Tropical Depression GIL (EPAC): Disc, Analysis & Imagery

[Cyclenall]

THE CENTER OF GIL CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 13Z THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT DEAN MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED...

The forecasters are still having nightmares about Dean . I doubt Dean came back from the dead...or did he . Does Gil have anything to do with the remainders of Dean?

[windstorm99]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007
800 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER AMSR-E MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF GIL REMAINS BENEATH THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS...SUGGESTING THAT
EASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES...THE MOST
RECENT IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE -80C CLOUD TOP CANOPY IS
EXPANDING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT.

IT IS A BIT OF A MYSTERY WHETHER OR NOT THE UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...INDICATIVE BY THE RATHER LARGE AREA OF
STRATOCUMULUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE...WILL OUTWEIGH THE
EXPECTED DIMINISHING VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
GFDL AND THE SHIPS MAINTAIN A 40 TO 50 KT SYSTEM THROUGH 96
HOURS...WHILE THE SUPER ENSEMBLE...ICON...AND THE LGEM INDICATE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BEYOND 36 HOURS. THE LATTER INTENSITY
MODELS SEEM MORE REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY SINCE GIL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...INDICATING LITTLE CHANGE DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH A WEAKENING TREND TO A REMNANT LOW
EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...265/9...AS WELL AS THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AFTERWARD...A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS GIL ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. BEYOND 96 HOURS...AS GIL WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW OVER
COOLER WATERS...THE LOW LAYER EASTERLIES SHOULD INDUCE A TURN BACK
TO THE WEST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0300Z 19.1N 115.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 18.9N 116.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 18.9N 118.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 01/1200Z 18.9N 121.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 02/0000Z 19.2N 123.2W 35 KT
72HR VT 03/0000Z 19.9N 127.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 04/0000Z 20.5N 131.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 05/0000Z 20.5N 135.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[cycloneye]

197
WTPZ45 KNHC 310852
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE ONCE DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH GIL HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES FROM SSMI-S AND AMSU-B DEPICTED AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REMAINING
CONVECTION...RESULTING FROM THE 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR THE CYCLONE
IS STILL EXPERIENCING. BASED ON THE ABOVE AS WELL AS 35 KT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT.

THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AND
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 26C FOR THE NEXT
36 HOURS OR SO. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS WOULD PROMOTE STRENGTHENING
IN THE NEAR TERM...GIL IS MOVING INTO A RATHER STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
HOW MUCH THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR SEPARATES THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION FROM THE PRIMARY CONVECTION WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG GIL
WILL TAKE TO SPIN DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW. BOTH SHIPS AND FSSE
MAINTAIN GIL AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 4 OR 5 DAYS...
WHILE THE GFDL TAKES GIL CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2 TO 3
DAYS. BASED ON THE CURRENT APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE THE GFDL
SOLUTION APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN SHIPS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION...265/9...IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AS IS THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. GIL SHOULD
CONTINUE A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. ONCE GIL WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW OVER
COOLER WATERS...IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0900Z 19.0N 116.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 31/1800Z 18.9N 117.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/0600Z 19.0N 120.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 01/1800Z 19.2N 122.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 02/0600Z 19.7N 124.3W 35 KT
72HR VT 03/0600Z 20.5N 128.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 04/0600Z 20.5N 132.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 05/0600Z 20.5N 136.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

[cycloneye]

TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GIL IS EXHIBITING A STRONG
DIURNAL CYCLE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AFTER DEEP CONVECTION NEARLY
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC...MOST RECENT IMAGERY SHOWS
ANOTHER BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER. A TRMM
MICROWAVE PASS AT 1117Z INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF GIL
STILL REMAINS DISPLACED EAST OF THE CONVECTION...A RESULT OF
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 12Z REMAIN AT 35 KT...SO THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 31/0154Z SHOWED A SMALL AREA
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND THE CENTER...AND WAS USED TO
FORMULATE THE WIND RADII ESTIMATES.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AFFECTING THE INTENSITY OF GIL ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX A BIT...BUT SHOULD STILL PREVENT
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTER FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT LENGTH OF TIME. THE FORECAST TRACK NEARLY PARALLELS THE
27C SST ISOTHERM...SO OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A NEUTRAL
INFLUENCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. GIL IS ENTRAINING STABLE STRATOCUMULUS
AIR FROM ITS NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE INTO ITS CORE...WHICH IN TURN
WILL PROBABLY KEEP A LID ON ANY FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. ALL INDICATIONS
ARE THAT GIL WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN SHIPS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF 270/9 IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AS IS THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST POSITIONS IS
FAIRLY HIGH. GIL WILL CONTINUE ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT
NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHEAST. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BETWEEN 130W AND 140W IN THE 72-96 HOUR TIME FRAME...BUT NONE
OF THE FORECAST AIDS ARE HINTING AT A RECURVATURE TRACK. ONCE GIL
WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW OVER COOLER WATERS...IT WILL BE STEERED
BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND
PROBABLY NOT FEEL THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AT LONG-RANGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 19.1N 117.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 19.2N 119.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 19.4N 121.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 19.9N 123.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 20.4N 125.8W 35 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 20.7N 130.3W 30 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 21.0N 134.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 05/1200Z 21.0N 138.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER MUNDELL/BLAKE

[Coredesat]

Check out that LBAR:

[cycloneye]

329
WTPZ45 KNHC 312033
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007

ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GIL IS UNDERGOING ANOTHER
LULL IN DEEP CONVECTION...CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGLY DIURNAL CYCLE
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. VISUAL DATA SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CENTER WITH WELL ORGANIZED CLOUD LINES. AN SSM/I SATELLITE
PASS AT 1317Z WAS ALSO USED TO LOCATE THE CENTER...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1800Z REMAIN AT 35 KT...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH 35 KT AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. WITHOUT ANY OTHER SUPPORTING
DATA...THE WIND RADII REMAIN THE SAME AS WELL.

GIL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE T-NUMBER ESTIMATES ARE
LOWER THAN 12 HOURS AGO...THE DIURNAL PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION
SUGGESTS THEY WILL REBOUND TONIGHT...MATCHING THE CURRENT INTENSITY
VALUES ONCE AGAIN. BECAUSE THE FORECAST TRACK NEARLY PARALLELS THE
27C SST ISOTHERM...OCEAN TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A NEUTRAL
INFLUENCE. GIL IS ENTRAINING STABLE STRATOCUMULUS AIR FROM ITS
WESTERN FLANK INTO THE CORE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE IT WILL EITHER
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF 270/9 IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
AND THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT. GIL SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NONE
OF THE FORECAST AIDS ARE HINTING AT A RECURVATURE TRACK. ONCE GIL
WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW OVER COOLER WATERS...IT WILL BE STEERED
WESTWARD BY THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 18.9N 118.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 19.0N 120.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/1800Z 19.3N 122.5W 35 KT
36HR VT 02/0600Z 19.7N 124.7W 35 KT
48HR VT 02/1800Z 20.1N 126.7W 30 KT
72HR VT 03/1800Z 20.4N 131.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 04/1800Z 20.5N 135.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 05/1800Z 20.5N 139.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER MUNDELL/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

[b000
WTPZ45 KNHC 010831
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007

GIL REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY LARGE CIRCULATION BUT WITH
RATHER SCANT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T1.5 OR 25 KT...WHILE OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER. LIKE A FIELD GOAL SPLITTING THE UPRIGHTS...
NEARLY THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION OF GIL FELL SQUARELY IN THE GAP
BETWEEN QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES AT 0130 AND 0300 UTC. GIVEN THE
CONFLICTING AND LIMITED DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
UNCERTAIN BUT IS HELD AT 30 KT. SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH
THE CYCLONE ARE NEAR 27 CELSIUS BUT WILL GET GRADUALLY COOLER ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK...SO A STEADY DECLINE IS FORECAST. SINCE GIL
SHOULD REACH 24 CELSIUS WATERS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW BY THAT TIME.

