Iran Nuclear Standoff

[Derek Ortt]

Iran blocking the straits may not be a wise thing for them to do.

The last time they tried something was Operation Preying Mantis. We dropped much of their Navy in one afternoon and they ended up accepting Saddam's peace terms (the alternative may have been accepting Reagan's)

[cycloneye]

Iran blocking the straits may not be a wise thing for them to do.

I think the opposite.Let them block the Straits of Hormuz even as the price of oil gets above $100 a barrel if that occurs,because by them doing that will cause the mighty U.S Navy with 2 carriers,submarines and destroyers to pound them in the open waters of the Persian Gulf.If Iran wants war a wiser move by them would be to invade Lebannon and join their friends (Hezbollah) .But by doing that the U.S. for sure will defend the Lebanese goverment.So Iran is in a no winning situation unless they smug nuclear technology to terrorists and that may be the biggest fear that they can cause.

[x-y-no]

Hmmm ... well ...

Unfortunately Iran is in a substantially stronger position now than they were in 1988.

But on the other hand I think that's a rather temporary situation. The Iranian government has considerable internal trouble, which if left to fester should weaken them over time. If anything, provoking a conflict in the short term would help them with their domestic political problems - an external enemy always serves to galvanize internal support and suppress dissent.

I'm concerned about Iran's nuclear ambitions too, but we still have some time to improve our strategic position. Bring about some sort of resolution in Iraq which allows us to get the bulk of our people out of their vulnerable position, make a major diplomatic effort to rally the Sunni Arab states around creating a credible counterbalance to Iran and then we'll be in a far better position to apply credible pressure on the Iranians.

[cycloneye]

Iran Parlament approves resolution to revise U.N. ties

This goes against my prediction for 2007 that I posted in the predictions thread but let's see what happens.

[cycloneye]

Iran vows to humiliate the.U.S.

More blah,blah,blah from that wacko president of Iran.

[cycloneye]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,242243,00.html



Israel has drawn up secret plans to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities with tactical nuclear weapons. Two Israeli air force squadrons are training to blow up an Iranian facility using low-yield nuclear “bunker-busters”, according to several Israeli military sources.

Let's see what happens in the next few hours or days but it looks like the patience of Israel is getting thinner.

[Brent]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,242243,00.html



Israel has drawn up secret plans to destroy Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities with tactical nuclear weapons. Two Israeli air force squadrons are training to blow up an Iranian facility using low-yield nuclear “bunker-busters”, according to several Israeli military sources.

Let's see what happens in the next few hours or days but it looks like the patience of Israel is getting thinner.

[cycloneye]

The attack would be the first with nuclear weapons since 1945, when the United States dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The Israeli weapons would each have a force equivalent to one-fifteenth of the Hiroshima bomb.

Under the plans, conventional laser-guided bombs would open “tunnels” into the targets. “Mini-nukes” would then immediately be fired into a plant at Natanz, exploding deep underground to reduce the risk of radioactive fallout.

“As soon as the green light is given, it will be one mission, one strike and the Iranian nuclear project will be demolished,” said one of the sources.

The plans, disclosed to The Sunday Times last week, have been prompted in part by the Israeli intelligence service Mossad’s assessment that Iran is on the verge of producing enough enriched uranium to make nuclear weapons within two years.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,242243,00.html

It looks like they are very close to do the strike as you can read in the information.But if this strike occurs for sure the muslim world will rise against Israel and then all bets are off.

[JonathanBelles]

o god this looks ugly.

[brunota2003]

Israel has identified three prime targets south of Tehran which are believed to be involved in Iran’s nuclear programme:

—Natanz, where thousands of centrifuges are being installed for uranium enrichment

—A uranium conversion facility near Isfahan where, according to a statement by an Iranian vice-president last week, 250 tons of gas for the enrichment process have been stored in tunnels

—A heavy water reactor at Arak, which may in future produce enough plutonium for a bomb Israeli officials believe that destroying all three sites would delay Iran’s nuclear programme indefinitely and prevent them from having to live in fear of a “second Holocaust”.

