ATL: FERNAND - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[zzzh]

AL, 90, 2025082112, , BEST, 0, 171N, 555W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, SPAWNINVEST, al792025 to al992025, SPAWNINVEST, al792025 to al902025,

[StormWeather]

AL, 90, 2025082112, , BEST, 0, 171N, 555W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, SPAWNINVEST, al792025 to al992025, SPAWNINVEST, al792025 to al902025,

At last! Now we can get the hurricane models running!

[cycloneye]

[Kingarabian]

Looking good

[TampaWxLurker]

Finally!

[cycloneye]

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with
a tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 90, 2025082118, , BEST, 0, 175N, 565W, 25, 1010, DB

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic (AL90):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a
tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the
northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium..60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 90, 2025082200, , BEST, 0, 177N, 575W, 25, 1010, DB

[chaser1]

70/80?? Did someone pull the 'ol switcheroo on 90L & 99L map labels

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Near the Leeward Islands (AL90):
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a
tropical wave is located a couple hundred miles east-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves
northwestward and then northward, in between the Lesser Antilles and
Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high..70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[HurricaneRyan]

Curious to see what happens with this.

[cycloneye]

Near the Leeward Islands (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located about a hundred miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,
and a tropical depression or tropical storm is very likely to form
this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward, in
between the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[ChrisH-UK]

90L this morning still looks stretched out and unorganised.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

This deserves a PTC designation. There could be TS Watches due in the next 12 hours.

[WeatherBoy2000]

This deserves a PTC designation. There could be TS Watches due in the next 12 hours.

Going by Satellite appearance, it's not particular close to forming, and it's already north of the Antilles heading into the subtropics. No need for the PTC designation or watches imo.

[chris_fit]

This deserves a PTC designation. There could be TS Watches due in the next 12 hours.

Going by Satellite appearance, it's not particular close to forming, and it's already north of the Antilles heading into the subtropics. No need for the PTC designation or watches imo.

Agree - looks pretty awful

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

This deserves a PTC designation. There could be TS Watches due in the next 12 hours.

Going by Satellite appearance, it's not particular close to forming, and it's already north of the Antilles heading into the subtropics. No need for the PTC designation or watches imo.

Not sure why the Antilles or its current appearance are relevant? The PTC designation is about the potential of a system. Models show tropical storm force winds over Bermuda in the next 50 hours. If this system was approaching Florida it would be a PTC so that detailed forecasts and warnings could be issued.

[TomballEd]

This deserves a PTC designation. There could be TS Watches due in the next 12 hours.

Going by Satellite appearance, it's not particular close to forming, and it's already north of the Antilles heading into the subtropics. No need for the PTC designation or watches imo.

Not sure why the Antilles or its current appearance are relevant? The PTC designation is about the potential of a system. Models show tropical storm force winds over Bermuda in the next 50 hours. If this system was approaching Florida it would be a PTC so that detailed forecasts and warnings could be issued.

PTC exists solely to allow NHC to issues watches/warnings if land is threatened. If NHC felt the need for a watch for Bermuda, they would start a PTC. Euro ensembles are missing E, the majority of the GFS ensembles miss East.