Tropical Storm FLOSSIE (CPAC): Discussions, Analysis and Ima

[Chacor]

My guess:

125 mph
945 mb

I would say higher but it was just upgraded this morning, but it still looks to strong for Category 2, so I'm guessing it's a Cat 3 right now

Hurricane Daniel had a 948 mbar pressure at 115 kts. There's no way Flossie will have 945 mbar at only 110 kt, unless the environment right now is generally of a lower pressure.

The NHC's pressure for EPac (and I believe for all storms without recon or observations, maybe a met can correct me on that) is based on the Dvorak scale (T4.5, so 18Z initial pressure had 979 mbar).

For what it's worth,
11/0000 UTC 12.7N 137.8W T4.5/4.5 FLOSSIE -- East Pacific Ocean

[Ptarmigan]

Flossie looks impressive for a Category 1 hurricane. It seems like the Pacific is more likely to have annular hurricanes.

[Chacor]

At 00Z:
TAFB fix is T5.0/90 kts
SAB fix remains T4.5/77 kts.

[HURAKAN]

517
WHXX01 KMIA 110040
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC SAT AUG 11 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE (EP092007) 20070811 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070811 0000 070811 1200 070812 0000 070812 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.7N 137.7W 13.0N 140.0W 13.4N 142.1W 13.6N 144.0W
BAMD 12.7N 137.7W 12.9N 140.3W 13.2N 142.7W 13.4N 144.9W
BAMM 12.7N 137.7W 12.8N 140.2W 12.9N 142.6W 13.1N 144.8W
LBAR 12.7N 137.7W 13.0N 140.1W 13.9N 142.5W 14.7N 144.7W
SHIP 75KTS 79KTS 80KTS 79KTS
DSHP 75KTS 79KTS 80KTS 79KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070813 0000 070814 0000 070815 0000 070816 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 146.3W 15.5N 150.6W 16.9N 154.5W 18.4N 158.3W
BAMD 13.8N 147.0W 15.1N 151.2W 17.4N 152.9W 20.3N 152.2W
BAMM 13.4N 146.9W 14.1N 151.2W 15.0N 154.4W 16.2N 156.8W
LBAR 15.4N 146.7W 17.1N 149.8W 18.6N 151.6W 20.6N 151.6W
SHIP 75KTS 68KTS 57KTS 48KTS
DSHP 75KTS 68KTS 57KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 137.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 135.4W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 133.1W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 40NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
NNNN

12 more hrs in the EPAC.

[Chacor]

Held at 75 kts (or at most upped to 80 kts) at next advisory would be my guess, based on 70 kt CIRA analysis, 77 kt from SAB and 90 kt from TAFB. Doesn't seem like it's strengthened as much as people are saying it has. Appearance isn't everything.

[Derek Ortt]

I whimped out and went with 80KT... was going to go with 85KT since I was also estimating at cat 2 intensity

[Chacor]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 110234
TCDEP4
HURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092007
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2007

WHILE FLOSSIE HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE VIGOR...THE EYE IS NOW A
BIT RAGGED. STILL...THIS COULD BE A TEMPORARY TREND AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75 KT IN LINE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE
VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A
LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
FLOSSIE WILL REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS
COOLER WATER AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR. THERE IS SOME
DIFFERENCE IN THE HOW THE GLOBAL MODELS RESOLVE THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EVENTUAL IMPACT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPER ENSEMBLE.

FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH
WITH AN ALMOST DUE WESTWARD MOTION OR 275 DEGREES AT ABOUT 11 KT.
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT WITH SOME RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY. THE HWRF HAS SHIFTED SOUTH WHILE THE NOGAPS HAS
SHIFTED NORTH. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS TRACK
MODELS IS THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE
EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO
LIE ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BUT IT SHOWS
FLOSSIE MAINTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH LONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS
DESPITE ITS TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFDL HAS
CONSISTENTLY DEMONSTRATED A NORTHWARD BIAS FOR THIS STORM. THE
EUROPEAN MODEL CONTINUES TO LIE ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE BUT IT SHOWS FLOSSIE SHEARING APART AT DAYS 4 AND 5. IT
IS MUCH TOO SOON TO DECIDE WHICH OF THESE TWO SCENARIOS IS MOST
LIKELY SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT A LITTLE SLOWER BEYOND DAY 3.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0300Z 12.7N 138.3W 75 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 12.9N 140.0W 80 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 13.4N 142.3W 80 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 13.9N 144.6W 75 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 14.4N 146.9W 70 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 15.5N 151.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 17.0N 155.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 18.5N 159.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[HurricaneBill]

just checked the Hawaiian TV station's websites... and they call some of us complacent... not a mention of Flossie at all

Well, you have to keep in mind, hurricanes hardly ever strike Hawaii from the east. Usually, they move up from south of the islands like Iwa and Iniki did.

