TD Six-E=TS Cosme=TD Cosme in EPAC,CPAC

[Chacor]

412
WTPA41 PHFO 190239
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
500 PM HST WED JUL 18 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME MAINLY CONSISTS OF A LOW CLOUD SWIRL WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION OCCASIONALLY FLARING UP NEAR THE CENTER. THERE
HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS BASED ON
SATELLITE ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF COSME REMAINS
THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THIS RIDGE THROUGH 5 DAYS. COSME SHOULD
CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS SHOWN BY MOST MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP
COSME WELL SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BAM MODELS
WHICH BRING COSME OVER THE BIG ISLAND WITH THE UKMET ALSO CLIPPING
THE BIG ISLAND. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASICALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY KEEPING COSME AT 30 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING
IT TO A REMNANT LOW IN 120 HOURS. COSME WILL REMAIN OVER 77 DEGREE
WATER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY OVER
WARMER WATERS OF AROUND 80 DEGREES BY DAY 5. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SOME EASTERLY WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SHEAR IS THEN FORECAST TO RELAX A BIT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE WEST
BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS COSME BACK TO
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT 120 HOURS PROBABLY DUE TO THE
WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THAT THE SHEAR
WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 15.3N 141.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 15.4N 143.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 15.9N 146.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 16.6N 149.2W 30 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 17.1N 152.3W 30 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 17.8N 158.4W 30 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 18.2N 164.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 24/0000Z 18.3N 170.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Chacor]

410
WTPA31 PHFO 190239
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
500 PM HST WED JUL 18 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...

AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 141.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 960 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII AND ABOUT 1165
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...15.3 N...141.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Cyclenall]

By the time 5:00 pm EST rolls around (2:00 pm PST), Cosme will be right on the darn line. How are they going to decide who writes the next advisory?

The NRL still has it at 35 knots, a TS. Too bad convection weakened a lot, hopefully another burst later on to keep it rolling.

once Cosme crosses 140W the CPHC assumes command.

I said on the line (140W line). If the LLC is right on the line itself (50% in the Cpac and 50% in the Epac), how do they decide? The NHC did it this time.

The tracking map the CPHC gives is different this year from last year and is more like the NHC's map. There is also a product missing.

[Chacor]

822
TXPN40 PHFO 190620
TCSCP

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0620 UTC THU JUL 19 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME LOCATED AT 15.2N 141.9W AT 19/0530 UTC
BASED ON 4 KM RESOLUTION IR IMAGERY AND ANIMATION. POSITION ACCURATE
WITHIN 30 NM. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM ONE MINUTE MEAN WIND SPEED 35 KT.
MOVEMENT TOWARDS 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.

T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HOURS

REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS ROLLED OVER CIRCULATION CENTER SINCE 6 HOURS
AGO. DATA-T OF 2.5 BASED WEAK CDO PATTERN. MET AND PT ARE BOTH 2.5.
FINAL-T BASED ON PT 2.5.

$$

MATSUDA

19/0600 UTC 15.3N 142.4W T2.0/2.0 COSME -- Central Pacific Ocean

877
WHXX01 KMIA 190723
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0723 UTC THU JUL 19 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME (EP062007) 20070719 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070719 0600 070719 1800 070720 0600 070720 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 142.2W 16.2N 144.8W 16.9N 147.5W 17.5N 150.4W
BAMD 15.5N 142.2W 16.0N 145.0W 16.7N 147.7W 17.3N 149.9W
BAMM 15.5N 142.2W 16.1N 145.0W 16.8N 147.7W 17.3N 150.4W
LBAR 15.5N 142.2W 16.0N 144.9W 16.9N 147.7W 17.8N 150.5W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 33KTS 32KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 33KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070721 0600 070722 0600 070723 0600 070724 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 153.3W 18.7N 159.0W 18.8N 165.1W 19.2N 171.2W
BAMD 17.7N 151.8W 18.4N 154.4W 19.3N 156.9W 20.1N 160.8W
BAMM 17.7N 152.9W 18.0N 157.0W 18.3N 161.1W 19.7N 165.6W
LBAR 18.5N 153.2W 19.3N 158.3W 19.8N 162.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 32KTS 27KTS 26KTS 30KTS
DSHP 32KTS 27KTS 26KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.5N LONCUR = 142.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 15.0N LONM12 = 139.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 15.1N LONM24 = 137.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Chacor]

I find the latest discussion interesting:

000
WTPA41 PHFO 190852
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
1100 PM HST WED JUL 18 2007

COSME IS STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFE.