GIL AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANTS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...WITH JUST A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AT 8-9 KT IS FORECAST THROUGH FIVE
DAYS...IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/0900Z 18.6N 120.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 01/1800Z 18.7N 121.4W 30 KT
24HR VT 02/0600Z 19.0N 123.2W 30 KT
36HR VT 02/1800Z 19.4N 125.0W 25 KT
48HR VT 03/0600Z 19.8N 126.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/0600Z 20.0N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 05/0600Z 20.0N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 06/0600Z 20.0N 137.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
][/b]

[HURAKAN]

507
WTPZ45 KNHC 011424
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007

GIL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SPORADIC CONVECTION THAT BARELY MEETS THE
REQUIREMENTS FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. OVERALL...IT SEEMS LIKE THE
CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THIS THINKING IS IN
LINE WITH DECREASING DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. A SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS
LIKELY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. GIL SHOULD BECOME
A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW...IF NOT SOONER.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST NOW...280/8. WEAK
RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF GIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAY AND FORCE A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE TRACK IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 18.8N 120.7W 25 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 19.0N 121.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 02/1200Z 19.3N 123.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 03/0000Z 19.6N 125.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 03/1200Z 19.9N 127.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/1200Z 20.5N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 05/1200Z 20.5N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

325
WTPZ25 KNHC 011424
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007
1500 UTC SAT SEP 01 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 120.7W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 120.7W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 120.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.0N 121.9W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.3N 123.8W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.6N 125.6W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.9N 127.3W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.5N 130.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N 134.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 120.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Better luck in 2013.

[HURAKAN]

859
WTPZ45 KNHC 012035
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007

A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER GIL NEAR 1400Z INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS
WERE NO MORE THAN 25 KT...AND PROBABLY LESS. THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AND IT IS LIKELY THAT GIL WILL NO
LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT A GENEROUS 25 KT. THE REMNANT LOW STAGE OF THE CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY LAST FOR A FEW DAYS AS THE DEPRESSION UNWINDS OVER
COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...280/8.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLOW WEST
OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 19.1N 121.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 19.3N 122.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.6N 124.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.9N 126.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.2N 127.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 04/1800Z 20.2N 131.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[RL3AO]

Gil survived longer than I thought he would. The next advisory should be the last.

[HURAKAN]

004
WTPZ45 KNHC 020845
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007

AN EARLIER SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY SMALL IN
COVERAGE...CONTINUES TO INTERMITTENTLY BURST OVER THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 25 KT AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT. COOLER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE
A WEAKENING CAUSING GIL TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS...FINALLY DISSIPATING IN 3 DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS A PERSISTENT 285/8...AND THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE IN THIS GENERAL MOTION WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLIES
UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 19.5N 123.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 19.8N 124.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 03/0600Z 20.2N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 127.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 04/0600Z 20.5N 129.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 05/0600Z 20.5N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB


For those that may still care!!!

[HURAKAN]

630
WTPZ25 KNHC 021443
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007
1500 UTC SUN SEP 02 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 124.0W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 124.0W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 123.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.0N 125.1W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.3N 126.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.5N 128.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.5N 129.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 124.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON GIL.

$$
FORECASTER MUNDELL/PASCH


Much awaited.

[CrazyC83]

A bit late, but don't let the crash on you! Better luck in 2013!

[Cyclenall]

I noticed this:

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 030453
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 PM PDT SUN SEP 2 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HENRIETTE LOCATED ABOUT 135 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES
MEXICO.

THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL IS LOCATED ABOUT
950 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB

Will poor old Gil regenerate, or was Roberts/Knabb just tired and made a mistake?