Oil price over $147 for the first time-now above $80

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WOW today oil prices hit over 91 dollars. I predict that the price of gas over the next 3-4 week will go up over .60-.70 cents per gallon, to around 3.50+ per gallon. And it could go up towards 3.80 if we are unlucky. I think this could have major impacts on our economy, and if we are not careful a depression could develop.

Lets see if I'm right or wrong.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

As the song goes:

"The end is here, dum da dum, dum da dum, the end is, here."

Everyone can thank the Congress' aborted Armenian Genocide bill for this one. Turkey threatened to further destabilize the region by invading Southern Kurdistan in Northern Iraq. The traders saw how volatile this could render supplies in the Region, and acted accordingly. Can't really say I blame 'em, at least this time.

[TexasStooge]

I hope this doesn't result in another "Great Depression".

[Dionne]

Are we witnessing the beginning of the end of an oil dependent economy? Unlikely.......but we can always have hope. Start thinking outside the box and questioning....what can I do to reduce my carbon footprint?

[gtalum]

The one to thank for the most recent spike in oil prices is Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. His recent bailout of the duplicitous mortgage lenders and irresponsible borrowers (in the form of a reduced interest rate) has destabilized the dollar even moreso than it was before.

That said, the rise in oil prices will have little or no effect on gas prices or the economy. Gas prices are where they are primarily because of refinery capacity, not commodity oil prices. As refinery capacity comes back online (and demand for gasoline is reduced as it always is in winter), the effect will be to offset any increase that would have come from increased oil prices.

Also, the weakened dollar is strengthening American exports, which has a further positive effect on the overall economy. Talk of a "Depression" is nothing more than Chicken Little speculation, though a recession in the next year is not out of the question.

[Nimbus]

Dress rehearsal for MAD MAX IV FURY ROAD?

Gibson is too fat to play Max but here is a trailer

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezG7Zh-BdGc

[Dionne]

The one to thank for the most recent spike in oil prices is Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. His recent bailout of the duplicitous mortgage lenders and irresponsible borrowers (in the form of a reduced interest rate) has destabilized the dollar even moreso than it was before.

That said, the rise in oil prices will have little or no effect on gas prices or the economy. Gas prices are where they are primarily because of refinery capacity, not commodity oil prices. As refinery capacity comes back online (and demand for gasoline is reduced as it always is in winter), the effect will be to offset any increase that would have come from increased oil prices.

Also, the weakened dollar is strengthening American exports, which has a further positive effect on the overall economy. Talk of a "Depression" is nothing more than Chicken Little speculation, though a recession in the next year is not out of the question.

A 42 gallon barrel of sweet crude is over $90. It is at this price while we are experiencing reduced refining capacity. World demand is on the rise for oil. Your base line before any refining certainly reflects the cost of the final product. How can it not?

What is happening is that disposable income is being absorbed as a result of our thirst for oil. And this will change. Not just a seasonal adjustment. People will discover it's cheaper to take the train from Memphis to NOLA than to drive. The examples are endless.

I for one am surprised that the speed limit has yet to be dropped back to 55 MPH. We discovered after Katrina that our work trucks.....running on empty for lack of supply went alot further at 45 MPH.

It is this type of tenacity that will force the changes required.

[gtalum]

The price of gasoline is not tied that closely to the price of oil. You're forgetting that gasoline is essentially a waste byproduct of oil refining. The really valuable refined products are the resins that turn into plastics, epoxies, etc, which are sold wholesale at well over $1 per pound (ie ~$10 per gallon). They have to sell the gasoline just to get rid of it, and will not risk a reduction in gasoline demand because that would essentially choke the refineries with waste byproducts. We are at a new structural price level for gasoline for several different reasons, but it just won't vary significantly again for a long time, regardless of the price of oil.

[vbhoutex]

The oil prices are making our royalty checks bigger, but not bigger enough to offset the rise in gas prices. That tells you how little we make from those royalties!!!

[Dionne]

The price of gasoline is not tied that closely to the price of oil. You're forgetting that gasoline is essentially a waste byproduct of oil refining. The really valuable refined products are the resins that turn into plastics, epoxies, etc, which are sold wholesale at well over $1 per pound (ie ~$10 per gallon). They have to sell the gasoline just to get rid of it, and will not risk a reduction in gasoline demand because that would essentially choke the refineries with waste byproducts. We are at a new structural price level for gasoline for several different reasons, but it just won't vary significantly again for a long time, regardless of the price of oil.

Your correct. Gasoline did not have a market until the internal combustion engine made it's debut. Also, did you know that none of the natural gas from Prudhoe Bay has yet to be harvested? It's called the NGI plant. The natural gas is compressed and returned into the cavity of earth producing the crude. This enhances the recovery of crude deposits. I worked at this location. It's 300 miles above the Arctic Circle. And it's like living on Mars.

[HURAKAN]

If the unrest in the Middle East continues, the price of oil will continue to go up.

