Iran Nuclear Standoff

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#241 Postby greeng13 » Mon Feb 27, 2006 7:16 pm

I agree Luis. Although it was pointed out in an editorial in the paper here at least about a week or so ago (sorry i do not have a link) about how Iran is not a very "unified" country. There are sevral different sects that form up various percentages of the overall population and not all of them have the same ideals as their loud-mouthed President does.

I think the title of the editorial was something like "Iranians won't jump on the bandwagon" or something like that. At least that offers some "hope" if you will.

To me the country does seem a lot like Iraq (please don't think I am trying to belittle Iran's politics into those of Iraq's because they have completely different ideals--I do realize that!)...especially now on the verge of a civil war. In Iraq it is the Kurds, the Sunnis, and the Shiites---mainly. There are similarites between the 2.

I'm sorry that I can not remember too many of the specifics (nor the author for that matter) of the editorial...or a link for that matter...on second thought I probably should have done a little more research before this post :D
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#242 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 27, 2006 7:24 pm

greeng13 wrote:I agree Luis. Although it was pointed out in an editorial in the paper here at least about a week or so ago (sorry i do not have a link) about how Iran is not a very "unified" country. There are sevral different sects that form up various percentages of the overall population and not all of them have the same ideals as their loud-mouthed President does.

I think the title of the editorial was something like "Iranians won't jump on the bandwagon" or something like that. At least that offers some "hope" if you will.

To me the country does seem a lot like Iraq (please don't think I am trying to belittle Iran's politics into those of Iraq's because they have completely different ideals--I do realize that!)...especially now on the verge of a civil war. In Iraq it is the Kurds, the Sunnis, and the Shiites---mainly. There are similarites between the 2.

I'm sorry that I can not remember too many of the specifics (nor the author for that matter) of the editorial...or a link for that matter...on second thought I probably should have done a little more research before this post :D


That is what I haved been saying for a long time in this thread.An uprise of the population of Iran against the mullahs may be the best solution.However it's not probable that an uprise can happen but never say never.
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#243 Postby BEER980 » Mon Feb 27, 2006 9:57 pm

Well the answer seems to be, no we can't take them out in one big secret strike. It will take quite a large force flying multiple missions to get the job done. Unfortunatly it will come down to military action they way it looks. It is a no win situation either way. If we don't take out the nukes then a crazy guy has them to do what he will. If we do then the whole Islamic world will beating a path to us while our oil supply is shut off. I have read several accounts of how it might happen and they are not good. I can repost the story of how it might play out if you like. This I feel does not have a good ending for any party involved but I did not create it.
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#244 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Feb 28, 2006 2:06 pm

best to take care of this while it is a little problem, rather than have to take care of it when it becomes a big problem. We made that mistake in the early 1910's, and it led to WW1, WW2, Cold War, Korea, Vietnam, Soviet vs Afghanistan, us funding the taliban, who then attacked us, US vs Afghanistan, Iraq, and now possibly Iran, not to mention Kosovo, Grenada, and others. Deal with this now
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#245 Postby JTD » Tue Feb 28, 2006 3:06 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:best to take care of this while it is a little problem, rather than have to take care of it when it becomes a big problem. We made that mistake in the early 1910's, and it led to WW1, WW2, Cold War, Korea, Vietnam, Soviet vs Afghanistan, us funding the taliban, who then attacked us, US vs Afghanistan, Iraq, and now possibly Iran, not to mention Kosovo, Grenada, and others. Deal with this now


I agree and actually that really puts things into perspective.
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#246 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 28, 2006 5:49 pm

Image

Image

Image

Above photos are of three big facilities where they are enriching uranimun.As you can see those areas are very big and many are underground plants so it wont be easy to do air strikes.But as I said in this thread in the past if military action comes then the mother of all bombs (21,000 Pounds) can be dropped and take out those underground areas.
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#247 Postby BEER980 » Tue Feb 28, 2006 8:18 pm

