NATL: MELISSA - Advisories

[kevin]

First advisory for Melissa.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

...THE 13TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 71.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern peninsula of Haiti
from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince. The
government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the island.




Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Satellite images, regional Caribbean radar data, and surface
observations indicate that invest 98L has developed a well-defined
center and organized deep convection to be designated a tropical
cyclone. A ship report that recently passed near the center of the
system reported a minimum pressure of about 1003 mb. Satellite
imagery shows the system is asymmetric, with the low-level center
near the western edge of the central dense overcast. The initial
intensity is set at 45 kt, based on a blend of the latest satellite
intensity estimates, marking the formation of Tropical Storm
Melissa. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this afternoon, and their data should provide
a better assessment of Melissa's strength and structure.

The system was moving very quickly westward over the past several
days, but it has slowed down significantly this morning, which has
likely helped Melissa form. The initial motion is estimated to be
280/12 kt. Melissa should continue to slow down and gradually turn
to the northwest and then north during the next couple of days
toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This motion will likely
take the storm very near the southwestern tip of Haiti and Jamaica
by Thursday. After that time, the guidance diverges significantly
with some models like the GFS and HWRF showing a motion to the
northeast into the weakness, while the other solutions show a stall
or a westward drift on the south side of a building ridge. An
examination of the GFS, ECMWF, and Google DeepMind ensemble suites
suggest that the majority of the members show Melissa not moving
into the weakness and remaining in the Caribbean Sea throughout the
week and into the weekend. The NHC official track forecast lies
between the Google DeepMind ensemble mean track and the correct
consensus aid, HCCA.

Melissa is expected to be over the very warm waters of the
Caribbean, but the models suggest that vertical wind shear will be
moderate with some dry air in the vicinity of the storm during the
next few days. Based on these mixed signals, the strengthening
trend is expected to be slow and steady, not rapid. However, the
future intensity of Melissa is linked to the track and since that is
quite uncertain beyond a couple of days, the strength of the storm
is also quite uncertain. The NHC intensity forecast is in best
agreement with the HCCA model.

Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
significant flash flooding and the danger of landslides to portions
of Haiti and the Dominican Republic through the weekend.

2. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern coast and
Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued
for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed by Thursday.

3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity
forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 14.3N 71.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 14.4N 72.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 14.8N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.3N 74.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 15.7N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 16.1N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 16.5N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 16.9N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 17.2N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING MELISSA..
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD HISPANIOLA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 72.6W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 73.0W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES




Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Satellite data indicate that Melissa is struggling in strong shear,
which has been the theme for many systems over the deep tropics this
year. The low-level center of the storm is exposed to the west of
the main area of thunderstorms. Air Force Hurricane Hunters have
been investigating the system this afternoon and found that the
minimum pressure is around 1003 mb. Based on their observations,
ASCAT passes, and Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is held at
45 kt. Melissa's wind field is also quite asymmetric, with most of
the tropical-storm-force winds occurring on the system's east side.
Some of the outermost northern bands are approaching Hispaniola, and
these heavy rains are expected to spread across that island during
the next couple of days.

Melissa is a little south of the previous track and it continues to
move westward at about 13 kt. There has been no change to the track
forecast scenario, which remains complicated. Over the next couple
of days, there is fair confidence that Melissa should slow down and
gradually turn to the northwest or north and approach Haiti and
Jamaica late this week. The motion after that appears to be linked
to how strong and vertically aligned the system gets, and
that is when the models diverge. If Melissa organizes like the GFS
predicts, it could turn northeastward into the weakness in the
ridge and move over Hispaniola. Conversely, if Melissa remains
sheared and lopsided, it will likely stall and eventually drift
westward as a ridge builds north of it. Given the expected
continued shear, the NHC track forecast leans toward the latter
scenario. This prediction is a little left of the previous forecast
and remains a blend of the latest Google DeepMind ensemble mean,
the corrected consensus aid HCCA, and simple consensus TVCA.

