Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[windstorm99]

[jhamps10]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2007

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...AND TOBAGO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF
MARGARITA...AND FOR THE DUTCH NETHERLAND ANTILLES ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER ST. LUCIA EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...EAST OF GRENADA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BEFORE DAWN ON SATURDAY...AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. BARBADOS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33
MILS PER HOUR...54 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

NHC 11PM advisory.

[Evil Jeremy]

Still a TD tonight. Its official.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Rita was late September, the heat of summer here in HOU definitely wasn't as bad pre-Rita. Rita knew her climatology, that Texas hurricanes after mid-September are rare, and made the turn to hit just on the Louisiana side of the line.

Not that Beaumont didn't get 100 mph+ winds, and even my house lost power for about 12 hours, and we had some fences, a few trees, and a lot of branches down around the neighborhood.


This, if it did make the Gulf, could be near Houston close to the 107th anniversary (September 8th) of the Cat 4 8k dead Galveston storm. Climatology wise, Texas still has a couple more weeks of extreme nervousness.

But I suspect a track similar to/ even South of, Dean. In my untrained opinion.


October, 1 hurricane (cat 1 Jerry weekend that Peter Gardere and the Cash twins broke OU's multi-year winning streak, and started a 4 year Texas winning streak, while I watched from last row in Cotton Bowl in 90ºF (32ºC) heatin 1989) in six decades, says the Autumnal return of the jet is our friend.

[CrazyC83]

Felix will be a September storm unless the post-analysis confirms differently than the operational analysis.

[HURAKAN]

33 mph @ 85 miles from the center, and not 40 mph near the center???

[Sanibel]

If Barbados has 33mph sustained that far from the center it almost certainly has to be at Tropical Storm intensity. Barbados is far from the center.

[skysummit]

33 mph @ 85 miles from the center, and not 40 mph near the center???

LOL...yea, no kidding. What's up with that?

[CrazyC83]

If Barbados has 33mph sustained that far from the center it almost certainly has to be at Tropical Storm intensity. Barbados is far from the center.

This should be Tropical Storm Felix with that data. That cannot be the strongest winds in the storm...

[jhamps10]

Felix will be a September storm unless the post-analysis confirms differently than the operational analysis.

Which I bet it will, since barbados has 33 MPH, and what 85 mph from the center? sorry but in my eyes this really should have gotten the upgrade at 11.

[Sanibel]

Well, sometimes a nearby depression can boost the already strong tradewinds in the area.

This won't matter in three days.

[Ed Mahmoud]

If Barbados has 33mph sustained that far from the center it almost certainly has to be at Tropical Storm intensity. Barbados is far from the center.

Lets wait to see the discussion. I'm sure Mr. Beven has his reasons.

[RL3AO]

When I was watching recon, the strongest winds appeared to be well north of the center. They didn't find any winds above 30kt near the center.

[wxman57]

BAM medium and shallow have shifted north on their 00Z run toward the NE tip of the Yucatan at the end of 5 days. Wonder if this will be a trend?

Those models probably won't see the ridge building westward north of the storm. They shouldn't be used in this case. All global/dynamic models forecast strong ridge north of the storm Sun-Tue, so a hook to the NW is unlikely. Remember, we had the same issue with the models during Dean.

[Ed Mahmoud]

:uarrow: There is a main models thread.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97506&start=0

I know, I was just explaining why I thought this had little chance of being a GOMEX storm. I wasn't going deep into the models, just showing the mega-500 mb ridge, the protector of the Gulf Coast.

[CrazyC83]

This guy is just screaming for his chance:

[miamicanes177]

31/2345 UTC 11.4N 59.2W T2.5/2.5

And this is still a depression? WOW...best looking depression of all time in my opinion.

[windstorm99]

Infrared loop....

[Sanibel]

You're looking at another "gear change" folks!

[jhamps10]

Wow, looking at the satellite loop, I see totally NO reason AT ALL why this should not be felix right now. in fact t numbers of 2.5, most times we will see an upgrade at 1.5 or even 2.0, There is NO excuse in my book right now.