The MOAB will not have much effect on underground facilities in Iran. Now the surface area in the three mile ring will be another story. This is not going to be a cake walk. There are some that think we might not be able to reach the underground areas with bunker busters on the initial strike and make take two or three strikes.
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#248 Postby f5 » Tue Feb 28, 2006 9:34 pm

Iran saw what Israel did to Iraq thus they hid them underground beacuse of what Iran likes to call a zionist strike
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#249 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Mar 01, 2006 4:12 pm

well...is it possible we take out their missle lauchers first? then we jam them and worry about the underground bunkers...BUT we must take those lauchers out...if not then Israel will end up getting fired apon and all HE** will break loose...and possiblly WWIII... :eek:
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#250 Postby cycloneye » Wed Mar 01, 2006 6:27 pm

Updated: 4:11 p.m. ET March 1, 2006
MOSCOW - Russia and Iran ended Wednesday’s round of crucial talks on a Kremlin proposal to enrich uranium for Tehran without achieving any breakthrough, but negotiators agreed to meet again Thursday, Russian news agencies reported.

The chief Iranian nuclear negotiator also said his country did not intend to agree to Russian demands to impose another moratorium on uranium enrichment activity, the Interfax agency reported.

“I want to say that the process of enrichment is the sovereign right of any country,” Interfax quoted Ali Larijani as saying. “You should not take away this right from nations which have a peaceful nuclear program.”


He added that both nations agreed to meet again Thursday, according to RIA Novosti.

Russia’s offer is aimed at easing Western fears that Tehran is forging ahead with efforts to build an atomic bomb.


No progress in the talks between Russia and Iran.One step closer to what many say it's inevitable,the Military option.
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#251 Postby BEER980 » Thu Mar 02, 2006 9:00 pm

Iran Blames U.S. for Stalled Nuke Talks
By GEORGE JAHN, Associated Press Writer

Iran's top nuclear negotiator headed for new talks in Vienna Thursday with angry words for the United States and no reported progress on a compromise to end the international standoff over the Islamic republic's suspect atomic program. Ali Larijani was to sit down Friday with key European foreign ministers and senior nuclear negotiators, just three days before the United Nations nuclear watchdog meets in the Austrian capital to recommend action to the U.N. Security Council, which has the power to issue sanctions against Iran.

On Thursday Larijani accused the United States of scuttling Moscow talks that ended with no movement reported toward a deal that would move part of Iran's nuclear program to Russia, to assuage concern that Iran would divert enriched uranium to make a bomb. Iran, which restarted some enrichment activities last month after a voluntarily freeze, says it wants only peaceful nuclear energy. "America is lying, trying to destroy the Russian proposal," Larijani said at a news conference in Moscow. "The Americans' insistence on handing over the Iranian nuclear dossier to the U.N. Security Council means the destruction of the Russian proposal."

In response to the unusually heated rhetorical assault, State Department spokesman Adam Ereli said: "If Iran has a problem with the state of affairs and the situation it finds itself in, Iran has only itself to blame." A diplomat familiar with the negotiations, who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss them, said Iran had requested the Vienna meeting. The diplomat said Britain, France and Germany would not compromise Friday on their demand that Iran give up enriching uranium inside its borders.

For the meeting to be productive, a letter from the three nations' foreign ministers said, Iran must give a clear commitment to return immediately to "full and sustained suspension of all enrichment-related ... activity." The letter, dated Feb. 27 and shared in part with The Associated Press, also demanded that Iran recommit to allowing the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency pervasive, short-notice inspections of its nuclear activities, after withdrawing such rights last month. Enrichment is a process that can produce fuel for a nuclear reactor or fissile material for a bomb.

A European official suggested France, Britain and Germany had agreed to a final meeting with Iran's negotiator before the IAEA board meeting next week to dispel any notion that Europe was not interested in a negotiated solution. "We are in a listening mode — nothing more," the official said by telephone from outside Vienna. He also spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the negotiations. Meanwhile, a key Iranian opposition figure said that Iran has ramped up its production of missiles capable of carrying atomic warheads.