There are the three targets Israel is thinking about attacking...this next couple of weeks are going to be very, very interesting...

[MiamiensisWx]

I'm a bit skeptical of how this may be executed successfully. I'm concerned that the overall planning may not be sufficient to handle potential backfires. Also, shouldn't this strategy be more secretive if they want to achieve a better success rate for carrying it out?

[cycloneye]

Some analysts warned that Iranian retaliation for such a strike could range from disruption of oil supplies to the West to terrorist attacks against Jewish targets around the world.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0, ... 10,00.html

Yeah,expect over $100 a barrel of oil if the bombing occurs as they will block the straits of Hormuz from all ships.But folks remember that the U.S now has one carrier in the Persian gulf with another going that way right now.So if they do that,the U.S for sure will force them out of the strait.

[Lindaloo]

The US is using the UN to sanction the world and in the same way, to control the world. If you're doing chemical weaponry, then how you are going to tell anyone else, don't do it!!! We all know that Iran could be helping terrorist groups, but there is no evidence of any kind of aggression toward the US. All these sanctions are just making the Iranian people more angry, and keeping the nuclear testing project afloat. I don't think sanctions are going to work, but cooperation and common understanding between the countries.

Um excuse me? Last time I checked the leader of the United States is not a renegade, like the regimes in other countries hellbent on killing us. Who gives a darn if it is making them angry. Do you actually believe he is developing nuclear weapons to look at? decorations? fuel? energy? Think again! If the UN would be more forceful, the United States would not even be in it.

This post right here beats 'em all.

[brunota2003]

Hezbollah is funded by Iran...and isnt some of the attacks occuring in Iraq, against our troops, from Hezbollah?

[Brent]

Some analysts warned that Iranian retaliation for such a strike could range from disruption of oil supplies to the West to terrorist attacks against Jewish targets around the world.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0, ... 10,00.html

Yeah,expect over $100 a barrel of oil if the bombing occurs as they will block the straits of Hormuz from all ships.But folks remember that the U.S now has one carrier in the Persian gulf with another going that way right now.So if they do that,the U.S for sure will force them out of the strait.

I would be very surprised if Iran just sat by and did nothing, so I would expect retaliation.

[cycloneye]

shouldn't this strategy be more secretive if they want to achieve a better success rate for carrying it out?

I also question about why they have to get this information public? It is much better to do the attack in secret to have the element of surprise.

[Gorky]

Hezbollah is funded by Iran...and isnt some of the attacks occuring in Iraq, against our troops, from Hezbollah?

I don't recall ever seeing anything about Hezbollah operating in Iraq against the US. There is a Hezbollah political party in Iraq but it is no relation to the other Hezbollah and was undeground and anti-Saddam during his dictatorship.

[cycloneye]

In an interview with ABC News, Iranian Foreign Minister Manoucher Mottaki was unequivocal on U.N. sponsored sanctions intended to force Iran to halt its nuclear program. (For the full interview visit http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/International ... 824&page=1)

"We consider such a resolution illegal, and a wrong step," he said.

On Iraq, Mottaki opposes the likely troop surge, demanding the withdrawal of U.S. forces.

"The United States has a problem in Iraq," he said. "They should accept that their policy has failed."

U.S. officials say Iran is exacerbating the problem, and accuse it of funding and arming Shiite militias, and providing technology to insurgents for more destructive roadside bombs.


And what is the reaction from the Iranian Foreign Minister? This interview was made before the news about Israel came out.

[brunota2003]

Hezbollah is funded by Iran...and isnt some of the attacks occuring in Iraq, against our troops, from Hezbollah?

I don't recall ever seeing anything about Hezbollah operating in Iraq against the US. There is a Hezbollah political party in Iraq but it is no relation to the other Hezbollah and was undeground and anti-Saddam during his dictatorship.

Well...according to a U.S. Official, they have at least aided in the training of Iraq militias...I think those are the bad guys right? cant keep track of who is who over there anymore (except for Americans)
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15935614/

[JonathanBelles]

how soon could this bombing occur?