NATL: JERRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2025100506, , BEST, 0, 80N, 259W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 210, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal952025.dat

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form this week as the system moves quickly across the
central tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward
Islands by the latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track moves it west at 275 degrees.

AL, 95, 2025100512, , BEST, 0, 81N, 274W, 30, 1010, DB,

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

An October Cape Verde hurricane can be a fearsome thing and this one has low enough latitude that the whole basin should be paying attention.

[cycloneye]

A good circulation.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Should the GFS pan out, looks like we could have a record or, at least close, for the lowest number of named storms for an above-average ACE season

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Should the GFS pan out, looks like we could have a record or, at least close, for the lowest number of named storms for an above-average ACE season

1999 had just 12 NS but was hyperactive in terms of ACE, a true "quality over quantity" season in every sense of the word (177 ACE, 5 C4). Probably won't get to that point (the September lull was detrimental in that regard) but a favorable ENSO state + warm Caribbean should provide ample opportunity for an active final 2 months of the season.

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

An October Cape Verde hurricane can be a fearsome thing and this one has low enough latitude that the whole basin should be paying attention.

Starting to organize and its moving due west, I wonder where the models will send this once its named?

[msbee]

Here I go , in the cone again!

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form this week as it moves quickly across the central tropical
Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward Islands by the latter
part of this week. Interests there should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Here I go , in the cone again!

Yeah. Let's see if it deviates and not affect any of the Leeward islands.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Here I go , in the cone again!

Still lots of uncertainty but it very much could be coming your way!

[cycloneye]

MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS, Have to watch it in Bermuda.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 95, 2025100518, , BEST, 0, 84N, 297W, 30, 1010, DB

[cycloneye]

Very few major hurricanes move thru PR and the islands on October and November.

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1974903861950452032

[Cachondo23]

Here I go , in the cone again!

Remember, not a cone track. It’s just a formation cone area.

[ljmac75]

I'm hoping for another out-to-sea cat 5 that starts rapidly weakening and then misses Bermuda.

[Zonacane]

The best looking invest of the season tracking into the most favorable MDR environment of the season. Really hoping whatever nonsense happens near the Bahamas kicks this one away from the islands.