Providing what he said were secret details of those missile programs, Alireza Jafarzadeh told the AP Thursday that Iran had "significantly increased the production line" of its Shahab 3 missiles last year, and was now turning out 90 a year — more than four times its previous production rate. Jafarzadeh has worked for the political wing of the Mujahedin Khalq, an Iranian opposition group that Washington and the European Union list as a terrorist organization.

Jafarzadeh, who heads the Washington-based Strategic Policy Consulting think tank, helped reveal what was then Iran's clandestine nuclear program three years ago. In January he divulged details of Iran's enrichment plans, which were confirmed a few days ago by the IAEA. However, other accusations he has made against Iran remain unproven. There was no independent confirmation of the information Jafarzadeh offered Thursday, which he said he received from unspecified sources inside Iran.

The most advanced Shahab has a range of nearly 1,200 miles, Jafarzadeh said. That is enough to target arch-foe Israel. Working together with North Korean experts at the Hemmat Missile Industries complex in Tehran, Iranian engineers also were "70 percent" finished on prototype Ghadar 101 and Ghadar 110 missiles, which have a range of up to 1,800 miles, he said, putting central Europe within reach. These missiles also were "ready for launch" within 30 minutes, compared to several hours for the Shahab, he said.

U.S. intelligence chief John Negroponte told lawmakers Wednesday in Washington that the risk of Iran acquiring nuclear arms and merging them with ballistic missile systems was "a reason for immediate concern." Meetings that started in 2004 between the Iranians and Europeans failed to find common ground on enrichment, leading to a chain of events that resulted in the IAEA board reporting Tehran to the security council Feb. 4.

In exchange for backing that move, Russia and China — which have strong political and economic ties to Iran — insisted the council wait for the results of Monday's IAEA board meeting before taking any action.

Larijani said his team had put forward a "package proposal" in Moscow, and denied that the discussions had ended in failure. "We need to give diplomats time to look at it." A Russian nuclear agency official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to media, confirmed the Moscow talks had snagged over Iran's refusal to freeze enrichment.
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#252 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Mar 02, 2006 9:26 pm

Now it's REALLY very serious...
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#253 Postby BEER980 » Fri Mar 03, 2006 8:29 pm

Another step down the same road we have been traveling.

Iran-EU bid for atomic deal before IAEA meet fails
Fri Mar 3, 2006 7:50 PM ET

By Mark Heinrich and Parisa Hafezi

VIENNA (Reuters) - Iran and top EU powers failed on Friday to resolve a standoff over its nuclear work before a U.N. atomic watchdog meeting next week that may lead to Security Council action over fears Tehran seeks nuclear bombs.

After two-hour talks in Vienna at Iran's request, foreign ministers or top diplomats from Germany, France and Britain, as well as EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, said Tehran had no new ideas on how to allay concerns about its intentions. They repeated to Iran that it must shelve uranium enrichment-related work to regain trust and spawn fresh negotiations on trade incentives, which could include Russia's offer to purify uranium for Iran.

The EU leaders said Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani gave no sign Tehran would back off from its quest for sensitive nuclear technology. Iran says it seeks to generate electricity, not build bombs as the West suspects. The International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-nation board of governors convenes on Monday to weigh a report by the IAEA chief saying essentially Iran has ignored a February 4 board resolution urging it to shelve uranium-enrichment to ease the crisis.

Instead, Iran is vacuum-testing 20 centrifuges, which convert uranium into fuel for power plants or, if highly purified, bombs. It also plans to install 3,000 centrifuges later this year in a push toward industrial scale enrichment. In New York, China and Russia's U.N. ambassadors said time was running out before the Monday meeting but they still hoped for a solution. "There is window of opportunity," Russia's Andrei Denisov told reporters. "Whether we, I mean all of us, use it or not, well it's another question."