Although the ocean is very warm, the models suggest that the
vertical wind shear could persist over Melissa during the next few
days. In addition, there is also some dry air in the storm's
vicinity. Based on these mixed signals, the strengthening trend is
expected to be slow. In fact, the new guidance supports nudging the
short term intensity down a bit. If Melissa remains over the
Caribbean late this week and over the weekend, the upper-level winds
could become more conducive for more significant strengthening.
The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA model.

Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
significant flash flooding and the danger of landslides to portions
of Haiti and the Dominican Republic through the weekend.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by Thursday.

3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity
forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 14.2N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 14.5N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 15.0N 74.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 15.5N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 16.1N 75.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 16.5N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 16.9N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 17.3N 75.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 17.5N 75.2W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 73.4W
ABOUT 310 MI...505 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 74.0W
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES




Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Melissa continues to be under the influence of significant westerly
vertical wind shear. The center of the storm appears to be exposed
to the west of a cluster of very deep convection, and overall the
system is not very well organized with poorly-defined banding
features. The advisory intensity is held at 45 kt in agreement
with a Dvorak classification from TAFB, though objective intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS are somewhat lower. An Air Force Reserve
Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
tropical cyclone in a few hours and should provide a good intensity
estimate. Melissa remains an asymmetric storm with most of the
strong winds over the northeastern and eastern portions of the
circulation.

The system continues to move a little southwest of the previous
track with an initial motion estimate of 270/11 kt. The track
forecast for the next several days remains quite challenging.
Melissa is likely to remain in a region of weak steering currents
for most of this week. Once again, the GFS model looks like an
outlier with a track across Hispaniola by this weekend and most of
the other guidance much farther south and west. The future track
depends, among other things, on how strong and vertically deep
Melissa will become while it is over the Caribbean, and how much a
mid-level trough digs along the U.S. east coast during the next
5 days. A stronger tropical cyclone would likely move more
northward or northeastward than a weak system would. The new
official forecast is shifted somewhat west of the previous one and
is in good agreement with the dynamical model consensus and the FSU
Superensemble solution. The latest Google DeepMind ensemble mean is
just a little to the left of the official forecast.

Water vapor imagery continues to show upper-level westerlies ahead
of Melissa, and the shear is not likely to decrease much over the
next few days. The SHIPS guidance using the large-scale predictors
from the ECMWF model indicates some relaxation of the shear in 3-5
days. The official intensity forecast, like the previous one,
shows strengthening into a hurricane by the latter part of the
forecast period. This is in good agreement with the LGEM guidance.
However it should be noted that this is a low-confidence intensity
forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend,
bringing a risk of significant flash flooding and landslides.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by Thursday.

3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity
forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 14.2N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 14.6N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 15.1N 75.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 15.6N 75.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 15.9N 75.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 16.3N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 16.9N 75.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 17.5N 76.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 17.6N 76.2W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

...MELISSA RE-FORMS TO THE NORTHEAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 73.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES




Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
extremely useful in showing that the center of Melissa has
re-formed to the northeast of the previous center. Earlier
scatterometer data had already shown an elongated circulation, and
the very deep convection combined with the moderate westerly shear
has caused the re-formation. The initial intensity is kept at 45
kt, a compromise between somewhat lower aircraft winds but also
lower central pressure, now at 1000 mb.

The initial motion is estimated, with low confidence, to be 295/6.
Melissa is forecast to move very slowly to the northwest and
north-northwest during the next few days into a weakness by an
approaching mid-latitude trough. There continues to be a very
large uncertainty on whether the storm would turn more into the
weakness and threaten Haiti or Cuba, or whether it would turn
more westward to the south of Jamaica as a ridge rebuilds over the
Bahamas, with reliable models in either camp. This appears to be
somewhat tied to the storm's structure, with the less vertically
coherent model solutions generally ending up on the western side of
the track envelope this weekend, and stronger initial storm
representations on the northeastern side. With such a distinct
track bifurcation noted in the guidance (excluding the consensus
aids) and dependence on structure, this should be considered an
extremely uncertain forecast, and significant changes could be
required. The model trends have been favoring the more westward
solutions recently, and the official forecast is nudged in that
direction at long range.