[Derek Ortt]

I know, though Dot in 1957 made landfall in Kauai from the east

I'm thinking more of an Emilia track at the moment

[pojo]

We are in the process of launching aircrafts to investigate Flossie.

[srainhoutx]

We are in the process of launching aircrafts to investigate Flossie.

Thanks, pojo.

[Chacor]

We are in the process of launching aircrafts to investigate Flossie.

Keep up the great work, all you hurricane hunters.

[pojo]

It's in the POD.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 101330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT FRI 10 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 121/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-079

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE NEAR 15.3N 151.2W AT 13/1800Z

[Chacor]

Question, Shannon... where do you guys fly out from for Flossie? Honolulu?

[pojo]

Question, Shannon... where do you guys fly out from for Flossie? Honolulu?

One aircraft is flying out of Hickam AFB, Honolulu... and the other will intercept the storm from Travis AFB on its way over to Hickam AFB.

The reasoning behind that.... crew rest... the second plane is actually leaving 18 hours after the first...hence the reason for intercepting from Travis. The first plane should be in Hawaii already.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like a major. Why do I say that, because the eye is becoming clear with reds starting to wrap.

[Coredesat]

Definitely looking much better. Dvorak estimates should be interesting.



EDIT: The estimate on the FNMOC site (which gets data from NHC, just like NRL) is up to 95 kt/965 mb!

[Coredesat]

11/0600 UTC 12.6N 138.8W T5.5/5.5 FLOSSIE -- East Pacific Ocean

[Cyclenall]

This is easily a category 2 hurricane now, with major status in sight. The current strength is most likely 90-95 knots now. The FNMOC site has it at 95 knots, up 20 knots in 6 hours which is RI. Why doesn't the NRL site work right now?

The following post is NOT an official forecast/product and should not be used as such. It's just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Fifth % chance of Hurricane Flossie becoming a:

Tropical Depression: 100%
Tropical Storm: 100%
Hurricane: 100%
Category 2 Hurricane: 99% (Should be 100%, not NHC official)
Category 3 Hurricane: 65% (up 15% since Friday afternoon)
Category 4 Hurricane: 25%
Category 5 Hurricane: 3% ~ (Mostly unknown due the fact this could cross into the Cpac and then go the "Ioke way" by small chance since it's August and that time of year)

[Thunder44]

651
WHXX01 KMIA 110645
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0645 UTC SAT AUG 11 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE (EP092007) 20070811 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070811 0600 070811 1800 070812 0600 070812 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.6N 138.8W 12.8N 141.0W 12.9N 142.8W 12.8N 144.9W
BAMD 12.6N 138.8W 12.7N 141.4W 12.9N 143.9W 13.0N 146.1W
BAMM 12.6N 138.8W 12.8N 141.0W 13.1N 143.0W 13.5N 144.8W
LBAR 12.6N 138.8W 13.0N 141.2W 13.9N 143.6W 14.6N 145.7W
SHIP 95KTS 100KTS 98KTS 92KTS
DSHP 95KTS 100KTS 98KTS 92KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070813 0600 070814 0600 070815 0600 070816 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 147.1W 14.7N 150.9W 16.0N 154.4W 17.5N 158.3W
BAMD 13.3N 148.2W 14.6N 152.2W 16.4N 154.4W 19.3N 155.2W
BAMM 14.0N 146.6W 15.3N 149.9W 16.5N 152.4W 17.9N 155.1W
LBAR 15.6N 147.5W 17.6N 150.3W 19.3N 151.7W 21.3N 151.9W
SHIP 86KTS 70KTS 55KTS 42KTS
DSHP 86KTS 70KTS 55KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 138.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 136.6W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 134.3W
WNDCUR = 95KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 965MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 60NM

$$
NNNN

6z models initialize Flossie at 95kts, that's almost a Cat 3.