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan on Friday called in envoys of the five permanent Security Council powers -- China, Russia, the United States, Britain and France -- to hear his discussions with ex-Iranian President Mohammed Khatami at a conference they both attended in Doha, Qatar last weekend. Khatami was reported to have said that Iran's approach to the crisis had changed, its nuclear programs were for peaceful purposes and Tehran did not want a Security Council referral.

In Vienna, French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said after the talks, "We wanted to see if Iran was in a position to give a positive answer to the coming IAEA board. Unfortunately we were not able to reach agreement." German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said the EU3, which froze talks with Iran in January after it broke a 2-1/2-year moratorium on nuclear work, granted a request for a short-notice meeting but heard no new proposal.

"Today's meeting came at a very critical point in time. Time is running short. If we want success (by negotiations), we have to get it now," Steinmeier said in a statement. "The IAEA board deliberations on Iran's nuclear program will happen next week and they will be of great significance -- either we'll achieve a deal enabling renewed negotiations or the matter will be referred to the Security Council."

'TONE NEW BUT NOT SUBSTANCE'

John Sawers, the British Foreign Office's political director, said the EU3 were willing to meet Iranian officials again at short notice if they had something new to say.

"We heard a new tone. It was more constructive. But there wasn't the essential move of substance we were looking for," he told reporters.

"What we heard was a request we accept they should go ahead with nuclear R&D (research and development). We are opposed to that because so-called R&D is the essential precursor to full-scale enrichment ... needed to build nuclear bombs."

The failure of Friday's meeting surprised no one, given that Tehran is accelerating fresh uranium enrichment activity while going slow in talks on Russia's compromise idea to defuse the crisis before the Security Council considers the crisis. The Vienna-based IAEA board voted on February 4 to report Iran to the council but on condition the foremost world body on war and peace issues would not flex its muscle at least until after next week's session.

In past weeks, Iranian leaders have been roaming the world trying to bolster their position that the West had no evidence of covert bomb making. Western concern has been stoked by Iran's 18-year-long coverup of sensitive atomic research from the IAEA, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's calls for Israel's destruction, and IAEA complaints that Iran continues to stonewall key inquiries.

Larijani said earlier Iran asked for another hearing with the EU because "we believe our programs are clear and defensible" but warned Russia's proposal would die if the Security Council got involved. IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei met Larijani later on Friday but said afterwards no deal emerged on demands Iran suspend enrichment again and cooperate fully with agency investigations.

"We are working to go back to negotiations. It is going to be our ultimate aim to resolve the issue. I think issues (at talks today) have been clarified," he told reporters. ElBaradei is worried that involving the Security Council may drive Iran into a corner and lead to deadlock, given that veto-wielding Russia and China, both with heavy investments in the Islamic Republic, reject sanctions.

(Additional reporting by Evelyn Leopold in New York)
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#254 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 05, 2006 5:19 pm


Updated: 3:40 p.m. ET March 5, 2006
WASHINGTON - Iran faces “tangible and painful consequences” if it continues its nuclear activities and the United States will use “all tools at our disposal” to stop this threat, a senior U.S. official said Sunday, ahead of a crucial international meeting on Iran.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, speaking at a convention of Jewish-Americans, said it is too soon for the U.N. Security Council to impose sanctions on Iran but other countries are talking about doing so and Washington is “beefing up defensive measures to cope with the Iranian nuclear threat.”

Monday’s meeting of the 35-nation International Atomic Energy Agency governing board is expected to take stock of Iran’s continued defiance of U.S. and European demands to end sensitive weapons-related uranium enrichment activity and then hand the case over to the security council.


March 6 will be a very important day as the IAEA will report to the UN it's findings about Irans nuclear plants.
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#255 Postby cycloneye » Sun Mar 05, 2006 6:50 pm

TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) -- Iran will resume large-scale nuclear enrichment if the International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors refers the Islamic Republic to the U.N. Security Council, the country's chief nuclear negotiator said Sunday.