Melissa is likely to be encountering moderate wind shear for the
next few days, counteracted by the very warm and moist conditions
in the Caribbean Sea. This pattern favors slow intensification
through that time. At long range, some relaxation of this shear is
anticipated with the more equatorward storm solutions showing the
most conducive environment. The new NHC wind speed prediction
is much higher than the last one by day 5, but still lower than the
model consensus due to continuity constraints. While there is
still a large forecast intensity uncertainty, the chances of a major
hurricane increase if this forecast were to trend farther southwest
at long range, similar to many of the recent regional hurricane
model forecasts.


Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend,
bringing a risk of significant flash flooding and landslides.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by Thursday.

3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity
forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 14.3N 73.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 14.7N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 15.2N 74.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 15.6N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 16.0N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 16.3N 75.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 16.7N 75.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 17.0N 76.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 17.0N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

...RECON FINDS MELISSA MOVING VERY SLOWLY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 73.5W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

...MELISSA DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 73.6W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES




Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

While Melissa continues to produce bursting convection on satellite
imagery, with very cold cloud tops down to -95C, there is little
evidence these convective bands are wrapping around the center.
West-northwesterly shear of 20 to 25 kt is currently preventing the
low-level and mid-level circulation centers from aligning. This
downshear tilt with height has also been observed by the latest Air
Force Reconnaissance mission, which reported significant winds at
the surface in their most recent 850 mb center drop. The initial
intensity for this advisory is held at 45 kt, taking a blend of
recon observations which had a peak wind of 52 kt at 850 mb, and
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, ADT, and D-MINT. The wind
field of Melissa also remains very asymmetric, as evidence of a
recent 1040z RCM-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar pass showing the bulk of
tropical-storm-force winds east of the center.

The tropical storm has slowed down to a crawl this morning, with the
estimated motion at 300/2 kt. The track forecast remains challenging
today, and strongly related to the storm's structure in the
short-term. For the next 12-24 hours, Melissa is forecast to move
very slowly to the northwest as it attempts to move into a weakness
produced by an broad upper-level trough centered over the Bahamas.
Whether or not it turns more rightward into this weakness is related
to the vertical depth the various model guidance is depicting. The
06z GFS run, which is the model that has been on the right side of
the guidance envelope for days, shows a more vertically coherent
system over the next 24-48 hours, and causes Melissa to abruptly
turn northeastward over the next 48 hours. While this appears to be
an outlier solution, the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) also
shows this northeastward motion, and a significant fraction of its
ensemble members show the Melissa making landfall on the Island of
Hispaniola. However, the remainder of the track guidance, including
the ECMWF and its ensemble mean, suggest that Melissa will remain
misaligned and move more slowly north-northwest over the next couple
of days. The NHC track solution slightly favors the latter
scenarios, lying just east of the ECMWF mean, out of respect of the
reliable GDMI aid. After about 60 h, mid-level ridging begins to
build back in to the north, and most of the guidance responds by
showing a sharp turn westward, albeit still at a snail's pace. The
overall track guidance, GFS and GDMI excluded, has shifted left this
cycle beyond 72 h, and the NHC track was shifted in that direction,
but not as far south and west as the HAFS-A/B regional models. It
goes without saying, this is a very challenging track forecast.

The intensity forecast has its own share of challenges. At least in
the short-term, vertical wind shear is expected to persist between
20 to 30 kt, and will likely prevent Melissa from becoming fully
aligned and taking advantage over the very warm 30-31C sea surface
temperatures. After about 48 hours, the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS
guidance shows the shear decreasing gradually, but the timing on
when the system becomes more vertically coherent varies among both
the global and hurricane-regional model guidance. Most of the
guidance shows significant or even rapid intensification in days
3-5, and the NHC intensity forecast was raised once again during
this time frame, but not as high as the HCCA or hurricane-regional
models due to continuity constraints to the previous forecast. The
day 5 forecast now shows Melissa becoming a major hurricane, and
further upward adjustments may be necessary in subsequent cycles.
The intensity forecast is also more uncertain than usual, in large
part related to the track uncertainty.

Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend,
bringing a risk of significant flash flooding and landslides.

2. Hurricane conditions are possible in the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. A Tropical Storm
Watch is in effect for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and
property should be completed by Thursday.

3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity
forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 14.4N 73.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 14.8N 73.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 15.2N 74.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 15.6N 74.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 16.0N 74.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 16.3N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 16.5N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 16.6N 75.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 16.4N 77.4W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

...MELISSA REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND JOGGING SLOWLY WESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 74.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

...MELISSA MEANDERING IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 74.3W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES




Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Like yesterday, Melissa's structure has come unglued this
afternoon, with the low-level circulation becoming exposed to
the west of the bursting deep convection. While that convection
continues to have very cold cloud tops, it lacks much organization,
remaining parked down-shear of the storm with 20-30 kt of
west-northwesterly shear undercutting the outflow layer. This
disjointed structure is nicely exhibited on an 1825 UTC AMSR2 pass.
While the objective intensity estimates in general are a little
higher than this morning, the subjective Dvorak estimates are lower,
and given the disjointed structure of Melissa, it favors holding the
intensity at 45 kt this advisory. Another Air Force Reserve and the
first NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission will be in the storm this
evening to provide more structural information.

Melissa has taken a short-term jog westward as it became exposed,
but now appears to be resuming a very slow west-northwestward motion
at 290/2 kt. The track reasoning remains similar to the previous
forecast over the next 2-3 days, with the forecast storm structure
likely to have a significant role in the future track. Dynamical
models that show the storm becoming more vertically aligned and deep
(GFS, HWRF) show Melissa turning north or northeastward due to
westerly deep-layer steering into a weakness induced by a broad
upper-level trough located over the Bahamas. However, models that
show Melissa remaining more shallow and misaligned (ECMWF, HAFS-A/B)
maintain a northwestward or north-northwestward component of
motion. Compared to this morning, the track guidance has shifted
slower and farther west, possibly due to the farther west initial
position. The NHC track has been shifted westward and is also a
little southward after 60 h, but remains farther north and east of
the ECMWF and HAFS models this cycle, and is roughly in between the
HFIP consensus approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean
(GDMI). This track forecast favors the models that keep Melissa weak
and less prone to the deep-layer steering over the next 24-48 hours.
However, this remains a low confidence track forecast other than
Melissa maintaining a slow motion for the majority of the period.

The current vortex misalignment of Melissa is a significant
impediment to short-term intensification, and the vertical wind
shear is expected to maintain this tilted structure over the next
24-36 hours, although I can't preclude any center reformations
down-shear, like what occurred last night. After this period, the
ECWMF-SHIPS guidance now indicates the ongoing westerly shear will
decrease to 10-15 knots, and the storm remains over very warm
sea-surface temperatures and high oceanic heat content. The
hurricane-regional models have all responded by showing significant
intensification after the vortex becomes vertically aligned,
sometime in the 60-96 h period, though timing when this may occur is
challenging. The intensity guidance is once again higher than the
previous cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast was raised once
again, showing Melissa becoming a hurricane in 72 h, rapidly
intensifying into a major hurricane by 96 h, with additional
intensification likely thereafter. This forecast is in the best
agreement with the HCCA intensity aid, but it is worth noting it's
under the latest HAFS-A/B and HMON forecasts. Unfortunately, it is
becoming increasingly likely that Melissa will become a large and
dangerous hurricane by the end of the forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Melissa is forecast to meander over the central Caribbean Sea and
could potentially become a major hurricane by early next week.
Interests in Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and the Dominican Republic are
urged to continue monitoring the latest forecasts.

2. Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged period of
strong winds, possibly lasting for a day or more, is increasing for
Jamaica and the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong
winds could begin in these areas as early as late Thursday or
Friday and continue increasing over the weekend.

3. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend,
bringing a risk of significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 14.4N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 14.6N 74.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 14.9N 74.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 15.2N 74.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 15.6N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 16.1N 75.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 16.3N 75.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 16.2N 76.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 16.0N 78.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

...MELISSA MOVING VERY SLOWLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 74.5W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

...MELISSA EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 74.6W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES




Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations and
satellite imagery indicate that Melissa remains a sheared tropical
cyclone, With The low-level center of the storm situated to the
west and northwest of the main areas of thunderstorms. The
convection continue to be very deep with cloud tops to -80 deg C or
colder. There is some evidence of a convective banding feature over
the southern portion of the circulation, but the overall cloud
pattern is not well organized. Upper-level outflow continues to be
restricted to the west of the storm due to the west-northwesterly
shear. Tail Doppler data from the NOAA aircraft show a
significant eastward tilt of the vortex with height. Observations
from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the central pressure is not
falling at this time, and that the maximum winds remain near 45 kt.
This is also supported by objective satellite-derived intensity
estimates from UW-CIMSS.

Center fixes from the aircraft show that Melissa is still moving
very slowly, at around 270/2 kt. In the short term, the cyclone is
expected to turn northwestward to northward in a weakness in the
mid-level ridge. In 48 hours or so, a weak ridge is expected to
build to the north of Melissa which should induce a westward turn.
Around the end of the forecast period, the ridge is expected to
weaken and the system is predicted to turn to the right. The
official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and
lies between the latest HCCA corrected consensus and the simple
dynamical model consensus. This is somewhat west of the latest
Google DeepMind ensemble mean forecast. There continues to be a
large spread in the guidance models, indicating less than normal
confidence in the track forecast, especially around day 5.

Melissa is likely to continue to be influenced by significant
westerly vertical wind shear during the next day or two, so only
slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Later in
the forecast period, the global models show a relaxation of the
shear. This, along with the very high oceanic heat content over
the area, could result in significant strengthening. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and very close
to the HCCA and FSU Superensemble guidance.


Key Messages:

1. Melissa is forecast to meander over the central Caribbean Sea and
could potentially become a major hurricane by late this weekend or
early next week. Interests in Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and the
Dominican Republic are urged to continue monitoring the latest
forecasts.

2. Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged period of
strong winds, possibly lasting for a day or more, is increasing for
Jamaica and the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong
winds could begin in these areas as early as late Thursday or
Friday and continue increasing over the weekend.

3. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend,
bringing a risk of significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 14.3N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 14.7N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 15.0N 75.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.3N 75.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 15.7N 75.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 16.0N 75.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 16.1N 76.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 16.0N 77.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 16.5N 78.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...MELISSA CRAWLING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING TO
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 74.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[AJC3]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...MELISSA CRAWLING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING TO
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 74.9W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES




Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Melissa continues to struggle in strong westerly vertical wind
shear. Surface observations and Air Force aircraft data show that
the system is vertically tilted with the low-level center partially
exposed and located nearly 100 miles west of the mid-level center
that is apparent in satellite images. The wind field of the storm
also remains lopsided, with most of the strong winds confined to the
eastern half of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at
45 kt, but this is probably generous based on the aircraft data and
an ASCAT pass from last evening.

The storm has been crawling and moving erratically. In general,
Melissa is likely to inch northward during the next 36 to 48 hours
as the storm is influenced by a weakness in the subtropical ridge.
By late Friday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to build eastward to
the north of the storm, and that pattern change should induce a slow
westward or west-northwestward motion over the weekend. By early
next week, that ridge is expected to move away as a large-scale
trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. This change in the steering
flow should cause Melissa to begin to gain more latitude again by
the end of the forecast period. Given the complex steering pattern
and continued model differences in the predicted vertical depth of
Melissa, there remains a significant spread in the deterministic
guidance and the ensemble solutions. One thing we feel confident
about is that Melissa is likely to move slowly and remain in the
vicinity of Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba for several days. The
NHC track forecast is shifted a little to the right of the previous
one, trending toward a blend of the latest Google DeepMind ensemble
mean and HCCA solution.