We captured an oil-rich country and still we're are having problems with oil. Huh, something must be going wrong over there.

[vbhoutex]

If the unrest in the Middle East continues, the price of oil will continue to go up.

We captured an oil-rich country and still we're are having problems with oil. Huh, something must be going wrong over there.

Uh, we haven't "captured" any counties that I am aware of. If we had "captured" Iraq, we of course would have no oil worries and there would be a lot less violence than there is now since we would have free rein to do whatever we wanted to get rid of the "bad element" present in that country.

[HURAKAN]

In my dictionary "capture" also means "taking over."

[vbhoutex]

We have not taken over Iraq either. We are not the government running that country.

[HURAKAN]

We have not taken over Iraq either. We are not the government running that country.

No, but we established a government that is favorable towards the US in every possible way imagined. Isn't that similar or the same!!!

[arkess7]

Uggggggggg!!!!!!!!! I cant even afford to eat anymore let alone put gas in my car thats gona be close to 4 bucks a gallon!!! Let's hope and pray it doesnt come to that!!!!

[chadtm80]

We have not taken over Iraq either. We are not the government running that country.

No, but we established a government that is favorable towards the US in every possible way imagined. Isn't that similar or the same!!!

Wrong yet again Hurakan.. They established here own government. Take your "America is a big bad bully guy" glasses off for two minutes

[Nimbus]

Uggggggggg!!!!!!!!! I cant even afford to eat anymore let alone put gas in my car thats gona be close to 4 bucks a gallon!!!

The price of oil will come down a lot faster than it went up when the speculative bubble breaks. Prices dropping from an October price peak would arrive just in time for the cold weather. There is no way of preventing these oil speculators from borrowing money to hoard oil is there?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

92 dollars+ now. I wonder how much more it can go up. I heard a few years ago, that if it hits over 100 dollars, then our economy will slow down big time, maybe even start to fall apart. I don't know how much truth there is with it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Here comes $100 oil, and $3 gas
With crude setting new highs every day, experts say there's no way motorists won't see a spike at the pump.
By Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney.com staff writer
October 26 2007: 5:16 PM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- With oil prices setting records over $90 a barrel - and $100 looking ever more likely - experts say there's a good chance drivers will see $3 gasoline before the end of the year.

"Three dollar gasoline in this market is unavoidable," said Stephen Schork, publisher of the industry newsletter the Schork Report. "At this rate, we're going to see $4 a gallon."


Experts say $90 oil will likely mean $3 gas soon.
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Crude oil prices have soared nearly 30 percent over the last month, mainly over fears that supply won't meet demand, a falling U.S. dollar, and what some say is a high degree of speculative investment money.

But so far drivers have been lucky. The national average price for gasoline has risen barely one cent, going from $2.81 last month to $2.82 this month, according to the motorist organization AAA, although in many areas of the country gasoline is already over $3.

Analysts have said the relatively stable gasoline price is due to slack demand following the high-demand summer driving season.

$90 oil won't kill the bull
But the relatively cheap gas prices are causing profit margins to slip for refiners, who have to pay top dollar for crude but aren't passing along the extra costs for consumers, yet.

"That doesn't seem sustainable," said Kevin Norrish, a commodities analyst at Barclays in London.

Norrish said it's likely refiners will scale back gas production, just as the higher demand holidays approach.

"At some point, it has to happen," he said.

Schork also said a lack of refining capacity means U.S. refiners will struggle to produce both gasoline and heating oil, so the country will end up importing more gas during the holidays. And he noted that importing gas with a weak U.S. dollar is an expensive proposition.

"We could easily see $3 by the end of the year," he said.

Not all analysts agree.

Nauman Barakat, an energy trader at Macquarie Futures, the trading arm of Macquarie investment bank, said gasoline prices near $3 a gallon have kept demand down.

The Energy Information Administration says gasoline demand has been about flat for the last few months, whereas it usually grows by about 1.5 percent a year.

"We're not going to see a similar increase in gas prices," said Barakat. "But if [oil] prices stay at these numbers, then of course it will be a different story come spring."

And therein lies the catch. All the analysts in this story expect crude to hit $100 a barrel.

"It's a matter of when, not if," said Norrish.

Norrish said it was fundamentals, not speculative investment money, driving oil prices - strong demand, falling inventories, no production increases from OPEC.

"The underlying market balance will continue to tighten, and if the geopolitical situation worsens, we'll get to $100 very quickly," he said.

Barakat said there are now more traders betting oil will rise to $100 than there were betting it would cross $90 back when crude was still in the $80s.

And Schork noted the sheer amount of oil contracts trading, and the fact that OPEC tried to cool prices back in September with a production increase, did nothing but send prices higher.

"There's a tremendous amount of bull energy in this market," he said. 'There's no reason we can't get to $100."
http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/26/news/ec ... /index.htm


...We need to drill now. If we do not get this down fast, we will hurt big time. We need to drill in Alaska, off California, Florida. WE need to do this or face possible shortest of energy resources. Very serious.