Ali Larijani also warned that Iran could use its oil production "as a weapon" if the nuclear imbroglio worsens.

The IAEA board of governors meets Monday, and it is expected to refer the matter to the Security Council.

"Referral to the Security Council will not have any benefit for us or anyone else," said Larijani.

"And this will actually cause a lot of problems for others. Referral to Security Council would definitely be a setback to the discussion and the talks. To have a nuclear program, this is our God-given right, and no country will give up such a right. We have left all the doors open for discussion."

"We will definitely resume our enrichment and if Iran is referred to the Security Council."

Iran has already resumed enrichment on a very small scale at its Natanz research facility, testing an cascading array of 20 centrifuges, according to the IAEA. Thousands of centrifuges are required to produce enough enriched uranium to be useful.

Iran insists it wants to use its nuclear program to augment a burgeoning domestic demand for electricity, freeing up its vast oil reserves -- Iran is estimated to have the fourth largest in the world -- for export.

But the West -- particularly the United States -- believes Iran intends to build nuclear weapons, an allegation Iran denies. Three years of negotiations with Britain, France and Germany -- known as the EU-3 -- failed to produce an agreement.

The last such negotiations fell apart Friday, although German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said the talks were held in a "very constructive atmosphere" and he remained hopeful that Tehran "will take the necessary steps for confidence-building measures in order to continue the dialogue which we all very much want."

Larijani had requested that session after meeting in Moscow with officials about a Russian proposal to enrich uranium for Tehran inside Russia, provided Iran cease enrichment activities inside its own borders. But, he said Sunday that "the doors to discussion are open."

"We would like to continue our dialogue," he said.

He warned, however, that adverse action against Iran by the Security Council could force Iran to respond in kind.

"We have no interest to use oil as a sort of weapon to fight other countries," he said. "But naturally, this may become a weapon of resistance from our country if the situation gets worse."

"To threaten Iran ... it just causes Iran to cut back on its cooperation," he said.

Larijani also blamed the United States for fanning the flames the problem.

"The American Government needs to create some kind of crisis because, now, in regard to Iraq, they have made a huge mess, and now they have to redirect the attention of the world to something else."


Well let's see what happens tommorow with the IAEA report to the UN and if they will shut down their oil.
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#256 Postby BEER980 » Sun Mar 05, 2006 10:30 pm

I don't think they will shut down the oil flow. Unless they have some hidden agreement with their large buyers it will back fire on them. If that is the case then they could "wink...wink" shut of the flow and drive the price up for a short time to $70 or $80 bbl.
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#257 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 06, 2006 6:20 pm

What To Do?
IAEA negotiators have few ideas about where to go next on Iran’s nukes. Can they test the ‘middle ground?’


By Michael Hirsh
Newsweek
Updated: 2:39 p.m. ET March 6, 2006
March 6, 2006 - As the leading powers meet in Vienna today and tomorrow to address Iran's nuclear program, the most serious problem they face is not what is going on in Tehran. It is that no one on the Western side seems to know what to do about Tehran. The major negotiators at the International Atomic Energy Agency meeting are now looking to the United States, which convinced the Europeans to take a harder line against Iranian enrichment a year ago. Washington is touting its diplomatic isolation of Tehran as a success (and so it has been, helped by the over-the-top rhetoric of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad). But the Bush administration doesn't seem to have any good ideas about where to go next with this isolation. It is a tool, yet the Americans seem to treat it as an end, not a means. As the debate heads into the U.N. Security Council, policy is at a standstill.

Washington has said it isn't close to considering military action. Nor is it even ready to propose economic sanctions, as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice reiterated over the weekend. OK, no attack, no sanctions: that would seem to leave a negotiated solution. But there is no proposal on the table, and none forthcoming.