The current westerly vertical wind shear over Melissa is expected to
linger for about another day, and that should keep the storm at
around the same intensity during that time. However, after that,
the upper-level wind pattern will gradually become more conducive
while the system remains over the very warm waters of the central
and northwestern Caribbean Sea. These conditions should allow
Melissa to become vertically aligned and strengthen significantly.
In fact, rapid intensification appears likely this weekend and
early next week. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope from 12 to 72 hours, but leans toward the
upper end of the guidance at days 4 and 5. As Melissa intensifies,
its wind field is expected to grow and become more symmetric.

Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to meander over the central Caribbean Sea for
several days and is forecast to become a major hurricane by late
this weekend or early next week. Interests in Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba,
and the Dominican Republic are urged to continue monitoring the
latest forecasts.

2. Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged period of
strong winds, possibly lasting for a day or more, is increasing for
Jamaica and the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds
could begin in these areas on Friday and continue increasing over
the weekend.

3. Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of
the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through the weekend,
bringing a risk of significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 15.0N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 15.2N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 15.6N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 16.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 16.4N 75.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 16.6N 75.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 16.7N 76.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 16.9N 77.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 17.1N 78.0W 115 KT 130 MPH

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...HURRICANE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 74.9W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
island, and has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a warning.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...MELISSA REORGANIZING AND EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING SOON...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 74.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES




Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Melissa's structure has undergone a metamorphosis this morning.
Convection developed up-shear of the system for the first time after
the prior advisory, with some evidence of loose banding beginning to
take shape. This structure could indicate that the westerly vertical
wind shear that has been affecting the system the last couple of
days is beginning to subside, and could allow the low and mid-level
centers to become better aligned. For now though, the surface
circulation remains rather broad and still tilted to the northeast
with height. The peak 850 mb flight level winds from the ongoing Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance mission have only been 40 to 45 kt. A
blend of the lower aircraft data and higher satellite estimates
results in the initial intensity being adjusted to 40 kt for this
advisory.

The center of the tropical storm may have reformed northward from
last night, as the last several aircraft fixes indicates a very
slow north-northwestward drift, estimated at 345/2 kt. As has been
emphasized over the last few discussions, Melissa is likely to
continue moving very slowly as it drifts northward towards a
weakness in the mid-level ridging produced by an upper-level trough
over the Bahamas. This trough is expected to lift out over the next
24-48 hours, allowing a narrow mid-level ridge to build back in from
the west. In response, the track guidance shows Melissa turning
westward between 48 to 96 h, but the ridge remains centered to the
northwest, likely explaining why the forward motion is expected to
remain quite slow. Compared to 24 h ago, the guidance is in better
agreement on this westward turn, but how sharp this turn is, and how
far northward Melissa makes it in the meantime still remains
uncertain. A variety of model solutions show Melissa south of
Jamaica (ECMWF), over Jamaica (GDMI), or north of Jamaica (HMON).
The track forecast this cycle continues to split the difference
between the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and GDMI
solutions, and is shifted a bit north compared to the previous track
forecast.

The shear over Melissa has been gradually decreasing, now under 20
kt in the latest ECMWF-SHIPS guidance. This shear is expected to
decrease further, remaining between 10-15 kt over the remainder of
the forecast period. Other environmental favors are also very
favorable, with 30-31 C sea-surface temperatures, and sufficient
mid-level moisture. The main intensity challenge is predicting when
Melissa becomes a more symmetric and vertical aligned tropical
cyclone. Given the improved structure seen on satellite, it seems
the time-table for this process to occur has moved up in the
forecast period. Assuming Melissa can then establish an inner core
in the next 48 hours, a period of rapid intensification also appears
increasingly likely, sometime in the 2 to 3 day period. The latest
NHC intensity forecast now makes Melissa a hurricane in 48 hours, a
major hurricane in 72 h, and a peak intensity of 115 kt in 96 hours.
The end intensity could be conservative if Melissa ends up further
south of Jamaica with less land interaction, as suggested by the 00z
ECMWF and HAFS guidance. Over this period, the tropical cyclone is
expected to grow in size, and likely be a large and dangerous
hurricane towards the end of the forecast period.

Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to meander over the central Caribbean Sea for
several days and become a major hurricane by late this weekend or
early next week. Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a
prolonged multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy
rainfall resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides, and coastal flooding continues to increase for Jamaica.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in
Jamaica by Friday or Saturday.

2. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or more over
the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. In addition, interests in Cuba and
the rest of Haiti are urged to continue monitoring the latest
forecasts for Melissa.

3. In addition to Jamaica, Melissa will produce heavy rainfall
across portions of the southern Dominican Republic and southern
Haiti through this weekend and continuing into next week. This
rainfall will result in significant, life-threatening flash flooding
and numerous landslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 15.4N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 15.9N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.3N 74.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 16.7N 74.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 17.1N 75.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 17.3N 75.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 17.4N 76.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 17.4N 77.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 17.7N 78.4W 115 KT 130 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...MELISSA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWEST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWEST COAST OF
HAITI, WITH HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED FOR
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 75.3W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...MELISSA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN INTENSITY...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES




Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Like the past couple of days, Melissa's structure has degraded once
again this afternoon, with the low-level circulation yet again
becoming partially exposed on the west side of the deepest
convection. This structure is consistent with a tropical cyclone
that continues to exhibit significant tilt with height in the
downshear direction. A scatterometer pass received after the prior
advisory also indicated the center itself remains quite broad with a
continued asymmetric wind field and large radius of maximum wind.
The initial intensity is being held at 40 kt this advisory, without
a substantial change in the subjective or objective intensity aids
since the last recon plane left the storm. A NOAA-P3 recon mission
will sample the system this evening providing updated detail on
the structure and intensity of the storm.

Melissa continues to move very slowly, with the initial motion a
very slow north-northwest drift at 345/2 kt. The tropical storm's
very slow motion over the last day or so is related to it being
caught between two mid-level ridges, one located to its southeast
over the Lesser Antilles providing northeast steering, and another
mid-level ridge building in northwest from Mexico providing
southwest steering. Their combined influence is roughly canceling
Melissa's overall steering, with a lot of track influences the last
couple of nights related to center reformations to the east and
north. Interestingly, much of the hurricane-regional model guidance
suggests another reformation could occur tonight, and the track
guidance envelope has a distinct bend to the northeast in the 12 to
24 hour forecast points. Given the large convective burst ongoing
just east of the current broad center, it is feasible it may nudge
the short-term track east of due north. After the next day or so,
the mid-level ridge currently over Mexico is expected to expand
poleward of the storm, and is expected to help turn Melissa to the
west. How far north Melissa gets before it turns to the west
continues to remain uncertain. One notable change from this morning
is that the 12z Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI), which was
previously on the northeast side of the track guidance, abruptly
shifted to the southwest side of the envelope, now very close to
the latest 12z ECWMF forecast. In contrast, both the 12z HAFS-A/B
regional hurricane models shifted their tracks further north and
east, related to an overnight center reformation. All these
shuffling guidance tracks highlight the uncertainty of the overall
track forecast, and the latest NHC track was only nudged slightly
southward from this morning, blending the reliable HCCA and GDMI
aids. This forecast track takes Melissa just south of Jamaica in
60-96 hours, though it is worth noting there are guidance aids that
move it near or over Jamaica earlier in the forecast than shown
here.

Melissa's broad and asymmetric structure argues against much
short-term intensification, though the shear that had been plaguing
the system is soon expected to decrease. It will likely take at
least 24 hours for the storm's tilted structure to become better
aligned to take advantage of the other favorable environmental
factors (very warm sea-surface temperatures, sufficently moist
mid-levels). Regardless, the intensity guidance is insistent on
Melissa undergoing a period of rapid intensification in the forecast
period, and all 50 members of the Google DeepMind ensemble show the
system becoming a major hurricane or stronger. The NHC intensity
forecast will follow suit, showing rapid intensification from 36 to
72 h, intensifying Melissa from a tropical storm to a category 4
hurricane in this time period. Remarkably, this is still lower than
some of the hurricane-regional models, and is in best agreement
with the GDMI intensity forecast, which have plenty of members
stronger this the current NHC peak intensity of 125 kt. Over the
forecast period, the tropical cyclone is expected to grow in size
significantly, and it will likely be a large and dangerous hurricane
towards the end of the forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged
multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall
resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in
Jamaica by Friday or Saturday.

