CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Brent]

Still a good ways east of the Islands Friday Morning. Much slower.

[gatorcane]

96 HR Surface

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

more north with this run.....

this is what South Florida DOES NOT want to see...or the SE Coast of the US...

bullseye at Puerto Rico..

[KFDM Meteorologist]

96 hr 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif

[destruction92]

72 500, High is over the SE

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

This high does not look that intense and TD 4 is still hundreds of miles to the east of the Windward Islands...that high in the SE has no significant effect whatsoever at that point of the forecast track. Furthermore, there is a weakness between the High in the SE and the High over the north central Atlantic...if anything, there appears to be an open path for Bermuda. But once again, we're talking about a time in the forecast period where TD 04 is still hundreds of miles east of the Windward Islands.

The mentioning of the High seems rather unimportant for now...unless it decides to wait for TD 4 for 5 days or so and expands to fill in the weakness just offshore the east coast of the U.S.

[cheezyWXguy]

Even though I think it initialized a little weak, 1008 instead of 1005, It strengthens the storm quicker, into the 990's at hr 90, and is considerably slower. This could get very interesting

[artist]

Those in the caribbean don't forget this site to get storm reports, etc. when the time comes.
Thanks recurve for the link again!

http://stormcarib.com/

[Wx_Warrior]

Cheezy...what do you interpret this run? I know it will change more than not but what about this one?

[destruction92]

72 500, High is over the SE

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

i live in Texas is that bad if the high is over the SE

No. It does not imply bad news for Texas....but bad news for the Lesser and Greater Antilles.
That high is over the Southeast while TD 4 is a good 300-500 miles east of the Windward Islands...and there is a weakness off the east coast between the relatively weak high over the SE and stronger high in the north central Atlantic.

[x-y-no]

The 12z run is *much* slower than last night's 0z run. 0z at 108 hours had it well inside the NE Caribbean, 12z at 96 hours is still nearly a day short of the islands.

[bvigal]

Depending on 91L, this might be Erin and not Dean...

I would laugh my head off it that happened, since a meteorologist down here has been calling this "Hurricane Dean" for 5 days now - it would serve him right!

Pucker factor is not in play yet, still too far out. We've seen these things turn last 2 days too many times to make up our mind 5 days out. But I hope everyone is getting prepared, such as it is. Problem on islands, how ever much water, boards, batteries, lamp oil, etc. is on the island 5 days out, that's all there will be - no time to restock, and not enough to go around.

P.S. - How about a separate topic for the 4,000 "Do you think it will hit where I live?" posts??????!!!!!!!!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

114 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

[HURRICANELONNY]

I say with the High building back in and a strong one at that. Texas or even Mexico could be the biggest threat.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

114 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif

[Brent]

Finally approaching the Islands SATURDAY Morning.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

[x-y-no]

114 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

gonna be a much more northerly track

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Weakness east of the Bahamas.

[Opal storm]

It could recurve on this run just before getting to the SE. Let's see.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, this run is looking much different. It will be interesting to see what the end result is.

[Sanibel]

Destruction92: Furthermore, there is a weakness between the High in the SE and the High over the north central Atlantic...if anything, there appears to be an open path for Bermuda.

I'm glad someone else sees that weakness in the ridge clearly visible on satellite. You can see the previous surging ridge now backing up and slowing down with the weakness flowing upward near Bermuda.

I won't challenge GFS just yet because it has proved accurate up to now and the system IS tracking west. It's all a matter of how far south it passes under that point and misses the weakness.

I'm thinking the Hawaii storm is telling us the atmosphere is becoming favorable.

[wxmann_91]

114 Hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

[img][/img]

gonna be a much more northerly track

The 500mb anticyclone previously progged east of FL has been replaced with a trough, thus the northward drag.

Gotta love the consistency of the Globals WRT the synoptic pattern.