But...my memory
ain't what it used to be.

Yeah; for October it is pretty far east, but it's def not unprecedented.

[cycloneye]

8 PM.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with an area of
low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development of this system, and a tropical depression is
expected to form during the next day or two while it moves slowly
westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

No TD yet.

AL, 91, 2024100200, , BEST, 0, 107N, 267W, 30, 1007, LO

[HurricaneEnzo]

Huge Kirk still shredding little 91L to death. I'm curious to see if it can hold on and eventually become our next system. Could be a 90 percenter that doesn't make it

Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk

[cycloneye]

Still at 90% at 8 AM.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for further development of this system, and a
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so
while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

THe only change in the 12z best track is the pressure that is down to 1006 mbs.

AL, 91, 2024100212, , BEST, 0, 106N, 288W, 30, 1006, LO

[Subtrop]

AL, 13, 2024100212, , BEST, 0, 106N, 288W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 030, TRANSITIONED, alD12024 to al132024,

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

The famous banner.

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Thirteen, located over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic, at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).

[aspen]

Really impressive that TCG was able to occur despite getting blasted by Kirk’s outflow. Wonder what the first NHC forecast will look like.

[cycloneye]

Forecast from first advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 10.6N 29.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 10.5N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 10.2N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 10.2N 31.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 10.4N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 11.0N 34.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 11.7N 35.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 13.5N 38.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 41.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

[aspen]

Forecast from first advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 10.6N 29.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 10.5N 29.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 10.2N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 10.2N 31.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 10.4N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 11.0N 34.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 11.7N 35.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 13.5N 38.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 41.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

Much higher than I thought. Since the hurricane models show Kirk-induced shear for much of the forecast period, I was expecting TS intensity for at least 3-4 days with a peak of 60-70 kt at Day 5.

[TallyTracker]

If this pans out and Thirteen becomes a hurricane, the season will be at least at 12/8/2-3. Definitely quality over quantity this year in terms of storms. Also hopefully an out-to-sea ACE producer.