2. Haiti: Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash
flooding and landslides across southwestern Haiti by this weekend
into early next week. Extensive damage to roads and buildings is
expected, potentially isolating communities for an extended period
of time. This is a life-threatening situation and immediate
preparations to protect life and property should be taken. Strong
winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon
peninsula of Haiti.

3. Remainder of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall could
also produce significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides in southern Dominican Republic. Interests in
Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa since the risk of heavy
rainfall, damaging winds, and storm surge appears to be increasing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 15.6N 75.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 15.8N 75.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 16.0N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 16.5N 75.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 16.8N 75.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 17.1N 76.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 17.1N 76.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 17.1N 77.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 18.0N 78.4W 125 KT 145 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT THE CENTER OF MELISSA HAS
REFORMED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 75.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

...MELISSA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED AND STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA INTO THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 75.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica



Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Melissa has gotten a little better organized this evening, with the
low-level center re-forming a little to the north close to a burst
of deep convection. However, tail Doppler radar data from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggests the storm is still not
vertically aligned, and the circulation at 700 and 500 mb is still
poorly defined. The central pressure remains near 1001 mb, so the
initial intensity will be held at 40 kt. However, the aircraft wind
data suggest this could be a little generous.

The initial motion is now slowly northward, 355/3 kt. Melissa
remains trapped in an area of weak steering currents between
mid-level ridges to the southeast and northwest. During the next
couple of days, the ridge to the northwest is forecast to build
eastward to the north of Melissa in the wake of a mid-latitude
shortwave trough currently moving eastward through the Bahamas.
This evolution would cause Melissa to move slowly northward for the
next 24 h or so, followed by a westerly turn at a continued slow
forward speed. The GFS and the HAFS regional hurricane models show
a more initial eastward motion possibly due to center re-formation,
and due to this they forecast a track east of Jamaica, followed by
an eventual northward motion toward eastern Cuba. The ECMWF,
Canadian, UKMET, HFIP Corrected Consensus, and Google DeepMind
forecast a more westerly track that passes south of Jamaica,
followed by a northward turn near or west of the western end of the
island near the end of the forecast period. The HRWF, HMON, and the
other consensus models are in between these and forecast the center
to cross Jamaica. The new forecast continues to follow the more
westerly solution and is little changed from the previous forecast.
It should be noted that regardless of the exact track, the center
of Melissa is likely to pass dangerously close to Jamaica during
the next few days, and it could also come close to the southwestern
peninsula of Haiti.

Melissa is still feeling the effects of about 15 kt of westerly
shear, and between this and the disorganized structure only slow
strengthening is expected during the next 24 h. After that time, a
combination of more favorable upper-level winds and very warm sea
surface temperatures should allow considerable strengthening once
the cyclone gets better organized. The intensity guidance remains
in good agreement on the possibility of rapid intensification as
the center nears Jamaica, and the new intensity forecast is
unchanged from the previous forecast. In addition, the tropical
cyclone is expected to grow significantly in size, and it will
likely be a large and dangerous hurricane towards the end of the
forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Jamaica: Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged
multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall
resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous
landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in
Jamaica by Saturday.

2. Haiti: Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash
flooding and landslides across southwestern Haiti by this weekend
into early next week. Extensive damage to roads and buildings is
expected, potentially isolating communities for an extended period
of time. This is a life-threatening situation and immediate
preparations to protect life and property should be taken. Strong
winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon
peninsula of Haiti.

3. Remainder of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall could
also produce significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides in southern Dominican Republic. Interests in
Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa since the risk of heavy
rainfall, damaging winds, and storm surge appears to be increasing.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 16.2N 75.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 16.4N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 16.8N 75.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 17.2N 75.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 17.3N 76.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 17.4N 76.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 17.5N 77.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 17.7N 78.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 19.3N 78.5W 125 KT 145 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven