EJ’s Forecasts
Track/Model Reasoning 1
Tropical Storm Karen slowly moving westward in the Atlantic Ocean
Tropical Storm Karen formed this morning out of Tropical Depression 10. Karen currently has winds of 40 MPH. While development is expected over the next few days, I don’t see Karen becoming a hurricane, mainly because Karen is considered to be “dry”, meaning that it doesn’t have enough moisture to match its incredible size. Its size will also limit its intensification over the next few days. My new intensity forecast shows steady intensification over the next few days, and holding its intensification after 96 hours.
The track for Karen is very hard to decide on right now. There are 2 possible scenarios, the first one, and the one that the National Hurricane Center seems to be agreeing with the most, is a NW and N turn with Karen starting in about 3 days, causing it to miss the US, Caribbean, and Bermuda. The other scenario, which Derek Ortt is relying on more or less, which takes Karen more westward, bringing it near the NE Caribbean in 5 days. Major models that support scenario 1 are the GFS, HWRF and the GFDL, while major models supporting scenario 1 are the CMC and the UKMET. It should be noted that the last few runs of the UKMET have been consistent in showing the westward motion. It should also be noted that the past few runs of the GFDL have been trending more westward, but only a little. The models showing scenario 1 show a weakness in the ridge of high pressure dominating the Atlantic Ocean, bringing it northward. Again, it should be noted that the ridge has been underestimated much this season, and I believe that it will remain dominant in the Atlantic, and that it is what is seen by the UKMET, which keeps the general westward motion constant through the next 5 days. My cone for this advisory represents scenario 2 through 5 days.
After 5 days, almost anything is possible, as shown on the graph.
INITIAL 40 MPH
12HR 45 MPH
24HR 50 MPH
36HR 55 MPH
48HR 60 MPH
72HR 65 MPH
96HR 60 MPH
120HR 55 MPH