What to do? Forceful diplomacy works only if it is backed by the credible threat of force. That doesn't really exist here. Bush is too vulnerable to Iranian retaliation against U.S. troops next door in Iraq, and even Washington hardliners realize that nothing would do more to rally popular Iranian support for Ahmadinejad than an attack. Bush ignored Iran for most of his first term (beyond calling it part of the axis of evil), then waited until an even more objectionable regime came into power in Tehran before he spelled out any approach. Now the Bush administration wants to devote $75 million to promote regime change, but achieving this from the outside is an unrealistic hope as well—especially when combined with the current U.S. policy of unremitting confrontation. Simply continuing to issue ultimatums, without real negotiation, will only turn Ahmadinejad into the next Fidel Castro (he is a deft populist who travels to the provinces more than any other Iranian president). Building on the perception of a foreign threat, he will only consolidate his power.

Even now Tehran is hoping for some new diplomatic daylight. Iranian pragmatists stand ready to constrain Ahmadinejad if there is some give on the American side. Among the solutions: a face-saving way to allow the Iranians to say they are retaining the right to enrich on their own soil, which has become their "red line" in talks, but which also ensures they will not develop a bomb, which is the West's bottom line. One such proposal was floated in recent weeks to little notice by John Thomson, the former chairman of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. This calls for a foreign-managed consortium or holding company on Iranian soil, overseen by the IAEA. Governments such as Britain and Germany could be among the shareholders. "The holding company would lease all Iranian facilities connected with enrichment, including their existing centrifuges," Thomson and Geoffrey Forden wrote in the Financial Times on Feb. 19. "The IAEA presence and the international management company are more likely to deter and detect clandestine activity than the solutions currently preferred by the west, including enrichment in Russia."

The Iranians may not be averse to this idea, diplomats involved in the negotiations tell NEWSWEEK. They might also consider other compromise proposals, such as an IAEA-monitored "cap" on the number of centrifuges that Tehran would be permitted to have for "research and development" enrichment. "The middle ground has never been tested," says a diplomat who is close to the discussions in Tehran. Ironically, discussing a plan like the consortium would take the Europeans back to where they were before Washington prodded them into insisting that Tehran accept what it says it cannot: a total abdication of its right to enrich uranium (in 2004 the "EU-3"—Germany , Britain and France—had only bargained for suspension, not cessation). But the Europeans will need to get the OK from George W. Bush to sanction such a compromise. For the moment, he's not likely to give it.

The Iranians naturally see a White House plot in this. Some Iranian negotiators believe that Rice and Bush were leery of leaving America isolated again if it decided to strike—as occurred with Iraq—so they decided to play along with European negotiations while quietly undermining them.


A good articule by Newsweek magazine about all the opitions that the U.S has in this Iranian situation and there are no easy options available.
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#258 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 07, 2006 12:57 pm

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Iran will not be allowed to have nuclear weapons and faces "meaningful consequences" if it persists in defying the international community, Vice President Dick Cheney said on Tuesday.

Cheney, speaking to the pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC, also reaffirmed that the United States was keeping all options on the table -- including military force -- in its determination to prevent Iran from developing nuclear arms.

"The Iranian regime needs to know that if it stays on its present course the international community is prepared to impose meaningful consequences," Cheney said.

Cheney spoke as the 35-nation International Atomic Energy Agency governing board was meeting in Vienna to decide its next steps on Iran.



"For our part, the United States is keeping all options on the table. ... We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon," Cheney said.


All options are on the table says the vicepresident.
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#259 Postby alicia-w » Tue Mar 07, 2006 1:32 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Above photos are of three big facilities where they are enriching uranimun.As you can see those areas are very big and many are underground plants so it wont be easy to do air strikes.But as I said in this thread in the past if military action comes then the mother of all bombs (21,000 Pounds) can be dropped and take out those underground areas.


The MOAB is an air blast bomb and will have no effect on the underground facilities:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/moab.htm

The Bunker Buster, on the other hand, may do the trick:

http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/smart/gbu-28.htm
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#260 Postby cycloneye » Tue Mar 07, 2006 3:15 pm

A combination of the MOAB and the bunkers will do it.
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