ATL: ERIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 97, 2025080912, , BEST, 0, 101N, 170W, 25, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 016, SPAWNINVEST, al762025 to al972025,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal972025.dat

[Hurricane2022]

So here we are. This is going to be a very long thread. I hope this stay away from landmasses.

[ScottNAtlanta]

That was quicker than I thought it would be. Will be nice to have the extra hurricane models on this now.

[TomballEd]

So here we are. This is going to be a very long thread. I hope this stay away from landmasses.

My thoughts posted in the mandarin thread- looking at globals and ensembles, while there is probably better than a 50% chance this recurves before land, there is a real chance C. Florida to Nova Scotia of direct impacts. Looking good although battling some shear from the east. Note on ensembles there are outliers that could affect the NE Caribbean and Bahamas. I expect the models to shift one way or another in the next 10 days.

[Category5Kaiju]

So here we are. This is going to be a very long thread. I hope this stay away from landmasses.

My thoughts posted in the mandarin thread- looking at globals and ensembles, while there is probably better than a 50% chance this recurves before land, there is a real chance C. Florida to Nova Scotia of direct impacts. Looking good although battling some shear from the east. Note on ensembles there are outliers that could affect the NE Caribbean and Bahamas. I expect the models to shift one way or another in the next 10 days.

https://i.imgur.com/ZjFKU1P.gif

https://i.imgur.com/Gn6dZzJ.png

Is it just me, or does there seem to be a fairly big discrepancy between where the NHC posted the wave's location currently (SW of the Cape Verde Islands at roughly 11 degrees N) and the ensembles suggesting that it will make a sharp NW turn near or over the Cape Verde islands?

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like they tagged it further north than the latest GFS? So potentially models will adjust and chances of an OTS are increasing?

[convergencezone2]

The Gulf should be safe at this point due to the weak bermuda high, as wxman pointed out. However, I still wouldn't rule out a mid to upper east coast threat at this time depending of course on the speed of development. If we can get lucky with this one, then perhaps we can make it to September without any landfall threats. Of course that's just speculation at this point.

[cycloneye]

It will depend how the system evolves in terms of intensity and movement that this thread gets close or surpasses the 622 pages that the Irma thread had. But the main thing is to have good discussions and analisis of all the factors.

[MarioProtVI]

This will likely be our first hurricane and possibly major if models prove right..

[TampaWxLurker]

Here to get in on the first page of what I expect to be a long thread.

[Nimbus]

The Gulf should be safe at this point due to the weak bermuda high, as wxman pointed out. However, I still wouldn't rule out a mid to upper east coast threat at this time depending of course on the speed of development. If we can get lucky with this one, then perhaps we can make it to September without any landfall threats. Of course that's just speculation at this point.

06Z GFS ridging at 200 hours has almost identical ridging as last Fridays run that took 97L through the straits of Florida into the gulf as a major Hurricane. Neither run may have much validity beyond 200 hours. 06z GFS nailed the initialization off Africa though in the 24 hour forecast range.

[StormWeather]

Here to put in my two cents on the beginning of a likely soon to be long thread about this system.

I’m thinking right now this could be an East Coast grazer. I mean we are due in pretty sure for an East Coast strike from a MH so I wouldn’t be surprised to this do it.

[AutoPenalti]

The Gulf should be safe at this point due to the weak bermuda high, as wxman pointed out. However, I still wouldn't rule out a mid to upper east coast threat at this time depending of course on the speed of development. If we can get lucky with this one, then perhaps we can make it to September without any landfall threats. Of course that's just speculation at this point.

06Z GFS ridging at 200 hours has almost identical ridging as last Fridays run that took 97L through the straits of Florida into the gulf as a major Hurricane. Neither run may have much validity beyond 200 hours. 06z GFS nailed the initialization off Africa though in the 24 hour forecast range.

I think the difference here now though is that timing begins to close in and therefore accuracy begins to increase, but again lots of variables in play.

[Beef Stew]

I have to admit I’m skeptical of the quick consolidation that the GFS is modeling, but at the same time 97L does already have more rotation than I thought it would at this point.

[StarmanHDB]

Here's to hoping 97L develops quickly so as it stays away from any landmasses.

[TomballEd]

Simple statistical model predicts little change in intensity the first day and then it starts getting its act together. Shear drops and SSTs increase. Extrapolating the secret lat/long points from the medium steering, this would be approaching Cat 3 strength in the vicinity of the NE Caribbean. Medium steering model uses GFS mid level flow and is a rather simple track model. Intensity model is simple but I use it to see the likelihood an invest develops. If the storms strength stays the same or increases very slowly, development is rare. This only shows minimal strengthening the first day but after that it looks to intensify at a steady rate.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The Gulf should be safe at this point due to the weak bermuda high, as wxman pointed out. However, I still wouldn't rule out a mid to upper east coast threat at this time depending of course on the speed of development. If we can get lucky with this one, then perhaps we can make it to September without any landfall threats. Of course that's just speculation at this point.

06Z GFS ridging at 200 hours has almost identical ridging as last Fridays run that took 97L through the straits of Florida into the gulf as a major Hurricane. Neither run may have much validity beyond 200 hours. 06z GFS nailed the initialization off Africa though in the 24 hour forecast range.

I think the difference here now though is that timing begins to close in and therefore accuracy begins to increase, but again lots of variables in play.

The recurve (if it were to happen), would be 170+ hours out. Which is still a week from now. A lot can still change with the steering pattern.

[Fancy1002]

Finally, now we should start getting the intensity runs starting later today or tonight.

[Michele B]

I haven't been following tropical systems as closely this year due to MOVING AWAY from FL and the threats, but I'm still curious, since I lived the majority of my life in FL and did a lot of hurricane prognosticating through the years.

My question is: are there new computer models being used? I thought I heard there is one utilizing AI to help predict path/strength, etc. Is there any truth to that and if so, where do those things reside?

Thanks all, for all you do.

P.S. We still do have a property in FL at present, so this year's storms may still affect us, and I will be watching with a somewhat interested eye. Just won't be into the whole "prep and wait" mode.

It feels good!

[Orlandocane]

North Central Florida here, I’m having Irma flashbacks. Never really comment much, but I am going to this season.


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