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AN AREA OF COLD CLOUDS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF COSME HAS EXPANDED AND COVERED THE CENTER. THAT MADE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE CENTER ON CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY...BUT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 0513 DMSP PASS SHOWED THE CENTER NICELY. THESE DATA CAME IN AFTER WE REQUESTED THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SO WE SHIFTED THE 0600 UTC POSITION TO MATCH THE LOCATION FROM THE MICROWAVE PASS. THERE WAS ALSO A NICE QUIKSCAT PASS OVER COSME AT 0316 UTC. THE QUICKSCAT SHOWED 30 KT WINDS EXTENDING AS MUCH AS 90 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

A RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO STEER COSME TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS MOVEMENT. THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN CONTINUING THE WEST NORTHWEST MOTION AND WE HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK.

WHILE THE TRACK HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...FORECASTING THE INTENSITY REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN. COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER FAIRLY COOL WATER...ABOUT 77 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION. THE LATEST CIMSS VERTICAL PRODUCT SHOWED FAVORABLE SHEAR VALUES FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS...THEN A RETURN TO NEUTRAL VALUES. WE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY UNCHANGED AT 30 KT... BUT IF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS IT IS LIKELY WE WOULD TAKE COSME BACK UP TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY ON THE NEXT BULLETIN. COSME SHOULD REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATER WITH FAIRLY LOW SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SO IF THE SYSTEM DOES LOSE ALL IT/S CONVECTION DURING THAT PERIOD...IT MAY WELL BECOME TOO WEAK TO HAVE MUCH CHANCE TO RE-INTENSIFY. IF COSME MANAGES TO KEEP SOME CONVECTION WHEN IT MOVES WEST OF 155W...IT WILL START MOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATER. IF SHEAR REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH AT THAT POINT...COSME MIGHT WELL RE-INTENSIFY. THESE UNCERTAINTIES KEEP OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST RATHER LOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 15.4N 142.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 15.9N 144.9W 30 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 16.4N 147.9W 30 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 17.0N 151.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 17.5N 154.1W 30 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 18.1N 160.2W 30 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 18.4N 166.1W 25 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 18.4N 171.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON/DONALDSON

[HURAKAN]

This, a TS?



It seems since CPAC tropical cyclone activity is so limited, every system they receive they want something extraordinary!!! These guys are having too many luaus!!!

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

HE IS ALIVE!!! BARELY!!!

[Chacor]

Latest SHIPS run takes it back to TS from 24-48 hours and at 120 hours.

Code: Select all

725
WHXX01 KMIA 191324
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1324 UTC THU JUL 19 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME (EP062007) 20070719 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070719  1200   070720  0000   070720  1200   070721  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.5N 143.6W   16.3N 146.2W   16.9N 149.0W   17.6N 152.0W
BAMD    15.5N 143.6W   16.3N 146.4W   17.0N 148.9W   17.6N 151.1W
BAMM    15.5N 143.6W   16.3N 146.5W   16.9N 149.2W   17.4N 152.0W
LBAR    15.5N 143.6W   16.0N 146.2W   17.0N 148.7W   17.8N 151.6W
SHIP        30KTS          32KTS          35KTS          35KTS
DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          35KTS          35KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070721  1200   070722  1200   070723  1200   070724  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    18.1N 154.9W   19.0N 161.0W   19.5N 167.5W   20.6N 174.0W
BAMD    17.9N 152.8W   18.0N 155.2W   18.3N 157.6W   18.7N 160.7W
BAMM    17.7N 154.5W   17.6N 159.0W   17.6N 163.2W   18.5N 167.5W
LBAR    18.4N 154.3W   19.1N 159.1W   19.7N 163.1W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        35KTS          32KTS          31KTS          35KTS
DSHP        35KTS          32KTS          31KTS          35KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  15.5N LONCUR = 143.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =  15.2N LONM12 = 140.7W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  15.1N LONM24 = 138.3W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[HURAKAN]

Maybe SHIPS is seeing something I'm not, but it looks pretty unfavorable for Cosme to intensify.

[Chacor]

The CPHC no longer calls for dissipation and keeps it as a 30-knot depression through 120 hours.

