FLU FLASH

[Windy]

This may or may not be something; China's not the best for releasing reliable information. If this is a jump of H5N1 to humans, the fact that it is apparently not as lethal is good news. (Again, assuming that China is providing reliable information.)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060402/hl_afp/healthchinaflu_060402123620

Excerpt:

BEIJING (AFP) - Over 400 students at a university in central China's Henan province were hospitalized with high fevers linked to an unknown flu virus, state press and a school official have said.

The outbreak began on March 26 when 22 students were hospitalized with high fevers, Xinhua news agency said.

The next day the number of sick students at the Henan University of Science and Technology in Luoyang city rose to 88, and on March 28 there were 208 sick students in the university's infirmary, it said.

[Cookiely]

Doesn't sound like Avian flu or the death toll would have been high. I would suspect if 208 students with Avian flu at least a hundred would have died. Hospitalizations would have been longer too.

[greeng13]

Actually the students are in college meaning that they are less likely to die. With influenza i have always thought/heard that it is the elderly and very young who are most likely to persih when infected.

[Windy]

Well, a couple of things. First off, if/when H5N1 jumps to human-to-human infection, there is no assurance that it will be anywhere near as lethal as it is now. Second, China isn't the greatest about full disclosure. There could be a morgue full of a couple hundred college students and I doubt we'd hear about it, so long as they had it contained. That said, may as well take them at face value until shown otherwise.

Also, H5N1 does not attack the young and elderly; it's mortality profile is similar to that of the influenza epidemic of the late 10's -- mostly young adults (healthy people in their 20s and 30s). The main reason relates to the immune system; Google "cytokine storm" to learn more.

[Windy]

Here's an update:

http://www.interfax.cn/showfeature.asp?aid=11707&slug=birdflu

[greeng13]

Well, a couple of things. First off, if/when H5N1 jumps to human-to-human infection, there is no assurance that it will be anywhere near as lethal as it is now. Second, China isn't the greatest about full disclosure. There could be a morgue full of a couple hundred college students and I doubt we'd hear about it, so long as they had it contained. That said, may as well take them at face value until shown otherwise.

Also, H5N1 does not attack the young and elderly; it's mortality profile is similar to that of the influenza epidemic of the late 10's -- mostly young adults (healthy people in their 20s and 30s). The main reason relates to the immune system; Google "cytokine storm" to learn more.

i googled it and got to this page:

http://www.bupa.co.uk/health_information/html/health_news/281003flu.html

which saiys this after discussing cytokine storm with no mention of those 20-30yrs of age even after discussing the 1919 outbreak.

With no cure available at the moment, vaccination for those most vulnerable to flu infection is the best choice. For those aged 65 and over, plus younger people considered at high risk, yearly flu vaccinations are free through the NHS and are recommended.

Dr. John Watson, from the Health Protection Agency, said, "For most people flu is an unpleasant rather than dangerous illness. However, for the at-risk groups, such as the elderly and patients with heart problems, diabetes or asthma, it can be much more dangerous. This is why it is important for those in the at-risk groups who are recommended for vaccination take up the opportunity."

so I wasn't entirely convinced.

but then i found this site:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_storm

that said this:

It is theorized that cytokine storms were responsible for many of the deaths during the 1918 influenza pandemic, which killed a disproportionate number of young adults (a phenomenon that could repeat itself in future flu pandemics). In this case, a healthy immune system may have been a liability rather than an asset. Preliminary research results from Hong Kong also indicated this as the probable reason of many deaths during the SARS epidemic in 2003

i'm confused....