000
WTPA21 PHFO 191430
TCMCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
1500 UTC THU JUL 19 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 144.3W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 144.3W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 143.6W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.1N 146.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.6N 149.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.1N 152.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.5N 155.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.1N 161.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 18.3N 167.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 18.2N 173.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 144.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[Chacor]

250
WTPA41 PHFO 191458
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062007
500 AM HST THU JUL 19 2007

SINCE LAST EVENING...THE CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF COSME
HAS DISSIPATED BUT NEW CONVECTION HAS FORMED WEST OF THE CENTER. IT
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER USING CONVENTIONAL
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 0708 UTC...1003
UTC AND 1127 UTC HAS ALLOWED US TO KEEP A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK.
WE CAN BE PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT COSME HAS CONTINUED HEADING ALONG
THE SAME DIRECTION...GENERALLY WESTWARD...AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED...
16 MPH...OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED
FROM 1.5 TO 2.5. THE AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS WAS 30 KT.
WE THINK THE 2.5 DVORAK ESTIMATE AND THE AMSU INTENSITY ARE
REPRESENTATIVE AND HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT.

A RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO STEER COSME TOWARD THE WEST AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT. THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN CONTINUING THE WEST NORTHWEST MOTION AND WE HAVE MADE
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN. WE HAVE BEEN A BIT
SURPRISED THAT CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED AROUND COSME AND THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS REMAINED SO WELL ORGANIZED WHILE IT IS MOVING OVER
FAIRLY COOL WATER...ABOUT 77 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. THE LATEST GFDL AND
SHIP FORECASTS NOW SHOW COSME STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY TO MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 36 HOURS. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN WATER
TEMPERATURE OR SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS...WE ARE FORECASTING NO
CHANGE IN INTENSITY. AFTER 60 HOURS...WE EXPECT COSME TO BE MOVING
OVER WARMER WATER BUT ALSO INTO AN AREA WITH STRONGER VERTICAL
SHEAR. IT IS HARD TO SAY WHICH OF THESE FACTORS WILL PREVAIL. WE
HAVE CHANGED THE FORECASTS BEYOND 72 HOURS TO KEEP THE INTENSITY
UNCHANGED RATHER THAN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AS WE HAD DONE IN OUR
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PAST 72
HOURS REMAINS LOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 15.7N 144.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 16.1N 146.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 16.6N 149.6W 30 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 17.1N 152.7W 30 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 17.5N 155.8W 30 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 18.1N 161.8W 30 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 18.3N 167.7W 30 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 18.2N 173.3W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[HURAKAN]

Like the War of Iraq, Cosme never ends!!! Coming back to life in a strong note. Lets see how long the convection lasts.

[Derek Ortt]

Where is the recon for this system? This is obviously a threat to Hawaii and should be flown starting tomorrow. Latest sats show this this has likely came back to TS intensity. Would be nice to have a plane, or will we have a repeat of Gaston, a US landfall without recon

[HURAKAN]

Where is the recon for this system? This is obviously a threat to Hawaii and should be flown starting tomorrow. Latest sats show this this has likely came back to TS intensity. Would be nice to have a plane, or will we have a repeat of Gaston, a US landfall without recon

No fly has been scheduled.

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-057

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

[Derek Ortt]

I know, which I cannot understand at all. Could always cancel the flight tomorrow (would only need a single pass through tomorrow followed by a day or so of 6 hourly fixes)

[HURAKAN]

COSME CRANKING IT UP!!!

[Weatherfreak000]

This thing has no chance of being well organized if it were to hit Hawaii with that substantial layer of dry air ahead of it.


Nothing to get all bent outta shape, just a few strong thunderstorms and wind.

[HurricaneRobert]

Looks pretty. Down 1 mb.

[Cyclenall]

Where is the recon for this system? This is obviously a threat to Hawaii and should be flown starting tomorrow. Latest sats show this this has likely came back to TS intensity. Would be nice to have a plane, or will we have a repeat of Gaston, a US landfall without recon

Recon for a tropical depression that is not even forecast to hit Hawaii? I would love recon to get some real data on it, but for some rain and thunder?

This thing has no chance of being well organized if it were to hit Hawaii with that substantial layer of dry air ahead of it.

It's holding up well right now and there is dry air.

I see the CPHC wants the convection to remain for a longer period of time before having it back to TS strength.